Multi-criteria Decision making in Components Importance Analysis applied to a Complex Marine System

This paper presents a possible application of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in a multi-criteria analysis of components importance to a system reliability structure illustrated by a stern tube sealing system installed on deep sea ships. We used the AHP to determine the relevance of the importance ranks and made an importance analysis for the criteria of reliability, safety and repair costs. We compared our results with the measures analysed and presented in literature before. We also presented some conclusions on using the AHP for multi-criteria analysis of components importance in Complex Technical Systems (CTS). We finished with suggestions for further research on quantitative and qualitative methods of importance analysis

Using the functional response of a consumer to predict biotic resistance to invasive prey

Predators sometimes provide biotic resistance against invasions by nonnative prey. Understanding and predicting the strength of biotic resistance remains a key challenge in invasion biology. A predator's functional response to nonnative prey may predict whether a predator can provide biotic resistance against nonnative prey at different prey densities. Surprisingly, functional responses have not been used to make quantitative predictions about biotic resistance. We parameterized the functional response of signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus) to invasive New Zealand mud snails (Potamopyrgus antipodarum; NZMS) and used this functional response and a simple model of NZMS population growth to predict the probability of biotic resistance at different predator and prey densities. Signal crayfish were effective predators of NZMS, consuming more than 900 NZMS per predator in a 12-h period, and Bayesian model fitting indicated their consumption rate followed a type 3 functional response to NZMS density. Based on this functional response and associated parameter uncertainty, we predict that NZMS will be able to invade new systems at low crayfish densities (0.2 crayfish/m²), we predict that low densities of NZMS will be able to establish in new communities; however, once NZMS reach a threshold density of similar to ~2000 NZMS/m², predation by crayfish will drive negative NZMS population growth. Further, at very high densities, NZMS overwhelm predation by crayfish and invade. Thus, interacting thresholds of propagule pressure and predator densities define the probability of biotic resistance. Quantifying the shape and uncertainty of predator functional responses to nonnative prey may help predict the outcomes of invasions.Keywords: British lowland river, Biotic resistance, Crayfish, Foraging behavior, Propagule pressure, Potamopyrgus antipodarum, Pacifastacus leniusculus, Plant invasion, Type 3 functional response, San Lorenzo River, California, USA, Stream, New Zealand mud snail, predation, Introduced population

Emergence of structural and dynamical properties of ecological mutualistic networks

Mutualistic networks are formed when the interactions between two classes of species are mutually beneficial. They are important examples of cooperation shaped by evolution. Mutualism between animals and plants plays a key role in the organization of ecological communities. Such networks in ecology have generically evolved a nested architecture independent of species composition and latitude - specialists interact with proper subsets of the nodes with whom generalists interact. Despite sustained efforts to explain observed network structure on the basis of community-level stability or persistence, such correlative studies have reached minimal consensus. Here we demonstrate that nested interaction networks could emerge as a consequence of an optimization principle aimed at maximizing the species abundance in mutualistic communities. Using analytical and numerical approaches, we show that because of the mutualistic interactions, an increase in abundance of a given species results in a corresponding increase in the total number of individuals in the community, as also the nestedness of the interaction matrix. Indeed, the species abundances and the nestedness of the interaction matrix are correlated by an amount that depends on the strength of the mutualistic interactions. Nestedness and the observed spontaneous emergence of generalist and specialist species occur for several dynamical implementations of the variational principle under stationary conditions. Optimized networks, while remaining stable, tend to be less resilient than their counterparts with randomly assigned interactions. In particular, we analytically show that the abundance of the rarest species is directly linked to the resilience of the community. Our work provides a unifying framework for studying the emergent structural and dynamical properties of ecological mutualistic networks.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figure

