Atmospheric Circulation Response to Anomalous Siberian Forcing in October 2016 and its Long‐Range Predictability

Abstract: The warm Arctic-cold continent pattern was of record strength in October 2016, providing the opportunity to test its proposed influence on large-scale atmospheric circulation. We find a record weak polar stratospheric vortex and negative North Atlantic Oscillation in November-December 2016 and link them to increased planetary wave generation associated with cold Siberian anomalies followed by troposphere-stratosphere dynamical coupling. At the same time the warm Arctic anomalies, in particular those over the Barents-Kara Seas, do not appear to play an important role in forcing the atmospheric circulation. Long-range forecasts initialized on 1 October 2016 reproduced both the weak polar vortex and negative North Atlantic Oscillation, as well as their link with the Siberian temperatures. Our results support the stratospheric pathway for atmospheric circulation forcing associated with Siberian surface anomalies and uncover a source of skill for subseasonal forecasts from October to December. Plain Language Summary: The warm Arctic-cold continent pattern is an observed, large-scale pattern of near-surface temperatures where the Arctic is warmer than average and Siberia is colder than average. This pattern was of record strength in October 2016, providing the opportunity to test its influence on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation and the possibility of skillful long-range forecasts. It has been proposed that the warm Arctic-cold continent pattern can drive large atmospheric waves, which are able to travel from the troposphere into the stratosphere, where they weaken the strong wintertime winds that make up the stratospheric polar vortex. A weakened polar vortex can then lead to changes in the surface pressure that can affect weather patterns. We find a record weak polar stratospheric vortex in late autumn 2016 and link that to cold Siberian anomalies. At the same time the warm Arctic anomalies do not appear to play an important role in forcing the atmospheric circulation. Long-range forecasts initialized in October 2016 reproduced both the weak polar vortex and resulting surface pressure patterns. Our results support the stratospheric pathway for atmospheric circulation forcing by Siberian surface anomalies and uncover a source of skill for subseasonal forecasts in the Northern Hemisphere autumn.Peer reviewe

Pathophysiology of heart failure and frailty: a common inflammatory origin?

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/136680/1/acel12581_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/136680/2/acel12581.pd

Forests and Carbon: A Synthesis of Science, Management, and Policy for Carbon Sequestration in Forests

The goal of this volume is to provide guidance for land managers and policymakers seeking to understand the complex science and policy of forest carbon as it relates to tangible problems of forest management and the more abstract problems of addressing drivers of deforestation and negotiating policy frameworks for reducing CO2 emissions from forests. It is the culmination of three graduate seminars at the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies focused on carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems and their role in addressing climate change

Instrumental variable meta-analysis of randomised trials of epidural analgesia in labour to adjust for non-compliance

Objective: Intention-to-treat analysis of randomised controlled trials may cause bias towards the null where non-compliance with the allocated intervention occurs. Instrumental variable analysis allows estimation of the causal effect adjusted for non-compliance. The aim of this study is to compare intention-to-treat and instrumental variable meta-analysis of the association between epidural analgesia in labour and caesarean section. Study design and Setting: The study was restricted to 27 trials in a recent Cochrane Systematic Review. For trials with data on compliance, the association between epidural analgesia in labour and caesarean section was calculated using intention-to-treat analysis and instrumental variable analysis. Fixed-effects meta-analysis was used to calculate pooled risk ratios. Results: In 18 trials with data on compliance, 23% of women allocated to epidural analgesia did not comply and 27% of women allocated to the control received epidural analgesia. Data on outcomes in non-compliant groups were available for 10 trials. The pooled risk ratio for caesarean section following epidural analgesia in labour was 1.37 (95% CI 1.00-1.89, p=0.049) using instrumental variable analysis compared to 1.19 (95% CI 0.93-1.51, p=0.16) using intention-to-treat analysis. Conclusion: Intention-to-treat meta-analysis underestimates the effect of receiving epidural analgesia in labour on caesarean section compared to instrumental variable meta-analysis.NHMR

Pearling: stroke segmentation with crusted pearl strings

We introduce a novel segmentation technique, called Pearling, for the semi-automatic extraction of idealized models of networks of strokes (variable width curves) in images. These networks may for example represent roads in an aerial photograph, vessels in a medical scan, or strokes in a drawing. The operator seeds the process by selecting representative areas of good (stroke interior) and bad colors. Then, the operator may either provide a rough trace through a particular path in the stroke graph or simply pick a starting point (seed) on a stroke and a direction of growth. Pearling computes in realtime the centerlines of the strokes, the bifurcations, and the thickness function along each stroke, hence producing a purified medial axis transform of a desired portion of the stroke graph. No prior segmentation or thresholding is required. Simple gestures may be used to trim or extend the selection or to add branches. The realtime performance and reliability of Pearling results from a novel disk-sampling approach, which traces the strokes by optimizing the positions and radii of a discrete series of disks (pearls) along the stroke. A continuous model is defined through subdivision. By design, the idealized pearl string model is slightly wider than necessary to ensure that it contains the stroke boundary. A narrower core model that fits inside the stroke is computed simultaneously. The difference between the pearl string and its core contains the boundary of the stroke and may be used to capture, compress, visualize, or analyze the raw image data along the stroke boundary