Underwriting Apophenia and Cryptids: Are Cycles Statistical Figments of our Imagination?

This paper re-examines the evidence in favour of the existence of underwriting cycles in property and casualty insurance and their economical significance. Using a meta-analysis of published papers in the area of insurance economics, we show that the evidence supporting the existence of underwriting cycles is misleading. There is, in fact, little evidence in favour of insurance cycles with a linear autoregressive character. This means that any cyclicality in firm profitability in the property and casualty insurance industry is not predictable in a classical econometric framework. It follows that pricing in the property and casualty insurance industry is not incompatible with that of a competitive market

Sex-specific pubertal and metabolic regulation of Kiss1 neurons via Nhlh2.

Hypothalamic Kiss1 neurons control gonadotropin-releasing hormone release through the secretion of kisspeptin. Kiss1 neurons serve as a nodal center that conveys essential regulatory cues for the attainment and maintenance of reproductive function. Despite this critical role, the mechanisms that control kisspeptin synthesis and release remain largely unknown. Using Drop-Seq data from the arcuate nucleus of adult mice and in situ hybridization, we identified Nescient Helix-Loop-Helix 2 (Nhlh2), a transcription factor of the basic helix-loop-helix family, to be enriched in Kiss1 neurons. JASPAR analysis revealed several binding sites for NHLH2 in the Kiss1 and Tac2 (neurokinin B) 5' regulatory regions. In vitro luciferase assays evidenced a robust stimulatory action of NHLH2 on human KISS1 and TAC3 promoters. The recruitment of NHLH2 to the KISS1 and TAC3 promoters was further confirmed through chromatin immunoprecipitation. In vivo conditional ablation of Nhlh2 from Kiss1 neurons using Kiss1Cre:Nhlh2fl/fl mice induced a male-specific delay in puberty onset, in line with a decrease in arcuate Kiss1 expression. Females retained normal reproductive function albeit with irregular estrous cycles. Further analysis of male Kiss1Cre:Nhlh2fl/fl mice revealed higher susceptibility to metabolic challenges in the release of luteinizing hormone and impaired response to leptin. Overall, in Kiss1 neurons, Nhlh2 contributes to the metabolic regulation of kisspeptin and NKB synthesis and release, with implications for the timing of puberty onset and regulation of fertility in male mice

Evidence of Expanded Host Range and Mammalian-Associated Genetic Changes in a Duck H9N2 Influenza Virus Following Adaptation in Quail and Chickens

H9N2 avian influenza viruses continue to circulate worldwide; in Asia, H9N2 viruses have caused disease outbreaks and established lineages in land-based poultry. Some H9N2 strains are considered potentially pandemic because they have infected humans causing mild respiratory disease. In addition, some of these H9N2 strains replicate efficiently in mice without prior adaptation suggesting that H9N2 strains are expanding their host range. In order to understand the molecular basis of the interspecies transmission of H9N2 viruses, we adapted in the laboratory a wildtype duck H9N2 virus, influenza A/duck/Hong Kong/702/79 (WT702) virus, in quail and chickens through serial lung passages. We carried out comparative analysis of the replication and transmission in quail and chickens of WT702 and the viruses obtained after 23 serial passages in quail (QA23) followed by 10 serial passages in chickens (QA23CkA10). Although the WT702 virus can replicate and transmit in quail, it replicates poorly and does not transmit in chickens. In contrast, the QA23CkA10 virus was very efficient at replicating and transmitting in quail and chickens. Nucleotide sequence analysis of the QA23 and QA23CkA10 viruses compared to the WT702 virus indicated several nucleotide substitutions resulting in amino acid changes within the surface and internal proteins. In addition, a 21-amino acid deletion was found in the stalk of the NA protein of the QA23 virus and was maintained without further modification in the QA23CkA10 adapted virus. More importantly, both the QA23 and the QA23CkA10 viruses, unlike the WT702 virus, were able to readily infect mice, produce a large-plaque phenotype, showed faster replication kinetics in tissue culture, and resulted in the quick selection of the K627 amino acid mammalian-associated signature in PB2. These results are in agreement with the notion that adaptation of H9 viruses to land-based birds can lead to strains with expanded host range

Calcium-Dependent Increases in Protein Kinase-A Activity in Mouse Retinal Ganglion Cells Are Mediated by Multiple Adenylate Cyclases

Neurons undergo long term, activity dependent changes that are mediated by activation of second messenger cascades. In particular, calcium-dependent activation of the cyclic-AMP/Protein kinase A signaling cascade has been implicated in several developmental processes including cell survival, axonal outgrowth, and axonal refinement. The biochemical link between calcium influx and the activation of the cAMP/PKA pathway is primarily mediated through adenylate cyclases. Here, dual imaging of intracellular calcium concentration and PKA activity was used to assay the role of different classes of calcium-dependent adenylate cyclases (ACs) in the activation of the cAMP/PKA pathway in retinal ganglion cells (RGCs). Surprisingly, depolarization-induced calcium-dependent PKA transients persist in barrelless mice lacking AC1, the predominant calcium-dependent adenylate cyclase in RGCs, as well as in double knockout mice lacking both AC1 and AC8. Furthermore, in a subset of RGCs, depolarization-induced PKA transients persist during the inhibition of all transmembrane adenylate cyclases. These results are consistent with the existence of a soluble adenylate cyclase that plays a role in calcium-dependent activation of the cAMP/PKA cascade in neurons

