Increasing frequencies and changing characteristics of heavy precipitation events threatening infrastructure in Europe under climate change

The effect of climate change on potentially infrastructure-damaging heavy precipitation events in Europe is investigated in an ensemble of regional climate simulations conducted at a horizontal resolution of 12 km. Based on legislation and stakeholder interviews the 10-year return period is used as a threshold for the detection of relevant events. A novel technique for the identification of heavy precipitation events is introduced. It records not only event frequency but also event size, duration and severity (a measure taking duration, size and rain amount into account) as these parameters determine the potential consequences of the event. Over most of Europe the frequency of relevant heavy precipitation events is predicted to increase with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The number of daily and multi-day events increases at a lower rate than the number of sub-daily events. The event size is predicted to increase in the future over many European regions, especially for sub-daily events. Moreover, the most severe events were detected in the projection period. The predicted changes in frequency, size and intensity of events may increase the risk for infrastructure damages. The climate change simulations do not show changes in event duration

Towards a better representation of the solar cycle in general circulation models

We introduce the improved Freie Universität Berlin (FUB) high-resolution radiation scheme FUBRad and compare it to the 4-band standard ECHAM5 SW radiation scheme of Fouquart and Bonnel (FB). Both schemes are validated against the detailed radiative transfer model libRadtran. FUBRad produces realistic heating rate variations during the solar cycle. The SW heating rate response with the FB scheme is about 20 times smaller than with FUBRad and cannot produce the observed temperature signal. A reduction of the spectral resolution to 6 bands for solar irradiance and ozone absorption cross sections leads to a degradation (reduction) of the solar SW heating rate signal by about 20%. The simulated temperature response agrees qualitatively well with observations in the summer upper stratosphere and mesosphere where irradiance variations dominate the signal. Comparison of the total short-wave heating rates under solar minimum conditions shows good agreement between FUBRad, FB and libRadtran up to the middle mesosphere (60–70 km) indicating that both parameterizations are well suited for climate integrations that do not take solar variability into account. The FUBRad scheme has been implemented as a sub-submodel of the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy)

The Entropy of Square-Free Words

Finite alphabets of at least three letters permit the construction of square-free words of infinite length. We show that the entropy density is strictly positive and derive reasonable lower and upper bounds. Finally, we present an approximate formula which is asymptotically exact with rapid convergence in the number of letters.Comment: 18 page

Cyclones causing wind storms in the Mediterranean: characteristics, trends and links to large-scale patterns

A climatology of cyclones with a focus on their relation to wind storm tracks in the Mediterranean region (MR) is presented. Trends in the frequency of cyclones and wind storms, as well as variations associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic/West Russian (EAWR) and the Scandinavian variability pattern (SCAND) are discussed. The study is based on the ERA40 reanalysis dataset. Wind storm tracks are identified by tracking clusters of adjacent grid boxes characterised by extremely high local wind speeds. The wind track is assigned to a cyclone track independently identified with an objective scheme. Areas with high wind activity – quantified by extreme wind tracks – are typically located south of the Golf of Genoa, south of Cyprus, southeast of Sicily and west of the Iberian Peninsula. About 69% of the wind storms are caused by cyclones located in the Mediterranean region, while the remaining 31% can be attributed to North Atlantic or Northern European cyclones. The North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic/West Russian pattern and the Scandinavian pattern all influence the amount and spatial distribution of wind inducing cyclones and wind events in the MR. The strongest signals exist for the NAO and the EAWR pattern, which are both associated with an increase in the number of organised strong wind events in the eastern MR during their positive phase. On the other hand, the storm numbers decrease over the western MR for the positive phase of the NAO and over the central MR during the positive phase of the EAWR pattern. The positive phase of the Scandinavian pattern is associated with a decrease in the number of winter wind storms over most of the MR. A third of the trends in the number of wind storms and wind producing cyclones during the winter season of the ERA40 period may be attributed to the variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation

UVES observations of QSO 0000-2620: oxygen and zinc abundances in the Damped Ly-alpha galaxy at z_abs=3.3901

Observations of the QSO 0000-2620 with UVES spectrograph at the 8.2m ESO KUEYEN telescope are used for abundance analysis of the damped Ly-alpha system at z_{abs}=3.3901. Several Oxygen lines are identified in the Ly_alpha forest and a measure for the oxygen abundance is obtained at [O/H]=-1.85 +/- 0.1 by means of the unsaturated OI 925 A and OI 950 A lines. This represents the most accurate O measurement in a damped Ly_alpha galaxy so far. We have also detected ZnII 2026 A and CrII 2056, 2062 A redshifted at about 8900 A and found abundances [Zn/H] = -2.07 +/- 0.1 and [Cr/H]=-1.99 +/- 0.1. Furthermore, previous measurements of Fe, Si, Ni and N have been refined yielding [Fe/H]=-2.04 +/- 0.1, [Si/H]=-1.90 +/- 0.1, [Ni/H]=-2.27 +/- 0.1, and [N/H]=-2.68 +/- 0.1. The abundance of the non-refractory element zinc is the lowest among the damped Ly-alpha systems showing that the associated intervening galaxy is indeed in the early stages of its chemical evolution. The fact that the Zn abundance is identical to that of the refractory elements Fe and Cr suggests that dust grains have not formed yet. In this Damped Ly-alpha system the observed [O,S,Si/Zn,Fe,Cr] ratios, in whatever combination are taken, are close to solar (i.e 0.1-0.2 dex) and do not show the [alpha-element/Fe] enhancement observed in Milky Way stars of comparable metallicity. The observed behavior supports a galaxy evolution model characterized by either episodic or low star formation rate rather than a Milky-Way-type evolutionary model.Comment: Accepted by Ap