Poznań Cancer Centre 1953–2003

In 1952 in Poland an anticancer programme was developed, which as a result led to the establishment of a Cancer Centre in Poznań. The first organisational efforts were supervised by Dr. Czesław Wojnerowicz. In March 1952 it was decided that the Social Security Hospital in Poznań in Garbary Street would be transformed into one intended for oncological medical services. By the end of 1953 three wards (surgery, gynaecology and general) with a total of 100 beds were set up. Dr Stefan Skowroński was appointed the first head of the Centre (1953–1975), followed by Professor Cezary Ramlau (1975–1989), Dr. Alexander Górny (1989–1995) and since 1995 Associate Professor Julian Malicki.In March 1975 as a consequence of the administrative reform in Poland the additional aim of the Centre was to integrate and develop oncological medical services over the whole region comprising the following voyevodships: Poznań, Kalisz, Konin, Leszno and Piła. In the 1980s the oncological hospital was again rebuilt and the number of beds enlarged to 250. In 2000 construction on a new section of the hospital was started to be completed by 2005.Over its whole past history Cancer Centre in Poznań in conjunction with the regional health services, hospitals of the Medical University and other hospitals, has been carrying out teaching at the graduate and postgraduate level as well as doing research in addition to treatment and diagnosis of cancer diseases.At present at the Poznań Cancer Centre with its 7 hospital wards such as Oncological Surgery I and II, General Radiotherapy I and II, Chemotherapy, Radiotherapy and Gynaecological Oncology as well as Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care, a total of 11.000 patients are treated, 120.000 patients are seen in consulting rooms, 4.000 patients are treated by radiation, 3.500 major surgical operations and 1.600 one-day smaller surgeries are performed annually

Trapping for invasive crayfish: comparisons of efficacy and selectivity of baited traps versus novel artificial refuge traps.

Non-native crayfish can dominate the invertebrate biomass of invaded freshwaters, with their high ecological impacts resulting in their populations being controlled by numerous methods, especially trapping. Although baited funnel traps (BTs) are commonly used, they tend to be selective in mainly catching large-bodied males. Here, the efficacy and selectivity of BTs were tested against an alternative trapping method based on artificial refuges (ARTs) that comprised of a metal base with several tubes (refuges) attached. The target species was signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus in an upland river in southwest England. Trapping was completed in April to October over two consecutive years. In total, 5,897 crayfish were captured, with 87 % captured in ARTs. Comparison of the CPUE between the trapping methods in the same 24 hour periods revealed significantly higher CPUE in ARTs than of BTs. ARTs fished for 6 consecutive days had higher catches than both methods over 24 hours. Whilst catches in BTs were significantly dominated by males (1.49M:1F), the sex ratio of catches in ARTs was 0.99M:1F. The mean carapace length of crayfish was also significantly larger in BTs (43.2 ± 0.6 mm) than in ARTs (33.6 ± 0.2 mm). Thus, ARTs had higher CPUE over 24 hour and 6 day periods versus BTs and also captured a greater proportion of smaller and female individuals. These results indicate that when trapping methods are deployed for managing invasions, the use of ARTs removes substantial numbers of crayfish of both sexes and of varying body sizes

Dominance, reproductive behaviours and female mate choice in sterilised versus non-sterilised invasive male crayfish

© 2020, The Author(s). Many methods of controlling invasive crayfishes have limited success because they fail to target all life stages of the population, notably by capturing only large adults that can result in increased juvenile recruitment by removing intraspecific predation. An alternative approach uses the sterile male release technique that involves the mass release of sterile males into the environment, which then mate with fertile females, resulting in unfertilised eggs and, ultimately, reduced juvenile recruitment. This does, however, rely on the sterilised males exhibiting behaviours similar to non-sterilised (entire) males and remaining attractive to females during mate choice. Post-copulatory male guarding behaviour and female promiscuity might also be affected by male sterilisation. To test for the presence of normal reproductive behaviours in sterilised male American signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus, a two-stage experiment examined how sterilisation affects female mate choice and promiscuity, male hierarchical status (relative dominance) and post-copulation guarding. Sterilised males showed similar reproductive behaviours to entire males and remained as attractive to females, with no differences in relative dominance. Post-copulation, guarding behaviours were also unaffected. Females did not display promiscuous behaviour and this was unaffected by whether males were entire or sterilised. The results demonstrated that sterilised males were equally as capable as entire males of achieving dominance and winning mates. In combination, these findings suggest that male sterilisation could be an effective control technique to help reduce juvenile recruitment in wild P. leniusculus populations by reducing reproductive success