Replication and Transmission of H9N2 Influenza Viruses in Ferrets: Evaluation of Pandemic Potential

H9N2 avian influenza A viruses are endemic in poultry of many Eurasian countries and have caused repeated human infections in Asia since 1998. To evaluate the potential threat of H9N2 viruses to humans, we investigated the replication and transmission efficiency of H9N2 viruses in the ferret model. Five wild-type (WT) H9N2 viruses, isolated from different avian species from 1988 through 2003, were tested in vivo and found to replicate in ferrets. However these viruses achieved mild peak viral titers in nasal washes when compared to those observed with a human H3N2 virus. Two of these H9N2 viruses transmitted to direct contact ferrets, however no aerosol transmission was detected in the virus displaying the most efficient direct contact transmission. A leucine (Leu) residue at amino acid position 226 in the hemagglutinin (HA) receptor-binding site (RBS), responsible for human virus-like receptor specificity, was found to be important for the transmission of the H9N2 viruses in ferrets. In addition, an H9N2 avian-human reassortant virus, which contains the surface glycoprotein genes from an H9N2 virus and the six internal genes of a human H3N2 virus, showed enhanced replication and efficient transmission to direct contacts. Although no aerosol transmission was observed, the virus replicated in multiple respiratory tissues and induced clinical signs similar to those observed with the parental human H3N2 virus. Our results suggest that the establishment and prevalence of H9N2 viruses in poultry pose a significant threat for humans

Novel Genotypes of H9N2 Influenza A Viruses Isolated from Poultry in Pakistan Containing NS Genes Similar to Highly Pathogenic H7N3 and H5N1 Viruses

The impact of avian influenza caused by H9N2 viruses in Pakistan is now significantly more severe than in previous years. Since all gene segments contribute towards the virulence of avian influenza virus, it was imperative to investigate the molecular features and genetic relationships of H9N2 viruses prevalent in this region. Analysis of the gene sequences of all eight RNA segments from 12 viruses isolated between 2005 and 2008 was undertaken. The hemagglutinin (HA) sequences of all isolates were closely related to H9N2 viruses isolated from Iran between 2004 and 2007 and contained leucine instead of glutamine at position 226 in the receptor binding pocket, a recognised marker for the recognition of sialic acids linked α2–6 to galactose. The neuraminidase (NA) of two isolates contained a unique five residue deletion in the stalk (from residues 80 to 84), a possible indication of greater adaptation of these viruses to the chicken host. The HA, NA, nucleoprotein (NP), and matrix (M) genes showed close identity with H9N2 viruses isolated during 1999 in Pakistan and clustered in the A/Quail/Hong Kong/G1/97 virus lineage. In contrast, the polymerase genes clustered with H9N2 viruses from India, Iran and Dubai. The NS gene segment showed greater genetic diversity and shared a high level of similarity with NS genes from either H5 or H7 subtypes rather than with established H9N2 Eurasian lineages. These results indicate that during recent years the H9N2 viruses have undergone extensive genetic reassortment which has led to the generation of H9N2 viruses of novel genotypes in the Indian sub-continent. The novel genotypes of H9N2 viruses may play a role in the increased problems observed by H9N2 to poultry and reinforce the continued need to monitor H9N2 infections for their zoonotic potential

Structural and Mutational Analysis of Functional Differentiation between Synaptotagmins-1 and -7

Synaptotagmins are known to mediate diverse forms of Ca2+-triggered exocytosis through their C2 domains, but the principles underlying functional differentiation among them are unclear. Synaptotagmin-1 functions as a Ca2+ sensor in neurotransmitter release at central nervous system synapses, but synaptotagmin-7 does not, and yet both isoforms act as Ca2+ sensors in chromaffin cells. To shed light into this apparent paradox, we have performed rescue experiments in neurons from synaptotagmin-1 knockout mice using a chimera that contains the synaptotagmin-1 sequence with its C2B domain replaced by the synaptotagmin-7 C2B domain (Syt1/7). Rescue was not achieved either with the WT Syt1/7 chimera or with nine mutants where residues that are distinct in synaptotagmin-7 were restored to those present in synaptotagmin-1. To investigate whether these results arise because of unique conformational features of the synaptotagmin-7 C2B domain, we determined its crystal structure at 1.44 Å resolution. The synaptotagmin-7 C2B domain structure is very similar to that of the synaptotagmin-1 C2B domain and contains three Ca2+-binding sites. Two of the Ca2+-binding sites of the synaptotagmin-7 C2B domain are also present in the synaptotagmin-1 C2B domain and have analogous ligands to those determined for the latter by NMR spectroscopy, suggesting that a discrepancy observed in a crystal structure of the synaptotagmin-1 C2B domain arose from crystal contacts. Overall, our results suggest that functional differentiation in synaptotagmins arises in part from subtle sequence changes that yield dramatic functional differences