Scaling of the specific heat in superfluid films

We study the specific heat of the $x-y$ model on lattices $L \times L \times H$ with $L \gg H$ (i.e. on lattices representing a film geometry) using the Cluster Monte--Carlo method. In the $H$--direction we apply Dirichlet boundary conditions so that the order parameter in the top and bottom layers is zero. We find that our results for the specific heat of various thickness size $H$ collapse on the same universal scaling function. The extracted scaling function of the specific heat is in good agreement with the experimentally determined universal scaling function using no free parameters.Comment: 4 pages, uuencoded compressed PostScrip

Chemical Inhomogeneities in the Milky Way Stellar Halo

We have compiled a sample of 699 stars from the recent literature with detailed chemical abundance information (spanning -4.2 < [Fe/H] < +0.3), and we compute their space velocities and Galactic orbital parameters. We identify members of the inner and outer stellar halo populations in our sample based only on their kinematic properties and then compare the abundance ratios of these populations as a function of [Fe/H]. In the metallicity range where the two populations overlap (-2.5 < [Fe/H] < -1.5), the mean [Mg/Fe] of the outer halo is lower than the inner halo by ~0.1 dex. For [Ni/Fe] and [Ba/Fe], the star-to-star abundance scatter of the inner halo is consistently smaller than in the outer halo. The [Na/Fe], [Y/Fe], [Ca/Fe], and [Ti/Fe] ratios of both populations show similar means and levels of scatter. Our inner halo population is chemically homogeneous, suggesting that a significant fraction of the Milky Way stellar halo originated from a well-mixed ISM. In contrast, our outer halo population is chemically diverse, suggesting that another significant fraction of the Milky Way stellar halo formed in remote regions where chemical enrichment was dominated by local supernova events. We find no abundance trends with maximum radial distance from the Galactic center or maximum vertical distance from the Galactic disk. We also find no common kinematic signature for groups of metal-poor stars with peculiar abundance patters, such as the alpha-poor stars or stars showing unique neutron-capture enrichment patterns. Several stars and dSph systems with unique abundance patterns spend the majority of their time in the distant regions of the Milky Way stellar halo, suggesting that the true outer halo of the Galaxy may have little resemblance to the local stellar halo.Comment: Accepted for publication in AJ. Full tables available upon reques

Keck-Nirspec Infrared OH Lines: Oxygen Abundances in Metal-Poor Stars Down to [Fe/H] = -2.9

Infrared OH lines at 1.5 - 1.7 um in the H band were obtained with the NIRSPEC high-resolution spectrograph at the 10m Keck Telescope for a sample of seven metal-poor stars. Detailed analyses have been carried out, based on optical high-resolution data obtained with the FEROS spectrograph at ESO. Stellar parameters were derived by adopting infrared flux method effective temperatures, trigonometric and/or evolutionary gravities and metallicities from FeII lines. We obtain that the sample stars with metallicities [Fe/H] < -2.2 show a mean oxygen abundance [O/Fe] ~ 0.54, for a solar oxygen abundance of epsilon(O) = 8.87, or [O/Fe] ~ 0.64 if epsilon(O) = 8.77 is assumed.Comment: To be published in ApJ 575 (August 10

Diffractive point sets with entropy

After a brief historical survey, the paper introduces the notion of entropic model sets (cut and project sets), and, more generally, the notion of diffractive point sets with entropy. Such sets may be thought of as generalizations of lattice gases. We show that taking the site occupation of a model set stochastically results, with probabilistic certainty, in well-defined diffractive properties augmented by a constant diffuse background. We discuss both the case of independent, but identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables and that of independent, but different (i.e., site dependent) random variables. Several examples are shown.Comment: 25 pages; dedicated to Hans-Ude Nissen on the occasion of his 65th birthday; final version, some minor addition

Abundances In Very Metal Poor Dwarf Stars

We discuss the detailed composition of 28 extremely metal-poor dwarfs, 22 of which are from the Hamburg/ESO Survey, based on Keck Echelle spectra. Our sample has a median [Fe/H] of -2.7 dex, extends to -3.5 dex, and is somewhat less metal-poor than was expected from [Fe/H](HK,HES) determined from low resolution spectra. Our analysis supports the existence of a sharp decline in the distribution of halo stars with metallicity below [Fe/H] = -3.0 dex. So far no additional turnoff stars with [Fe/H]}<-3.5 have been identified in our follow up efforts. For the best observed elements between Mg and Ni, we find that the abundance ratios appear to have reached a plateau, i.e. [X/Fe] is approximately constant as a function of [Fe/H], except for Cr, Mn and Co, which show trends of abundance ratios varying with [Fe/H]. These abundance ratios at low metallicity correspond approximately to the yield expected from Type II SN with a narrow range in mass and explosion parameters; high mass Type II SN progenitors are required. The dispersion of [X/Fe] about this plateau level is surprisingly small, and is still dominated by measurement errors rather than intrinsic scatter. The dispersion in neutron-capture elements, and the abundance trends for Cr, Mn and Co are consistent with previous studies of evolved EMP stars. Two dwarfs in the sample are carbon stars, while two others have significant C enhancements, all with C12/C13 ~ 7 and with C/N between 10 and 150. Three of these C-rich stars have large enhancements of the heavy neutron capture elements, including lead, which implies a strong s-process contribution, presumably from binary mass transfer; the fourth shows no excess of Sr or Ba.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Ap