Don't know, can't know: Embracing deeper uncertainties when analysing risks

This article is available open access through the publisher’s website at the link below. Copyright @ 2011 The Royal Society.Numerous types of uncertainty arise when using formal models in the analysis of risks. Uncertainty is best seen as a relation, allowing a clear separation of the object, source and ‘owner’ of the uncertainty, and we argue that all expressions of uncertainty are constructed from judgements based on possibly inadequate assumptions, and are therefore contingent. We consider a five-level structure for assessing and communicating uncertainties, distinguishing three within-model levels—event, parameter and model uncertainty—and two extra-model levels concerning acknowledged and unknown inadequacies in the modelling process, including possible disagreements about the framing of the problem. We consider the forms of expression of uncertainty within the five levels, providing numerous examples of the way in which inadequacies in understanding are handled, and examining criticisms of the attempts taken by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to separate the likelihood of events from the confidence in the science. Expressing our confidence in the adequacy of the modelling process requires an assessment of the quality of the underlying evidence, and we draw on a scale that is widely used within evidence-based medicine. We conclude that the contingent nature of risk-modelling needs to be explicitly acknowledged in advice given to policy-makers, and that unconditional expressions of uncertainty remain an aspiration

Pylons in the back yard: local planning and perceived risks to health

Health fears arising from the presence of high-voltage power lines in residential areas have received recent attention in spatial planning. A study of stances taken by planning authorities in England and Wales shows their willingness to give expression to the concerns of local communities through precautionary measures, and the difficulties encountered in the face of official statements and industry opposition. These attempts to embody local feeling in patterns of development are illustrative of the increasing prevalence of a sense of risk in contemporary society. The spatial patterns of risk are also revealed, which owe much to the presence and distribution of industrial infrastructure in the landscape and to the associated contested use of land.</p

Epistemic policy networks in the European Union’s CBRN risk mitigation policy

This paper offers insights into an innovative and currently flagship approach of the European Union (EU) to the mitigation of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) risks. Building on its long-time experience in the CBRN field, the EU has incorporated methods familiar to the students of international security governance: it is establishing regional networks of experts and expertise. CBRN Centers of Excellence, as they are officially called, aim to contribute to the security and safety culture in different parts of Africa, the Middle East, South East Asia, and South East Europe, in the broadly construed CBRN area. These regional networks represent a modern form of security cooperation, which can be conceptualized as an epistemic policy networks approach. It offers flexibility to the participating states, which have different incentives to get involved. At the same, however, the paper identifies potential limitations and challenges of epistemic policy networks in this form

The ‘credibility paradox’ in China’s science communication: Views from scientific practitioners

In contrast to increasing debates on China’s rising status as a global scientific power, issues of China’s science communication remain under-explored. Based on 21 in-depth interviews in three cities, this article examines Chinese scientists’ accounts of the entangled web of influence which conditions the process of how scientific knowledge achieves (or fails to achieve) its civic authority. A main finding of this study is a ‘credibility paradox’ as a result of the over-politicisation of science and science communication in China. Respondents report that an absence of visible institutional endorsements renders them more public credibility and better communication outcomes. Thus, instead of exploiting formal channels of science communication, scientists interviewed were more keen to act as ‘informal risk communicators’ in grassroots and private events. Chinese scientists’ perspectives on how to earn public support of their research sheds light on the nature and impact of a ‘civic epistemology’ in an authoritarian state

Secondary schooling and rural youth transitions in Lesotho and Zimbabwe

Based on case studies centred on two rural secondary schools in Lesotho and Zimbabwe, this paper examines the gendered impacts of schooling on young people’s transitions to adulthood. School attendance is shown, first, to disrupt the conventional pathways to adulthood: young people attending school may leave home sooner than they otherwise would, and take responsibility for their day-to-day survival, while marriage and childbearing are often delayed. More significantly, secondary schooling reflects, and contributes to, a growing sense that adulthood itself is not fixed. An alternative version of adulthood is promoted through schools in which formal sector employment is central. Yet while young people are encouraged to opt for, and work towards, this goal, only a minority are able to obtain paid employment. The apparent possibility of determining one’s own lifecourse serves to cast the majority of young people as failures in their transitions to adulthood

Effects of microplastics and drought on soil ecosystem functions and multifunctionality

1. Microplastics in soils have become an important threat for terrestrial systems as they may potentially alter the geochemical/biophysical soil environment and can interact with drought. As microplastics may affect soil water content, this could exacerbate the well-known negative effects of drought on ecosystem functionality. Thus, functions including litter decomposition, soil aggregation or those related with nutrient cycling can be altered. Despite this potential interaction, we know relatively little about how microplastics, under different soil water conditions, affect ecosystem functions and multifunctionality. 2. To address this gap, we performed an experiment using grassland plant communities growing in microcosms. Microplastic fibres (absent, present) and soil water conditions (well-watered, drought) were applied in a fully factorial design. At harvest, we measured soil ecosystem functions related to nutrient cycling (beta-glucosaminidase, beta-D-cellobiosidase, phosphatase, beta-glucosidase enzymes), respiration, nutrient retention, pH, litter decomposition and soil aggregation (water stable aggregates). As terrestrial systems provide these functions simultaneously, we also assessed ecosystem multifunctionality, an index that encompasses the array of ecosystem functions measured here. 3. We found that the interaction between microplastic fibres and drought affected ecosystem functions and multifunctionality. Drought had negatively affected nutrient cycling by decreasing enzymatic activities by up to similar to 39%, while microplastics increased soil aggregation by similar to 18%, soil pH by similar to 4% and nutrient retention by up to similar to 70% by diminishing nutrient leaching. Microplastic fibres also impacted soil enzymes, respiration and ecosystem multifunctionality, but importantly, the direction of these effects depended on soil water status. That is, under well-watered conditions, these functions decreased with microplastic fibres by up to similar to 34% while under drought they had similar values irrespective of the microplastic presence, or tended to increase with microplastics. Litter decomposition had a contrary pattern increasing with microplastics by similar to 6% under well-watered conditions while decreasing to a similar percentage under drought. 4. Synthesis and applications. Single ecosystem functions can be positively or negatively affected by microplastics fibres depending on soil water status. However, our results suggest that microplastic fibres may cause negative effects on ecosystem soil multifunctionality of a similar magnitude as drought. Thus, strategies to counteract this new global change factor are necessary

