The Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Framework: a viable procurement option for developing states?

In this article, I argue that the Pandemic Influenza Preparedness (PIP) Framework is unlikely to have a significant impact on procurement of pandemic influenza vaccines by developing states during the next pandemic. I argue this on the basis that the vaccine stockpile that the Framework has created is not sufficiently large to meet the demand from developing states. I also argue that the fact that so few pandemic influenza vaccine manufacturers have committed to supply the PIP stockpile, and those that have, have given commitments lower than those initially proposed by the World Health Organization in the Framework, implies that the overall impact the PIP stockpile will have on procurement of pandemic influenza vaccines is even lower than initially anticipated within the literature. Keyword

Lagrangian particle path formulation of multilayer shallow-water flows dynamically coupled to vessel motion

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Springer Verlag via the DOI in this record.The coupled motion—between multiple inviscid, incompressible, immiscible fluid layers in a rectangular vessel with a rigid lid and the vessel dynamics—is considered. The fluid layers are assumed to be thin and the shallow-water assumption is applied. The governing form of the Lagrangian functional in the Lagrangian particle path (LPP) framework is derived for an arbitrary number of layers, while the corresponding Hamiltonian is explicitly derived in the case of two- and three-layer fluids. The Hamiltonian formulation has nice properties for numerical simulations, and a fast, effective and symplectic numerical scheme is presented in the two- and three-layer cases, based upon the implicit-midpoint rule. Results of the simulations are compared with linear solutions and with the existing results of Alemi Ardakani et al. (J Fluid Struct 59:432–460, 2015) which were obtained using a finite volume approach in the Eulerian representation. The latter results are extended to non-Boussinesq regimes. The advantages and limitations of the LPP formulation and variational discretization are highlighted.This work is supported by the EPSRC under Grant number EP/K008188/1

Shallow-water sloshing in a moving vessel with variable cross-section and wetting-drying using an extension of George's well-balanced finite volume solver

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.A class of augmented approximate Riemann solvers due to George (2008) is extended to solve the shallow-water equations in a moving vessel with variable bottom topography and variable cross-section with wetting and drying. A class of Roe-type upwind solvers for the system of balance laws is derived which respects the steady-state solutions. The numerical solutions of the new adapted augmented f-wave solvers are validated against the Roe-type solvers. The theory is extended to solve the shallow-water flows in moving vessels with arbitrary cross-section with influx-efflux boundary conditions motivated by the shallow-water sloshing in the ocean wave energy converter (WEC) proposed by Offshore Wave Energy Ltd. (OWEL). A fractional step approach is used to handle the time-dependent forcing functions. The numerical solutions are compared to an extended new Roe-type solver for the system of balance laws with a time-dependent source function. The shallow-water sloshing finite volume solver can be coupled to a Runge-Kutta integrator for the vessel motion.The research reported in this paper is supported by the EPSRC under Grant number EP/K008188/1. Due to confidentiality agreements with research collaborators, supporting data can only be made available to bona fide researchers subject to a non-disclosure agreement. Details of the data and how to request access are available from the University of Surrey publications repository: [email protected]. The authors are grateful to both referees for their valuable comments

Adaptation of f-wave finite volume methods to the two-layer shallow-water equations in a moving vessel with a rigid-lid

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this recordA numerical method is proposed to solve the two-layer inviscid, incompressible and immiscible 1D shallow-water equations in a moving vessel with a rigid-lid with different boundary conditions based on the high-resolution f-wave finite volume methods due to Bale et al. (2002). The method splits the jump in the fluxes and source terms including the pressure gradient at the rigid-lid into waves propagating away from each grid cell interface. For the influx-efflux boundary conditions the time dependent source terms are handled via a fractional step approach. In the linear case the numerical solutions are validated by comparison with the exact analytical solutions. Numerical solutions presented for the nonlinear case include shallow-water sloshing waves due to prescribed surge motion of the vessel.The research reported in this paper is supported by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council Grant EP/K008188/1. Due to confidentiality agreements with research collaborators, supporting data can only be made available to bona fide researchers subject to a non-disclosure agreement. Details of the data and how to request access are available from the University of Surrey publications repository: [email protected]

