Generalized Permutohedra from Probabilistic Graphical Models

A graphical model encodes conditional independence relations via the Markov properties. For an undirected graph these conditional independence relations can be represented by a simple polytope known as the graph associahedron, which can be constructed as a Minkowski sum of standard simplices. There is an analogous polytope for conditional independence relations coming from a regular Gaussian model, and it can be defined using multiinformation or relative entropy. For directed acyclic graphical models and also for mixed graphical models containing undirected, directed and bidirected edges, we give a construction of this polytope, up to equivalence of normal fans, as a Minkowski sum of matroid polytopes. Finally, we apply this geometric insight to construct a new ordering-based search algorithm for causal inference via directed acyclic graphical models.Comment: Appendix B is expanded. Final version to appear in SIAM J. Discrete Mat

Differentially Private Model Selection with Penalized and Constrained Likelihood

In statistical disclosure control, the goal of data analysis is twofold: The released information must provide accurate and useful statistics about the underlying population of interest, while minimizing the potential for an individual record to be identified. In recent years, the notion of differential privacy has received much attention in theoretical computer science, machine learning, and statistics. It provides a rigorous and strong notion of protection for individuals' sensitive information. A fundamental question is how to incorporate differential privacy into traditional statistical inference procedures. In this paper we study model selection in multivariate linear regression under the constraint of differential privacy. We show that model selection procedures based on penalized least squares or likelihood can be made differentially private by a combination of regularization and randomization, and propose two algorithms to do so. We show that our private procedures are consistent under essentially the same conditions as the corresponding non-private procedures. We also find that under differential privacy, the procedure becomes more sensitive to the tuning parameters. We illustrate and evaluate our method using simulation studies and two real data examples

Pionic Deuterium

The strong interaction shift and broadening in pionic deuterium have been remeasured with high statistics by means of the (3p-1s) X-ray transition using the cyclotron trap and a high-resolution crystal spectrometer. Preliminary results are (-2325+/-31) meV (repulsive) for the shift and (1171+23/-49} meV for the width, which yields precise values for the pion-deuteron scattering length and the threshold parameter for pion production.Comment: Conf. Proc. Few Body 19 (FB19), August 31 - September 5, 2009, Bonn, Germany 9 pages, 13 figure

Likelihood Geometry

We study the critical points of monomial functions over an algebraic subset of the probability simplex. The number of critical points on the Zariski closure is a topological invariant of that embedded projective variety, known as its maximum likelihood degree. We present an introduction to this theory and its statistical motivations. Many favorite objects from combinatorial algebraic geometry are featured: toric varieties, A-discriminants, hyperplane arrangements, Grassmannians, and determinantal varieties. Several new results are included, especially on the likelihood correspondence and its bidegree. These notes were written for the second author's lectures at the CIME-CIRM summer course on Combinatorial Algebraic Geometry at Levico Terme in June 2013.Comment: 45 pages; minor changes and addition

On the driven Frenkel-Kontorova model: I. Uniform sliding states and dynamical domains of different particle densities

The dynamical behavior of a harmonic chain in a spatially periodic potential (Frenkel-Kontorova model, discrete sine-Gordon equation) under the influence of an external force and a velocity proportional damping is investigated. We do this at zero temperature for long chains in a regime where inertia and damping as well as the nearest-neighbor interaction and the potential are of the same order. There are two types of regular sliding states: Uniform sliding states, which are periodic solutions where all particles perform the same motion shifted in time, and nonuniform sliding states, which are quasi-periodic solutions where the system forms patterns of domains of different uniform sliding states. We discuss the properties of this kind of pattern formation and derive equations of motion for the slowly varying average particle density and velocity. To observe these dynamical domains we suggest experiments with a discrete ring of at least fifty Josephson junctions.Comment: Written in RevTeX, 9 figures in PostScrip

Making connections: technological interventions to support students in using, and tutors in creating, assessment feedback

