How Similar Are European Business Cycles?

In this paper, we focus on how European economic integration has affected the synchronization and the magnitude of business cycles among participating countries. We measure, based on bandpass filtered data, the characteristics of European business cycles analyzing to what extent they have become more similar over time. We also consider the role of other factors such as differences in fiscal and monetary policy, border effects, and trade intensity. Our main finding is that European business cycles are highly synchronized, although we also find that synchronization was higher during periods with highly flexible exchange rates. In addition we find a positive tradeoff between timing and magnitude such that more synchronization coincides with larger relative magnitude. These results raise concern about the consequences of a common monetary policy within EMU.business cycles; symmetry and co{movement of cycles; magnitude of cycles; economic integration; monetary union

Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints: The No Interest Parity Case

This paper revisits the currency crises model of Aghion, Bacchetta and Banerjee (2000, 2001, 2004), who show that if there exist nominal price rigidities and private sector credit constraints, and the credit multiplier depends on real interest rates, then the optimal monetary policy response to the threat of a currency crisis is restrictive. We demonstrate that this result is primarily due to the uncovered interest parity assumption. Assuming that the exchange rate is a martingale restores the case for expansionary reaction - even with foreign-currency debt in firms' balance sheets. The effect of lower interest rates on output can help restore the value of the currency due to increased money demand.currency crises; foreign–currency debt; balance sheets; interest parity; monetary policy

Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe: Evidence from the Scandinavian Currency Union

This paper studies business cycle synchronization in the three Scandinavian countries Denmark, Norway and Sweden prior to, during and after the Scandinavian Currency Union 1873-1913. We find that the degree of synchronization tended to increase during the currency union, thus supporting earlier empirical evidence. Estimates of factor models suggest that common Scandinavian shocks are important for these three countries. At the same time we find evidence suggesting that the importance of these shocks does not depend on the monetary regime.european union, eu, denmark, sweden, norway, jonung, bergman, scandinavian currency, union synchronisation of cycles, co-movement of cycles, monetary unions symnetry, symmetry european business cycles

Should the Nordic Countries Join A European Monetary Union? An Empirical Analysis.

This paper examines the implications for the Nordic Countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden) of participating in the finan stage of the European Monetary Union. Economic linkages with Germany are estimated using a time series approach under both the Bretton Woods and the post-Bretton Woods exchange rate regimes. Output responses of the Nordic countries to permanent and transitory disturbances are estimated and compared with two small "core" members, Belgium and the Netherlands. We find that the long-standing EU members (Belgium, Denmark and the Netherlands) are closely integrated with Germany in that German shocks have a direct and large impact on their output developments. These linkages appear much weaker for Finland, Norway and Sweden. Common European disturbances also do not distinguish the Nordic countries from the non-Nordic countries.

Ground-state ammonia and water in absorption towards Sgr B2

Context. Observations of transitions to the ground-state of a molecule are essential to obtain a complete picture of its excitation and chemistry in the interstellar medium, especially in diffuse and/or cold environments. For the important interstellar molecules H₂O and NH₃, these ground-state transitions are heavily absorbed by the terrestrial atmosphere, hence not observable from the ground. Aims: We attempt to understand the chemistry of nitrogen, oxygen, and their important molecular forms, NH₃ and H₂O in the interstellar medium of the Galaxy. Methods: We have used the Odin* submillimetre-wave satellite telescope to observe the ground state transitions of ortho-ammonia and ortho-water, including their ¹⁵N, ¹⁸O, and ¹⁷O isotopologues, towards Sgr B2. The extensive simultaneous velocity coverage of the observations, >500 km s^-1, ensures that we can probe the conditions of both the warm, dense gas of the molecular cloud Sgr B2 near the Galactic centre, and the more diffuse gas in the Galactic disk clouds along the line-of-sight. Results: We present ground-state NH₃ absorption in seven distinct velocity features along the line-of-sight towards Sgr B2. We find a nearly linear correlation between the column densities of NH₃ and CS, and a square-root relation to N₂H⁺. The ammonia abundance in these diffuse Galactic disk clouds is estimated to be about 0.5–1 × 10^-8, similar to that observed for diffuse clouds in the outer Galaxy. On the basis of the detection of H_218O absorption in the 3 kpc arm, and the absence of such a feature in the H_217O spectrum, we conclude that the water abundance is around 10-7, compared to ~10-8 for NH3. The Sgr B2 molecular cloud itself is seen in absorption in NH₃, 15NH₃, H₂O, H_218O, and H_217O, with emission superimposed on the absorption in the main isotopologues. The non-LTE excitation of NH3 in the environment of Sgr B2 can be explained without invoking an unusually hot (500 K) molecular layer. A hot layer is similarly not required to explain the line profiles of the 11,0≥ts10,1 transition from H2O and its isotopologues. The relatively weak 15NH3 absorption in the Sgr B2 molecular cloud indicates a high [ 14N/15N] isotopic ratio >600. The abundance ratio of H_218O and H_217O is found to be relatively low, 2.5–3. These results together indicate that the dominant nucleosynthesis process in the Galactic centre is CNO hydrogen burning. Odin is a Swedish-led satellite project funded jointly by the Swedish National Space Board (SNSB), the Canadian Space Agency (CSA), the National Technology Agency of Finland (Tekes), and the centre National d'Études Spatiales (CNES, France). The Swedish Space Corporation (SSC) was the industrial prime contractor and is also responsible for the satellite operation

