The Niger Food Crisis: Causes and Implications for Research and Development from an Integrated Agricultural Economics Perspective

During the 2004 food crisis in Niger, the weakness of the main production system, millet, to produce enough food to sustain short term crises, has been revealed. Questions arise how the Nigerian smallholder systems can be assisted by research and development policies to intensify production and improve food security. The paper assesses technical options according to their economic sustainability. A sequence of models is applied: On plot level, production functions of inter cropping systems were estimated to determine yields and their variability of the major crops. These data were fed in a nonlinear program to test the inn ovations, first at stable prices, then at declining prices that were obtained from an interregional trade model. The latter was shocked by the excess obtained from the innovations' surpluses. Results show that due to risk aversion and price volatility of output markets, farmers adopt intensive innovations less than expected. Instead, they switch to low-input techniques. Recommendations derived from the study are that research has to develop low-risk technologies to intensify Nigerian millet systems, and that domestic market policies have to stabilize prices in order to reduce market risks and set incentives for intensification. Price stabilization has to be done in a market-conform way, through buying and selling of millet, but not through price fixing or subsidizing.Food security, Niger, small scale farming, risk management, Food Security and Poverty, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, O13, Q01, Q12, Q16,

Collective action in Tanzania’s dairy value chains

Irish Ai

Multi-stakeholder architecture to transform smallholder dairy value chains in Tanzania

Irish Ai

Securing more income for marginalized communities in Tanzania through dairy market hubs–Mid-term progress report on the MoreMilkIT project

<p>Asterisk – significantly above chance level (P<0.05, chance level = 33%).</p

Implications of the ban on rice cultivation in Uganda’s wetlands for breeding and seed systems programing

Three rice seed product market segments currently exist for Uganda: DELS-U1 in the upland ecology and TMeLS-R and TMeLF-R2 in the rainfed lowland ecology. In 2021, the Ugandan government prohibited the cultivation of rice and all other crops in wetlands in a bid to protect wetlands from degradation, while still envisioning rice self-sufficiency by 2030. This means that the only ecologies in Uganda where investments can be made are in the upland and irrigated lowland ecologies. We examine three questions relevant to policy and breeding efforts: (1) What is the likely effect of the ban on the country’s goal of achieving rice self-sufficiency by 2030? (2) What rice yield level in the upland ecology would ensure national rice self-sufficiency by 2030 if the ban is sustained? (3) What yield level in the irrigated lowland ecology would ensure national self-sufficiency by 2030 given the ban? Under the most likely scenario for achieving the targets set in the second phase of the National Rice Development Strategy, the ban would cause a decline in the self-sufficiency ratio from the current 67 percent to 45 percent by 2030. If the ban is sustained, yield targets to ensure 100 percent self-sufficiency would have to increase from the current 1.30 tons per hectare to at least 5.55 tons per hectare on average in the upland ecology or from 3.10 tons per hectare to 12.70 tons per hectare in the irrigated lowland ecology. Implications for Uganda’s breeding program are discussed in the context of seed product market segments and the targeted traits of the breeding pipelines serving the market segments

Risk and uncertainty in milk production by smallholders in Tanzania: Implications for inclusiveness and investment

The study evaluates the impact of risk on enterprises of smallholder male, female and young milk producers in Tanzania’s formal and informal dairy value chains. It also examines the effect of uncertainty on the decision to invest in milk production in both value chains. Results indicate that youths in the informal value chain face the greatest level of risk followed by men in the formal value chain, and then men in the informal value chain. Women in both value chains and youths in the formal value chain face relatively low risk. Overall, milk production in the informal chain is found to be substantially riskier than production in the formal chain. Optimal investment triggers are found to be much larger than the conventional triggers and are sensitive to volatility of returns. The results’ policy and practical implications for inclusive dairy industry development in Tanzania are highlighted

Reducing risk and uncertainty in milk production by smallholders in Tanzania

Irish Ai