This paper explores the potential of technology to enhance the assessment and feedback process for both staff and students. The ‘Making Connections’ project aimed to better understand the connections that students make between the feedback that they receive and future assignments, and explored whether technology can help them in this activity. The project interviewed 10 tutors and 20 students, using a semi-structured approach. Data were analysed using a thematic approach, and the findings have identified a number of areas in which improvements could be made to the assessment and feedback process through the use of technology. The findings of the study cover each stage of the assessment process from the perspective of both staff and students. The findings are discussed in the context of current literature, and special attention is given to projects from the UK higher education sector intended to address the same issues. Keywords: feed-forward; assessment; practices; technology; technology-enhanced learnin

Finding footy : female fan socialization and Australian rules football

The question of how, irrespective of gender, a person becomes a sports fan has been absent in sociological studies of sports supporters. Distinct from other studies of sport spectatorship that focus on the practices of already existing (and overwhelmingly male) fans, our research is the first to consider how women become supporters, and in doing so, it begins to redress the significant under-representation of women in sports fan research. From interviews with female supporters of the Australian Football League (AFL), this article identifies and critically assesses the modes by which women come to support sport. We propose four categories to explain the different ways women accomplish fandom, focusing on the importance of strong social ties and doxic actions in this process. The events, experiences and social relations that inform women\u27s first encounters with AFL offers a template for the wider consideration of women as social agents in the sporting landscape

Floating oil-covered debris from Deepwater Horizon : identification and application

Author Posting. © IOP Publishing, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of IOP Publishing. Re-use is limited to non-commercial purposes. The definitive version was published in Environmental Research Letters 7 (2012): 015301, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/015301.The discovery of oiled and non-oiled honeycomb material in the Gulf of Mexico surface waters and along coastal beaches shortly after the explosion of Deepwater Horizon sparked debate about its origin and the oil covering it. We show that the unknown pieces of oiled and non-oiled honeycomb material collected in the Gulf of Mexico were pieces of the riser pipe buoyancy module of Deepwater Horizon. Biomarker ratios confirmed that the oil had originated from the Macondo oil well and had undergone significant weathering. Using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's records of the oil spill trajectory at the sea surface, we show that the honeycomb material preceded the front edge of the uncertainty of the oil slick trajectory by several kilometers. We conclude that the observation of debris fields deriving from damaged marine materials may be incorporated into emergency response efforts and forecasting of coastal impacts during future offshore oil spills, and ground truthing predicative models.This research was supported by NSF grant OCE-1043976 to CR

The Cost-Effectiveness of Tuberculosis Preventive Therapy for HIV-Infected Individuals in Southern India: A Trial-Based Analysis

Regimens for isoniazid-based preventive therapy (IPT) for tuberculosis (TB) in HIV-infected individuals have not been widely adopted given concerns regarding efficacy, adherence and drug resistance. Further, the cost-effectiveness of IPT has not been studied in India.We used an HIV/TB model to project TB incidence, life expectancy, cost and incremental cost-effectiveness of six months of isoniazid plus ethambutol (6EH), thirty-six months of isoniazid (36H) and no IPT for HIV-infected patients in India. Model input parameters included a median CD4 count of 324 cells/mm(3), and a rate ratio of developing TB of 0.35 for 6EH and 0.22 for 36H at three years as compared to no IPT. Results of 6EH and 36H were also compared to six months of isoniazid (6H), three months of isoniazid plus rifampin (3RH) and three months of isoniazid plus rifapentine (3RPTH).Projected TB incidence decreased in the 6EH and 36H regimens by 51% and 62% respectively at three-year follow-up compared to no IPT. Without IPT, projected life expectancy was 136.1 months at a lifetime per person cost of $5,630. 6EH increased life expectancy by 0.8 months at an additional per person cost of$100 (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $1,490/year of life saved (YLS)). 36H further increased life expectancy by 0.2 months with an additional per person cost of$55 (ICER of $3,120/YLS). The projected clinical impact of 6EH was comparable to 6H and 3RH; however when compared to these other options, 6EH was no longer cost-effective given the high cost of ethambutol. Results were sensitive to baseline CD4 count and adherence.Three, six and thirty-six-month regimens of isoniazid-based therapy are effective in preventing TB. Three months of isoniazid plus rifampin and six-months of isoniazid are similarly cost-effective in India, and should be considered part of HIV care