Gamblers' Rationality in Parimutuel Soccer Betting

A model for strategic behaviour in parimutuel gambles with unequal winning-probabilities is developed and applied to gambles based on soccer results. Assuming that the bookmakers' quotas reflect the true probability of each possible result of a soccer game, we are able to derive a formula for the expected payoff of a betting strategy (Tipp). Using recent (1996-99) data from the Austrian games Toto and Torwette we are able to calculate the optimal strategies for 90 Toto and Torwette rounds. It turns out that given the relatively high probability of a rollover, it is optimal to overbet favourite outcomes (as compared to the probability of their occurrence). Comparing optimal with actual gamblers' behaviour we find that overbetting is even more pronounced than predicted by the model. This means that gamblers bet too frequently on relatively probable results whereas less probable results are too infrequently chosen relatively to the optimal strategy.Decision making under risk and uncertainty, Parimutuel betting, Sports, Gambling

A smartphone-based health care chatbot to promote self-management of chronic pain (SELMA) : pilot randomized controlled trial

Background: Ongoing pain is one of the most common diseases and has major physical, psychological, social, and economic impacts. A mobile health intervention utilizing a fully automated text-based health care chatbot (TBHC) may offer an innovative way not only to deliver coping strategies and psychoeducation for pain management but also to build a working alliance between a participant and the TBHC. Objective: The objectives of this study are twofold: (1) to describe the design and implementation to promote the chatbot painSELfMAnagement (SELMA), a 2-month smartphone-based cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) TBHC intervention for pain self-management in patients with ongoing or cyclic pain, and (2) to present findings from a pilot randomized controlled trial, in which effectiveness, influence of intention to change behavior, pain duration, working alliance, acceptance, and adherence were evaluated. Methods: Participants were recruited online and in collaboration with pain experts, and were randomized to interact with SELMA for 8 weeks either every day or every other day concerning CBT-based pain management (n=59), or weekly concerning content not related to pain management (n=43). Pain-related impairment (primary outcome), general well-being, pain intensity, and the bond scale of working alliance were measured at baseline and postintervention. Intention to change behavior and pain duration were measured at baseline only, and acceptance postintervention was assessed via self-reporting instruments. Adherence was assessed via usage data. Results: From May 2018 to August 2018, 311 adults downloaded the SELMA app, 102 of whom consented to participate and met the inclusion criteria. The average age of the women (88/102, 86.4%) and men (14/102, 13.6%) participating was 43.7 (SD 12.7) years. Baseline group comparison did not differ with respect to any demographic or clinical variable. The intervention group reported no significant change in pain-related impairment (P=.68) compared to the control group postintervention. The intention to change behavior was positively related to pain-related impairment (P=.01) and pain intensity (P=.01). Working alliance with the TBHC SELMA was comparable to that obtained in guided internet therapies with human coaches. Participants enjoyed using the app, perceiving it as useful and easy to use. Participants of the intervention group replied with an average answer ratio of 0.71 (SD 0.20) to 200 (SD 58.45) conversations initiated by SELMA. Participants’ comments revealed an appreciation of the empathic and responsible interaction with the TBHC SELMA. A main criticism was that there was no option to enter free text for the patients’ own comments. Conclusions: SELMA is feasible, as revealed mainly by positive feedback and valuable suggestions for future revisions. For example, the participants’ intention to change behavior or a more homogenous sample (eg, with a specific type of chronic pain) should be considered in further tailoring of SELMA

Therapeutic concentrations of cyclosporine A, but not FK506, increase P-glycoprotein expression in endothelial and renal tubule cells

Therapeutic concentrations of cyclosporine A, but not FK506, increase P-glycoprotein expression in endothelial and renal tubule cells.BackgroundThe immunosuppressive drugs cyclosporine A (CsA) and tacrolimus (FK506) are extruded from cells by the multidrug resistance P-glycoprotein (P-gp), an efflux pump for drugs and xenobiotics, which may limit their therapeutic effectiveness and/or incidence of toxic side effects. In the present study, we investigated the effect of therapeutic concentrations of CsA and FK506 on the expression of P-gp in cultured endothelial and proximal tubule cells.MethodsP-gp expression in human arterial endothelial (HAEC) and rat proximal tubule cells (RPTC) was determined by immunoblotting and immunocytochemistry, and correlated with P-gp-mediated transport by measuring the intracellular accumulation of the fluorescent probe calcein.ResultsFollowing incubation of HAEC with therapeutic concentrations of 0.1 to 1.6 μm CsA up to seven days, P-gp expression increased in a time- and concentration-dependent manner, maximally to 291 ± 42% of controls with 0.8 μm CsA for seven days. Similar effects of CsA were observed in RPTC. In contrast, therapeutic concentrations of FK506 (0.01 to 0.2 μm up to 7days) did not change P-gp expression in either cell type, though at higher, supratherapeutic concentrations of FK506 (0.6 to 1.2 μm) P-gp expression was also increased. Immunocytochemistry revealed increased P-gp expression in the plasma membrane of HAEC and RPTC treated with 0.8 μm CsA, which was reflected by a decrease of P-gp-mediated accumulation of calcein in both cell types.ConclusionsThe data suggest that the induction of P-gp expression in HAEC and RPTC at concentrations of CsA or FK506 above 0.5 μm is part of the protective answer of cells to toxic concentrations of the drugs and could therefore interfere with the therapeutic effectiveness of CsA in vivo

