Measures and models for causal inference in cross-sectional studies: arguments for the appropriateness of the prevalence odds ratio and related logistic regression

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Several papers have discussed which effect measures are appropriate to capture the contrast between exposure groups in cross-sectional studies, and which related multivariate models are suitable. Although some have favored the Prevalence Ratio over the Prevalence Odds Ratio -- thus suggesting the use of log-binomial or robust Poisson instead of the logistic regression models -- this debate is still far from settled and requires close scrutiny.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>In order to evaluate how accurately true causal parameters such as Incidence Density Ratio (IDR) or the Cumulative Incidence Ratio (CIR) are effectively estimated, this paper presents a series of scenarios in which a researcher happens to find a preset ratio of prevalences in a given cross-sectional study. Results show that, provided essential and non-waivable conditions for causal inference are met, the CIR is most often inestimable whether through the Prevalence Ratio or the Prevalence Odds Ratio, and that the latter is the measure that consistently yields an appropriate measure of the Incidence Density Ratio.</p> <p>Summary</p> <p>Multivariate regression models should be avoided when assumptions for causal inference from cross-sectional data do not hold. Nevertheless, if these assumptions are met, it is the logistic regression model that is best suited for this task as it provides a suitable estimate of the Incidence Density Ratio.</p

Optimising the Diagnosis of Prostate Cancer in the Era of Multiparametric Magnetic Resonance Imaging : A Cost-effectiveness Analysis Based on the Prostate MR Imaging Study (PROMIS)

Background The current recommendation of using transrectal ultrasound-guided biopsy (TRUSB) to diagnose prostate cancer misses clinically significant (CS) cancers. More sensitive biopsies (eg, template prostate mapping biopsy [TPMB]) are too resource intensive for routine use, and there is little evidence on multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MPMRI). Objective To identify the most effective and cost-effective way of using these tests to detect CS prostate cancer. Design, setting, and participants Cost-effectiveness modelling of health outcomes and costs of men referred to secondary care with a suspicion of prostate cancer prior to any biopsy in the UK National Health Service using information from the diagnostic Prostate MR Imaging Study (PROMIS). Intervention Combinations of MPMRI, TRUSB, and TPMB, using different definitions and diagnostic cut-offs for CS cancer. Outcome measurements and statistical analysis Strategies that detect the most CS cancers given testing costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) given long-term costs. Results and limitations The use of MPMRI first and then up to two MRI-targeted TRUSBs detects more CS cancers per pound spent than a strategy using TRUSB first (sensitivity = 0.95 [95% confidence interval {CI} 0.92–0.98] vs 0.91 [95% CI 0.86–0.94]) and is cost effective (ICER = £7,076 [€8350/QALY gained]). The limitations stem from the evidence base in the accuracy of MRI-targeted biopsy and the long-term outcomes of men with CS prostate cancer. Conclusions An MPMRI-first strategy is effective and cost effective for the diagnosis of CS prostate cancer. These findings are sensitive to the test costs, sensitivity of MRI-targeted TRUSB, and long-term outcomes of men with cancer, which warrant more empirical research. This analysis can inform the development of clinical guidelines. Patient summary We found that, under certain assumptions, the use of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging first and then up to two transrectal ultrasound-guided biopsy is better than the current clinical standard and is good value for money. The use of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging before transrectal ultrasound-guided biopsy can detect more clinically significant prostate cancer and be cost effective compared with the use of imaging post-biopsy

The role of government co-investment funds in the supply of entrepreneurial finance: An assessment of the early operation of the UK Angel Co-investment Fund