Comparison of uniaxial and triaxial accelerometry in the assessment of physical activity among adolescents under free-living conditions: the HELENA study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Different types of devices are available and the choice about which to use depends on various factors: cost, physical characteristics, performance, and the validity and intra- and interinstrument reliability. Given the large number of studies that have used uniaxial or triaxial devices, it is of interest to know whether the different devices give similar information about PA levels and patterns. The aim of this study was to compare physical activity (PA) levels and patterns obtained simultaneously by triaxial accelerometry and uniaxial accelerometry in adolescents in free-living conditions.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Sixty-two participants, aged 13-16 years, were recruited in this ancillary study, which is a part of the Healthy Lifestyle in Europe by Nutrition in Adolescence (HELENA). All participants wore a uniaxial accelerometer (ActiGraph GT1M^®, Pensacola, FL) and a triaxial accelerometer (RT3^®, Stayhealthy, Monrovia, CA) simultaneously for 7 days. The patterns were calculated by converting accelerometer data output as a percentage of time spent at sedentary, light, moderate, and vigorous PA per day. Analysis of output data from the two accelerometers were assessed by two different tests: Equivalence Test and Bland & Altman method.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The concordance correlation coefficient between the data from the triaxial accelerometer and uniaxial accelerometer at each intensity level was superior to 0.95. The ANOVA test showed a significant difference for the first three lower intensities while no significant difference was found for vigorous intensity. The difference between data obtained with the triaxial accelerometer and the uniaxial monitor never exceeded 2.1% and decreased as PA level increased. The Bland & Altman method showed good agreement between data obtained between the both accelerometers (<it>p </it>< 0.05).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Uniaxial and triaxial accelerometers do not differ in their measurement of PA in population studies, and either could be used in such studies.</p

New genetic loci implicated in fasting glucose homeostasis and their impact on type 2 diabetes risk.

Levels of circulating glucose are tightly regulated. To identify new loci influencing glycemic traits, we performed meta-analyses of 21 genome-wide association studies informative for fasting glucose, fasting insulin and indices of beta-cell function (HOMA-B) and insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) in up to 46,186 nondiabetic participants. Follow-up of 25 loci in up to 76,558 additional subjects identified 16 loci associated with fasting glucose and HOMA-B and two loci associated with fasting insulin and HOMA-IR. These include nine loci newly associated with fasting glucose (in or near ADCY5, MADD, ADRA2A, CRY2, FADS1, GLIS3, SLC2A2, PROX1 and C2CD4B) and one influencing fasting insulin and HOMA-IR (near IGF1). We also demonstrated association of ADCY5, PROX1, GCK, GCKR and DGKB-TMEM195 with type 2 diabetes. Within these loci, likely biological candidate genes influence signal transduction, cell proliferation, development, glucose-sensing and circadian regulation. Our results demonstrate that genetic studies of glycemic traits can identify type 2 diabetes risk loci, as well as loci containing gene variants that are associated with a modest elevation in glucose levels but are not associated with overt diabetes

Hundreds of variants clustered in genomic loci and biological pathways affect human height

Most common human traits and diseases have a polygenic pattern of inheritance: DNA sequence variants at many genetic loci influence the phenotype. Genome-wide association (GWA) studies have identified more than 600 variants associated with human traits, but these typically explain small fractions of phenotypic variation, raising questions about the use of further studies. Here, using 183,727 individuals, we show that hundreds of genetic variants, in at least 180 loci, influence adult height, a highly heritable and classic polygenic trait. The large number of loci reveals patterns with important implications for genetic studies of common human diseases and traits. First, the 180 loci are not random, but instead are enriched for genes that are connected in biological pathways (P = 0.016) and that underlie skeletal growth defects (P < 0.001). Second, the likely causal gene is often located near the most strongly associated variant: in 13 of 21 loci containing a known skeletal growth gene, that gene was closest to the associated variant. Third, at least 19 loci have multiple independently associated variants, suggesting that allelic heterogeneity is a frequent feature of polygenic traits, that comprehensive explorations of already-discovered loci should discover additional variants and that an appreciable fraction of associated loci may have been identified. Fourth, associated variants are enriched for likely functional effects on genes, being over-represented among variants that alter amino-acid structure of proteins and expression levels of nearby genes. Our data explain approximately 10% of the phenotypic variation in height, and we estimate that unidentified common variants of similar effect sizes would increase this figure to approximately 16% of phenotypic variation (approximately 20% of heritable variation). Although additional approaches are needed to dissect the genetic architecture of polygenic human traits fully, our findings indicate that GWA studies can identify large numbers of loci that implicate biologically relevant genes and pathways.