A prescriptive approach to qualify and quantify customer value for value-based requirements engineering

Recently, customer-based product development is becoming a popular paradigm. Customer expectations and needs can be identified and transformed into requirements for product design with the help of various methods and tools. However, in many cases, these models fail to focus on the perceived value that is crucial when customers make the decision of purchasing a product. In this paper, a prescriptive approach to support value-based requirements engineering (RE) is proposed, describing the foundations, procedures and initial applications in the context of RE for commercial aircraft. An integrated set of techniques, such as means-ends analysis, part-whole analysis and multi-attribute utility theory is introduced in order to understand customer values in depth and width. Technically, this enables identifying the implicit value, structuring logically collected statements of customer expectations and performing value modelling and simulation. Additionally, it helps to put in place a system to measure customer satisfaction that is derived from the proposed approach. The approach offers significant potential to develop effective value creation strategies for the development of new product

Intravascular leiomyosarcoma of the brachiocephalic region – report of an unusual tumour localisation: case report and review of the literature

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Intravascular leiomyosarcoma is a rare tumour entity originating from venous vessel structures and most frequently affecting the inferior vena cava.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>A 69-year old patient presented with a biopsy proven leiomyosarcoma of the right supraclavicular region. Tumour resection and histological assessment verified the intravascular tumour origin arising from the internal jugular vein and extending into the surrounding soft tissue.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In the presence of a biopsy proven diagnosis of leiomyosarcoma the rare condition of an intravascular tumour origin has to be considered even without signs of venous stases. This may result in an altered surgical strategy. Microthrombembolism and pulmonary metastases may complicate the course of the disease.</p

Heterogeneous in vitro effects of doxorubicin on gene expression in primary human liposarcoma cultures

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Doxorubicin is considered one of the most potent established chemotherapeutics in the treatment of liposarcoma; however, the response rates usually below 30%, are still disappointing. This study was performed to identify gene expression changes in liposarcoma after doxorubicin treatment.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Cells of 19 primary human liposarcoma were harvested intraoperatively and brought into cell culture. Cells were incubated with doxorubicin for 24 h, RNA was isolated and differential gene expression was analysed by the microarray technique.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A variety of genes involved in apoptosis were up and down regulated in different samples revealing a heterogeneous expression pattern of the 19 primary tumor cell cultures in response to doxorubicin treatment. However, more than 50% of the samples showed up-regulation of pro-apoptotic genes such as <it>TRAIL Receptor2</it>, <it>CDKN1A</it>, <it>GADD45A</it>, <it>FAS</it>, <it>CD40</it>, <it>PAWR</it>, <it>NFKBIA</it>, <it>IER3</it>, <it>PSEN1</it>, <it>RIPK2</it>, and <it>CD44</it>. The anti-apoptotic genes <it>TNFAIP3</it>, <it>PEA15</it>, <it>Bcl2A1</it>, <it>NGFB</it>, and <it>BIRC3 </it>were also up-regulated. The pro-apoptotic <it>CD14</it>, <it>TIA1</it>, and <it>ITGB2 </it>were down-regulated in more than 50% of the tumor cultures after treatment with doxorubicin, as was the antiapoptotic <it>YWHAH</it>.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Despite a correlation of the number of differentially regulated genes to the tumor grading and to a lesser extent histological subtype, the expression patterns varied strongly; however, especially among high grade tumors the responses of selected apoptosis genes were similar. The predescribed low clinical response rates of low grade liposarcoma to doxorubicin correspond to our results with only little changes on gene expression level and also divergent findings concerning the up- and down-regulation of single genes in the different sarcoma samples.</p

Hsa-miR-375 is a predictor of local control in early stage breast cancer

Background: A long-term analysis by the Early Breast Cancer Trialist Group (EBCTG) revealed a strong correlation between local control and cancer-specific mortality. MicroRNAs (miRs), short (20-25 nucleotides) non-coding RNAs, have been described as prognosticators and predictors for breast cancer in recent years. The aim of the current study was to identify miRs that can predict local control after breast conserving therapy (BCT) in early stage breast cancer. Results: Clinical data of 46 early stage breast cancer patients with local relapse after BCT were selected from the institutional database. These patients were matched to 101 control patients showing identical clinical features but without local relapse. The study was conducted in two steps. (1) In the pilot study, 32 patients (16 relapses versus 16 controls) were screened for the most de-regulated microRNAs (= candidate microRNAs) in a panel of 1250 miRs by microarray technology. Eight miRs were found to be significantly de-regulated. (2) In the validation study, the candidate microRNAs were analyzed in an independent cohort of 115 patients (30 relapses versus 85 controls) with reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR). From these eight candidates, hsa-miR-375 could be validated. Its median fold change was 2.28 (Mann-Whitney U test, corrected p value = 0.008). In the log-rank analysis, high expression levels of hsa-miR-375 correlated with a significantly higher risk of local relapse (p = 0.003). In a multivariate analysis (forward stepwise regression) including established predictors and prognosticators, hsa-miR-375 was the only variable that was able to distinguish the statistical significance between relapse and control groups (raw p value = 0.000195 HR = 0.76, 95 % CI 0.66-0.88;corrected p value = 0.005). Conclusions: Hsa-miR-375 predicts local control in patient with early stage breast cancer, especially in estrogen receptor alpha (ER-alpha)-positive patients. It can therefore serve as an additional molecular marker for treatment choice independently from known predictors and prognosticators. Validation in larger prospective studies is warranted