The role of familial habitus in shaping children's views of their future employment

As the field of Geographies of Children, Youth and Families grows and diversifies as a testament to the active and vigorous interest in this area of research, the collection of papers presented within this Special Issue proves timely in addressing developing research on education and aspiration. At a variety of spatial scales and from different perspectives, the contributors have shown how educational settings are invoked by politicians, educators and practitioners as sites where the aspirations of future citizen-workers can be managed for perceived individual and collective benefit. It is unsurprising that young people remain the focus of policy attention and analyses in relation to ‘raising’ aspirations, given normative understandings of their chronological proximity to transitions to adulthood. What emerges alongside efforts to affect the aspirations of young people through education is a strand of thought which acknowledges the role of the family in the lives of young people. Research has shown distinctions in parental aspirations for their children according to ethnic and socio-economic background (Coleman, 1988; Portes and MacLeod, 1996), and has highlighted how families are viewed by educationalists as key to the academic success of their children (Holloway and Pimlott-Wilson, this issue). Whilst young people and parents remain central to considerations of aspiration (Nairn et al., 2007), the hopes of young children are also crucial when we take into account the implications which may arise when children judge one path of action feasible as a future goal whilst others appear unattainable. In this article, I argue that the voices of children need to be included in research which considers aspiration, acknowledging the influence of the family on these imagined futures whilst also recognising that children reflexively develop their own perspectives as they encounter new experiences. In the next section of the paper, I engage with policy interest in families and discuss further my conceptualisation of habitus and how this relates to children’s hopes for the future. In the central section I present a case study of children’s future employment plans, putting forward evidence to show that family socialisation predisposes children to consider particular occupational types over others. To this end, I utilise the concept of habitus as a flexible and non-deterministic method for understanding children’s perceptions of what courses of action are most appropriate for their future. Thirdly, I provide evidence to suggest that children’s aspirations are not simply a reflection of parental practices but rather show how the habitus is continually evolving, illustrating children’s agency in their reflexive resistance of particular occupational types in light of family experience. In conclusion, the article calls for further consideration of children’s hopes for the future and the factors which influence the dispositions of individuals, highlighting the imperative for educationalists to remain cognisant of children’s dispositions in efforts to (re)shape aspirations

Evaluation of Bovine Feces-Associated Microbial Source Tracking Markers and Their Correlations with Fecal Indicators and Zoonotic Pathogens in a Brisbane, Australia, Reservoir

This study was aimed at evaluating the host specificity and host sensitivity of two bovine feces-associated bacterial (BacCow-UCD and cowM3) and one viral {left open bracket}bovine adenovirus (B-AVs){right open bracket} microbial source tracking (MST) markers by screening 130 fecal and wastewater samples from 10 target and nontarget host groups in southeast Queensland, Australia. In addition, 36 water samples were collected from a reservoir and tested for the occurrence of all three bovine feces-associated markers along with fecal indicator bacteria (FIB), Campylobacter spp., Escherichia coli O157, and Salmonella spp. The overall host specificity values of the BacCow-UCD, cowM3, and B-AVs markers to differentiate between bovine and other nontarget host groups were 0.66, 0.88, and 1.00, respectively (maximum value of 1.00). The overall host sensitivity values of these markers, however, in composite bovine wastewater and individual bovine fecal DNA samples were 0.93, 0.90, and 0.60, respectively (maximum value of 1.00). Among the 36 water samples tested, 56%, 22%, and 6% samples were PCR positive for the BacCow-UCD, cowM3, and B-AVs markers, respectively. Among the 36 samples tested, 50% and 14% samples were PCR positive for the Campylobacter 16S rRNA and E. coli O157 rfbE genes, respectively. Based on the results, we recommend that multiple bovine feces-associated markers be used if possible for bovine fecal pollution tracking. Nonetheless, the presence of the multiple bovine feces-associated markers along with the presence of potential zoonotic pathogens indicates bovine fecal pollution in the reservoir water samples. Further research is required to understand the decay rates of these markers in relation to FIB and zoonotic pathogens

Bridging the cultural divide? : Exploring UK school pupils’ perceptions of medicine

Acknowledgements We would like to thank the study participants for sharing their experiences, the teachers who assisted with the organisation of the focus groups, and the medical school staff who facilitated contact with the high schools, particularly Sally Curtis (Faculty of Medicine, University of Southampton). We would also like to thank our reviewers at Medical Education for their insightful and constructive feedback. Funding We thank the College of Life Sciences and Medicine at the University of Aberdeen for funding KA's programme of doctoral research.Peer reviewedPostprin