Co-investment funds – which invest alongside private investors, especially business angels – thereby leveraging their networks and experience and minimizing public sector transaction costs – are a recent approach by governments in various countries to address the early stage entrepreneurial funding gap which is perceived as a barrier to the ability of firms to scale-up. However, little literature exists on their operation, impact and effectiveness. This paper assesses the early operation of the UK’s Angel Co-investment Fund, established in 2011. Interview evidence from angels and business managers suggests that the Angel Co-investment Fund is improving the availability of finance by enabling firms to raise funding rounds of between £500,000 and £2 m, hence addressing some aspects of the broken finance escalator model. However, our evidence suggests that it is not yet impacting the supply side, either in terms of stimulating the formation of new angel groups or enhancing learning amongst less experienced angels. Some aspects of the operation of the investment process have attracted criticism from angels and entrepreneurs which need to be addressed. Nevertheless, there is sufficient evidence for positive impact to justify the scheme’s expansion

What do We Know About Entrepreneurial Finance and its Relationship with Growth?

This article explores what we do (and do not) know about entrepreneurial finance and its relationship with growth. Broadly, there is a need for research to go beyond traditional supply side/market failure issues to better understand the role of entrepreneurial cognition, objectives, ownership types and firm life-cycle stages in financing/investment decisions. We show that little is known about the pivotal relationship between access to external finance and growth due to limitations in current approaches to testing financial constraints. Instead, we propose that the relationship between funding gaps and business performance as a direct and nuanced approach to identifying financial constraints in different entrepreneurial finance markets requires scrutiny. There is also a necessity for research to disentangle cognitive from financial constraints and to better understand the role of financiers in enabling growth. In particular, there is a need to explore the relationship between non-bank sources of finance and growth, shorn of inherent survival and selection bias. We outline an agenda for future research to address gaps in our understanding

Differentiation in Neuroblastoma: Diffusion-Limited Hypoxia Induces Neuro-Endocrine Secretory Protein 55 and Other Markers of a Chromaffin Phenotype

Background: Neuroblastoma is a childhood malignancy of sympathetic embryonal origin. A high potential for differentiation is a hallmark of neuroblastoma cells. We have previously presented data to suggest that in situ differentiation in tumors frequently proceeds along the chromaffin lineage and that decreased oxygen ( hypoxia) plays a role in this. Here we explore the utility of Neuro-Endocrine Secretory Protein 55 ( NESP55), a novel member of the chromogranin family, as a marker for this process.Methodology/Principal Findings: Immunohistochemical analyses and in situ hybridizations were performed on human fetal tissues, mouse xenografts of human neuroblastoma cell lines, and on specimens of human neuroblastoma/ganglioneuroma. Effects of anaerobic exposure on gene expression by cultured neuroblastoma cells was analyzed with quantitative real-time PCR. Fetal sympathetic nervous system expression of NESP55 was shown to be specific for chromaffin cell types. In experimental and clinical neuroblastoma NESP55 immunoreactivity was specific for regions of chronic hypoxia. NESP55 expression also correlated strikingly with morphological evidence of differentiation and with other chromaffin-specific patterns of gene expression, including IGF2 and HIF2 alpha. Anaerobic culture of five neuroblastoma cell lines resulted in an 18.9-fold mean up-regulation of NESP55.Conclusions/Significance: The data confirms that chronic tumor hypoxia is a key microenvironmental factor for neuroblastoma cell differentiation, causing induction of chromaffin features and NESP55 provides a reliable marker for this neuronal to neuroendocrine transition. The hypoxia-induced phenotype is the predominant form of differentiation in stroma-poor tumors, while in stroma-rich tumors the chromaffin phenotype coexists with ganglion cell-like differentiation. The findings provide new insights into the biological diversity which is a striking feature of this group of tumors

High-intensity-focused ultrasound in the treatment of primary prostate cancer: the first UK series

