Water Allocation Under Distribution Losses: Comparing Alternative Institutions

The distribution of water resources is characterized by increasing returns to scale. Distribution systems link water generation to its end-use. Standard economic analysis overlooks the interaction among these micro-markets - generation, distribution and end-use. We compare water allocation when there is market power in each micro-market. These outcomes are compared with benchmark cases - social planning and a competitive business-as-usual regime. Simulations suggest that institutions with market power in generation and end-use generate significantly higher welfare than the distribution monopoly and the competitive regime. However, if the policy goal is to maximize the size of the grid, a distribution monopoly is preferred.infrastructure; market power; spatial models; vertical integration; water markets

A NOTE ON THE MEASUREMENT OF TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, EFFICIENCY AND TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE USING DATA ENVELOPMENT ANALYSIS

This paper reviews approaches to the measurement of total factor productivity, efficiency and technological change. Nonfrontier analysis assumes that the production technology is efficient and technological change is equivalent to total factor productivity change. On the other hand, the frontier approach explicitly considers inefficiency of production. In the presence of inefficiency, total factor productivity consists of efficiency and technological change. The traditional parametric approach to technological change may give results with technological bias that are sensitive to a specific parametric form applied in the analysis. The advantage of the nonparametric frontier approach using Data Envelopment Analysis in productivity analysis has been recently recognized. The Malmquist productivity index (Fare, Grosskopf, Kindgren and Ross, 1989) as a nonparametric frontier approach, is not constrained by specific functional forms and has shown a relative advantage in productivity analysis in developing countries where price information is limited and only quantity data is available. The Malmquist productivity index can be decomposed into efficiency change and technological change, which can provide useful information for policy analysis

Analysis of Meteorological Measurements made over Three Rainy Seasons and Rainfall Simulations in Sinazongwe District, Southern Province, Zambia

Zambia has frequently been affected by abnormal weather and droughts. Our research focused on the type of meteorological data required to assist farmers\u27 efforts to avoid the risks associated with these weather conditions. We conducted local meteorological observations from September 2007 to August 2010 at three sites in Sinazongwe District, Zambia. The three rainy seasons of this period coincided in sequence with La Niña (normal) and El Niño conditions. The mean annual precipitation for the three years of our study exceeded 1200 mm, which was considerably more than the regional annual average rainfall from 1970 to 2000 of a round 800 mm per year. We used detailed analyses of intraseasonal variations in other meteorological elements to attempt to explain the high precipitation.Local circulation dominated in our research area, while heavy rain induced by convection in the afternoon and night might account for precipitation exceeding the norm. We numerically simulated meteorological conditions over the past decade to determine whether the annual precipitation observed since September 2007 indeed exceeded the norm. lntra-seasonal variations in precipitation, such as high rainfall in December during the 2007/2008 rainy season, a gradual increase in cumulative precipitation through 2008/2009, and high rainfall in February in the 2009/2010 rainy season were possibly controlled by El Niño - Southern Oscil lation. Our results suggest that annual variations in precipitation are common in this area and that the precipitation we observed did not necessarilyexceed the norm

Indigenous Climate Information and Modern Meteorological Records in Sinazongwe District, Southern Province, Zambia

In 2007, we conducted field research in Sinazongwe District in Southern Province, Zambia, focusing on collecting indigenous information concerning the local climate, which was often embodied in proverbs involving weather forecasts. The indigenous information was compared with recently collected meteorological records and a relationship between popular folk knowledge, local climate, and global climate factors such as ENSO (El Nino and the Southern Oscillation) was suggested. Proverbs related to agriculture and climate were categorized into four types of indicators used to forecast rain: the emergence of butterflies; tree characteristics (producing shoots, flowering, and dropping water); wind direction, wind speed, and temperature; and wind sound. The first two types are based on sea sonal changes in life forms, and the latter two use wind variations produced by synoptic pattern changes

Building Resilience for Food and Nutrition Security in Africa: Focusing on Small-Scale Farmers

大会講演Plenary LectureFood and nutrition security has become an important policy agenda in the international community. Sustainable Development Goal 2 aims to end hunger, achieve food and nutrition security, and promote sustainable agriculture. However, this goal will likely be challenged by emerging risks such as climate change in many developing countries. The Six Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that climate change will affect food security, especially in Africa, since the majority in the rural areas are rainfed small-scale farmers who are directly affected by climate change. Thus, policy intervention is urgently required to build climate resilience in the agricultural sector. To envision nutrition-sensitive agricultural production and consumption system, we first need to understand i) how farmers manage climate risks? ii) What technical options enhance farmers’ food and nutrition security? This paper tries to present some current evidence regarding those links in the literature, provide some empirical evidence on small-scale farmers in one of the drought-prone areas in southern Zambia, and envision the future direction of research

Spatial water allocation under conjunctive use

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1995.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 174-180).Microfiche.xvii, 180 leaves, bound ill. 29 cmThis dissertation studies the optimal allocation for conjunctive use of surface and groundwater. The optimal model defines economic principles which determine the spatial allocation of surface and groundwater, the level of conveyance expenditure, the level of on-farm investment in water conservation, and shadow prices of surface and groundwater. The static spatial model identifies the economic principles which govern water allocation for conjunctive use of surface and groundwater. Two models, seepage in the canal and seepage in the canal and on the field are considered. The optimal water allocation is examined with fixed on-farm investment in water conservation and with different canal loss rates. The static base model is extended to incorporate endogenous on-farm investment in water conservation and to consider the effect of the seepage rate on choice of technology, conveyance expenditure, water allocation and land rents. Analytical results are obtained for endogenous crop choice when land quality is homogeneous and shadow price of water is spatially increasing. The study compares the effects of heterogeneous land quality, changes in output price, pumping cost, uniform price for groundwater, and uniform prices for water such as the marginal cost of water generation at the source. The spatial dynamic model of conjunctive water use defines conditions which govern the intertemporal and spatial optimal allocation of water. Five important results are as follows: (i) When seepage is small, the conjunctive use model does not make a significant difference, and the surface water model is a good approximation of the conjunctive use model. (ii) Additional seepage from the field generates a positive externality to water consumers and the resulting optimal shadow price of water is less than the shadow price of the utility. (iii) An output price increase, heterogeneous land quality, and a fixed price for water generate huge aggregate land rents. (iv) Spatial inequity of land rents is worsened by heterogeneous land quality. (v) Temporal allocation of water resources is governed by the Hotelling rule variant similar to the optimal allocation rule for exhaustible resources