Behavioral differences in an over‐invasion scenario: marbled vs. spiny‐cheek crayfish

New species often invade ecosystems already dominated by previous invaders. Ornamental freshwater crayfish, particularly parthenogenetic marbled crayfish (Procambarus virginalis), increasingly establish in European water bodies where they interact with resident native and non‐native species. Behavioral traits and behavioral syndromes can influence the outcome of these species interactions. The behavior of non‐native crayfish is often studied in notorious invaders but rarely in new and emerging species, although those provide the best opportunity for management. Activity, aggressiveness, and boldness have repeatedly been associated with invasion success and species displacement. Further, crayfish can adapt their behavior after they have established in the new range. We investigated whether marbled crayfish can displace the widely established spiny‐cheek crayfish (Orconectes limosus). Specifically, we compared their behavioral traits and evaluated whether these traits differ, using marbled crayfish populations from aquaria and the field and spiny‐cheek crayfish from the field. We staged agonistic encounters, measured activity levels, and recorded the response to a simulated threat of both species and both origins (field and aquarium) in laboratory trials. We found that in agonistic encounters, marbled crayfish were on average more aggressive than spiny‐cheek crayfish, even against larger opponents. Aggressiveness and activity were positively correlated, which is indicative for an aggression syndrome. Marbled crayfish from the field were less active than those from aquaria, but there was no difference in aggressiveness. Marbled crayfish often froze in response to a simulated threat, whereas spiny‐cheek crayfish reacted either offensively or defensively. These results from the laboratory illustrate potentially important behavioral mechanisms behind crayfish over‐invasions and show behavioral plasticity in a species where all known individuals are genetically identical. To better understand the invasion process in nature, the species’ reproductive biology and interactions with other members of the community should be considered. We conclude that the recent success of marbled crayfish in establishing new populations could be influenced by their behavioral flexibility and their potential to competitively persist in the presence of established invasive crayfish

Using eDNA to detect the distribution and density of invasive crayfish in the Honghe-Hani rice terrace World Heritage site

The Honghe-Hani landscape in China is a UNESCO World Natural Heritage site due to the beauty of its thousands of rice terraces, but these structures are in danger from the invasive crayfish Procambarus clarkii. Crayfish dig nest holes, which collapse terrace walls and destroy rice production. Under the current control strategy, farmers self-report crayfish and are issued pesticide, but this strategy is not expected to eradicate the crayfish nor to prevent their spread since farmers are not able to detect small numbers of crayfish. Thus, we tested whether environmental DNA (eDNA) from paddy-water samples could provide a sensitive detection method. In an aquarium experiment, Real-time Quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) successfully detected crayfish, even at a simulated density of one crayfish per average-sized paddy (with one false negative). In a field test, we tested eDNA and bottle traps against direct counts of crayfish. eDNA successfully detected crayfish in all 25 paddies where crayfish were observed and in none of the 7 paddies where crayfish were absent. Bottle-trapping was successful in only 68% of the crayfish-present paddies. eDNA concentrations also correlated positively with crayfish counts. In sum, these results suggest that single samples of eDNA are able to detect small crayfish populations, but not perfectly. Thus, we conclude that a program of repeated eDNA sampling is now feasible and likely reliable for measuring crayfish geographic range and for detecting new invasion fronts in the Honghe Hani landscape, which would inform regional control efforts and help to prevent the further spread of this invasive crayfish