Study protocol: evaluation of a parenting and stress management programme: a randomised controlled trial of Triple P discussion groups and stress control

<br>Background: Children displaying psychosocial problems are at an increased risk of negative developmental outcomes. Parenting practices are closely linked with child development and behaviour, and parenting programmes have been recommended in the treatment of child psychosocial problems. However, parental mental health also needs to be addressed when delivering parenting programmes as it is linked with parenting practices, child outcomes, and treatment outcomes of parenting programmes. This paper describes the protocol of a study examining the effects of a combined intervention of a parenting programme and a cognitive behavioural intervention for mental health problems.</br> <br>Methods: The effects of a combined intervention of Triple P Discussion Groups and Stress Control will be examined using a randomised controlled trial design. Parents with a child aged 3?8?years will be recruited to take part in the study. After obtaining informed consent and pre-intervention measures, participants will be randomly assigned to either an intervention or a waitlist condition. The two primary outcomes for this study are change in dysfunctional/ineffective parenting practices and change in symptoms of depression, anxiety, and stress. Secondary outcomes are child behaviour problems, parenting experiences, parental self-efficacy, family relationships, and positive parental mental health. Demographic information, participant satisfaction with the intervention, and treatment fidelity data will also be collected. Data will be collected at pre-intervention, mid-intervention, post-intervention, and 3-month follow-up.</br> <br>Discussion: The aim of this paper is to describe the study protocol of a randomised controlled trial evaluating the effects of a combined intervention of Triple P Discussion Groups and Stress Control in comparison to a waitlist condition. This study is important because it will provide evidence about the effects of this combined intervention for parents with 3?8?year old children. The results of the study could be used to inform policy about parenting support and support for parents with mental health problems. Trial registration ClinicalTrial.gov: NCT01777724, UTN: U1111-1137-1053.</br&gt

International Collaboration to Ensure Equitable Access to Vaccines for COVID‐19: The ACT‐Accelerator and the COVAX Facility

Policy Points Equitable access to a COVID‐19 vaccine in all countries remains a key policy objective, but experience of previous pandemics suggests access will be limited in developing countries, despite the rapid development of three successful vaccine candidates. The COVAX Facility seeks to address this important issue, but the prevalence of vaccine nationalism threatens to limit the ability of the facility to meet both its funding targets and its ambitious goals for vaccine procurement. A failure to adequately address the underlying lack of infrastructure in developing countries threatens to further limit the success of the COVAX Facility. Context Significant effort has been directed toward developing a COVID‐19 vaccine, which is viewed as the route out of the pandemic. Much of this effort has coalesced around COVAX, the multilateral initiative aimed at accelerating the development of COVID‐19 vaccines, and ensuring they are equitably available in low‐ and middle‐income countries (LMICs). This paper represents the first significant analysis of COVAX, and the extent to which it can be said to have successfully met these aims. Methods This paper draws on the publicly available policy documents made available by the COVAX initiatives, as well as position papers and public statements from governments around the world with respect to COVID‐19 vaccines and equitable access. We analyze the academic literature regarding access to vaccines during the H1N1 pandemic. Finally, we consider the WHO Global Allocation System, and its principles, which are intended to guide COVAX vaccine deployment. Findings We argue that the funding mechanism deployed by the COVAX Pillar appears to be effective at fostering at‐risk investments in research and development and the production of doses in advance of confirmation of clinical efficacy, but caution that this represents a win‐win situation for vaccine manufacturers, providing them with opportunity to benefit regardless of whether their vaccine candidate ever goes on to gain regulatory approval. We also argue that the success of the COVAX Facility with respect to equitable access to vaccine is likely to be limited, primarily as a result of the prevalence of vaccine nationalism, whereby countries adopt policies which heavily prioritize their own public health needs at the expense of others. Conclusions Current efforts through COVAX have greatly accelerated the development of vaccines against COVID‐19, but these benefits are unlikely to flow to LMICs, largely due to the threat of vaccine nationalism