BACKGROUND: The use of minimally invasive ablative therapies in localised prostate cancer offer potential for a middle ground between active surveillance and radical therapy. METHODS: An analysis of men with organ-confined prostate cancer treated with transrectal whole-gland HIFU (Sonablate 500) between 1 February 2005 and 15 May 2007 was carried out in two centres. Outcome data (side-effects using validated patient questionnaires, biochemical, histology) were evaluated. RESULTS: A total of 172 men were treated under general anaesthetic as day-case procedures with 78% discharged a mean 5 h after treatment. Mean follow-up was 346 days (range 135-759 days). Urethral stricture was significantly lower in those with suprapubic catheter compared with urethral catheters (19.4 vs 40.4%, P = 0.005). Antibiotics were given to 23.8% of patients for presumed urinary tract infection and the rate of epididymitis was 7.6%. Potency was maintained in 70% by 12 months, whereas mild stress urinary incontinence (no pads) was reported in 7.0% (12 out of 172) with a further 0.6% (1 out of 172) requiring pads. There was no rectal toxicity and no recto-urethral fistulae. In all, 78.3% achieved a PSA nadir <= 0.5 mu g ml(-1) at 12 months, with 57.8% achieving <= 0.2 mu g ml(-1). Then, 8 out of 13 were retreated with HIFU, one had salvage external beam radiotherapy and four chose active surveillance for small-volume low-risk disease. Overall, there was no evidence of disease (PSA <0.5 mu g ml(-1) or negative biopsy if nadir not achieved) after one HIFU session in 92.4% ( 159 out of 172) of patients. CONCLUSION: HIFU is a minimally invasive, day-case ablative technique that can achieve good biochemical outcomes in the short term with minimal urinary incontinence and acceptable levels of erectile dysfunction. Long-term outcome needs further evaluation and the inception of an international registry for cases treated using HIFU will significantly aid this health technology assessment. British Journal of Cancer (2009) 101, 19-26. doi: 10.1038/sj.bjc.6605116 www.bjcancer.com Published online 9 June 2009 (C) 2009 Cancer Research U

Psychometric evaluation of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale in a large community sample of adolescents in Hong Kong

Purpose: The Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) is widely used in adult populations; however, its usefulness with adolescents has been explored less. This study sought to evaluate the reliability, validity, and factor structure of the Chinese version of HADS in a community sample of adolescents residing in Hong Kong. Methods: A prospective cohort of 5,857 students recruited from 17 secondary schools completed the HADS. Internal consistency and concurrent validity were examined. Confirmatory factor analysis was applied to test the relative fits of six factor structures of the HADS. The best fitting model was further cross-validated by male, female, splithalf samples, and age subgroups. Results: The HADS possessed adequate internal consistency, especially for the anxiety subscale. Significant concurrent intercorrelations with self-reported suicidal thoughts and the Youth Self Report Anxious/Depressed subscale were discovered and found to be stronger for females. The cross-validation supported a two-factor model, where anxiety item 7, "I can sit at ease and feel relaxed", was placed in the depression subscale. Conclusions: The HADS showed satisfactory psychometric properties as a screening instrument in assessing anxious and depressive states as two correlated but distinct factors in adolescents. Study implications and recommendations for future research were discussed.published_or_final_versionSpringer Open Choice, 21 Feb 201

Estimating adjusted prevalence ratio in clustered cross-sectional epidemiological data

BACKGROUND: Many epidemiologic studies report the odds ratio as a measure of association for cross-sectional studies with common outcomes. In such cases, the prevalence ratios may not be inferred from the estimated odds ratios. This paper overviews the most commonly used procedures to obtain adjusted prevalence ratios and extends the discussion to the analysis of clustered cross-sectional studies. METHODS: Prevalence ratios(PR) were estimated using logistic models with random effects. Their 95% confidence intervals were obtained using delta method and clustered bootstrap. The performance of these approaches was evaluated through simulation studies. Using data from two studies with health-related outcomes in children, we discuss the interpretation of the measures of association and their implications. RESULTS: The results from data analysis highlighted major differences between estimated OR and PR. Results from simulation studies indicate an improved performance of delta method compared to bootstrap when there are small number of clusters. CONCLUSION: We recommend the use of logistic model with random effects for analysis of clustered data. The choice of method to estimate confidence intervals for PR (delta or bootstrap method) should be based on study design