The Richard commission and the financing of devolved government : the economics of devolution in Wales: Briefing No. 8

If the Barnett formula is rigorously applied to determine the budget of the Welsh Assembly Government, this will ultimately adversely affect the economy of Wales by limiting the growth in aggregate demand. This effect is reinforced now that population weights determining rises in expenditure in Wales (and Scotland and Northern Ireland) are regularly up-dated. There is some controversy in Wales about whether some form of needs-assessment exercise would favour Wales relative to its current position. What is clear is that the outcome of a rigorous, long term application of the Barnett formula would be a share of UK public expenditures in Wales (and Scotland and Northern Ireland) that was almost certainly below the level that would be dictated by any conventional understanding of 'needs'. The impact of the tax-varying power favoured by the Richard Commission is ambiguous, with the direction of effects dependent on the reaction of the current labour force and potential migrants. If workers insist on full compensation for loss of income to tax through a rise in gross wages a tax rise would lead to an economic contraction. However, if workers value the additional public services financed by the tax rise as equal to their loss of disposable income, this effect can be avoided. Much in other words would depend on how the proceeds of the tax rise were spen

'Writing my first academic article feels like dancing around naked': research development for higher education lecturers working in further education colleges

Growing emphasis on research output has spawned initiatives to enhance writing practices, often targeted at groups less familiar with academic research practices. This paper discusses a collaborative writing group project for higher education lecturers working in further education colleges. Participants had previously undertaken funded pedagogic research projects. The authors analyse participants' writing during the initiative and data to review the design, operation and impact of the writing group. They discuss challenging preconceptions and normalising the practice of writing, consider how academic developers can support lecturers' writing practices and identify recommendations to promote the longer term impact of such work. © 2013 Taylor & Francis

Reddenings of FGK supergiants and classical Cepheids from spectroscopic data

Accurate and homogeneous atmospheric parameters (Teff, log (g), Vt, [Fe/H]) are derived for 74 FGK non-variable supergiants from high-resolution, high signal-to-noise ratio, echelle spectra. Extremely high precision for the inferred effective temperatures (10-40 K) is achieved by using the line-depth ratio method. The new data are combined with atmospheric values for 164 classical Cepheids, observed at 675 different pulsation phases, taken from our previously published studies. The derived values are correlated with unreddened B-V colours compiled from the literature for the investigated stars in order to obtain an empirical relationship of the form: (B-V)o = 57.984 - 10.3587(log Teff)^2 + 1.67572(log Teff)^3 - 3.356(log (g)) + 0.0321(Vt) + 0.2615[Fe/H] + 0.8833((log (g))(log Teff)). The expression is used to estimate colour excesses E(B-V) for individual supergiants and classical Cepheids, with a precision of +-0.05 mag. for supergiants and Cepheids with n=1-2 spectra, reaching +-0.025 mag. for Cepheids with n>2 spectra, matching uncertainties for the most sophisticated photometric techniques. The reddening scale is also a close match to the system of space reddenings for Cepheids. The application range is for spectral types F0--K0 and luminosity classes I and II.Comment: accepted for publication (MNRAS

340 years of atmospheric circulation characteristics reconstructed from an eastern Antarctic Peninsula ice core

Copyright @ 2006 American Geophysical Union (AGU)Precipitation delivery mechanisms for Dolleman Island (DI), located off the east coast of the Antarctic Peninsula, are investigated using reanalysis and back trajectory data. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and ENSO are both shown to influence precipitation delivery and event size. Precipitation delivery variability is compared against the interannual variation of chemical data from two DI ice cores. Nitrate concentration in the cores is strongly linked with the ratio of easterly to westerly back trajectories arriving at DI, as described by a Cross-Peninsula Index (CPI) defined in this paper. This CPI is used subsequently to reconstruct the atmospheric circulation characteristics for the 340-year ice core record. The analysis highlights a period of increased easterlies during 1720–1780 and an increase in westerlies for 1950–1980, the latter concomitant with a positive SAM trend and western Peninsula warming. The reconstruction also reveals periods when polynyas may have been present in the Weddell Sea

Acute military psychiatric casualties from the war in Iraq

Background: The view that most military personnel evacuated from war zones are suffering from combat stress reactions, or are otherwise traumatised by the horrors of war, has an impact on all aspects of military psychiatry. Aims: To delineate the reasons for psychiatric aeromedical evacuation from Iraq from the start of build-up of UK forces in January 2003 until the end of October that year, 6 months after the end of formal hostilities. Method: A retrospective study was conducted of field and in-patient psychiatric assessments of 116 military personnel evacuated to the UK military psychiatric in-patient facility in Catterick Garrison. Results: Evacuees were mainly non-combatants (69%). A significant proportion were in reserve service (21%) and had a history of contact with mental health services (37%). Only 3% had a combat stress reaction. In over 85% of cases evacuation was for low mood attributed to separation from friends or family, or difficulties adjusting to the environment. Conclusions: These findings have implications especially for screening for suitability for deployment, and for understanding any longer-term mental health problems arising in veterans from Iraq

Automated Annotation of Functional Imaging Experiments via Multi-Label Classification

Identifying the experimental methods in human neuroimaging papers is important for grouping meaningfully similar experiments for meta-analyses. Currently, this can only be done by human readers. We present the performance of common machine learning (text mining) methods applied to the problem of automatically classifying or labeling this literature. Labeling terms are from the Cognitive Paradigm Ontology (CogPO), the text corpora are abstracts of published functional neuroimaging papers, and the methods use the performance of a human expert as training data. We aim to replicate the expert’s annotation of multiple labels per abstract identifying the experimental stimuli, cognitive paradigms, response types, and other relevant dimensions of the experiments. We use several standard machine learning methods: naive Bayes (NB), k -nearest neighbor, and support vector machines (specifically SMO or sequential minimal optimization). Exact match performance ranged from only 15% in the worst cases to 78% in the best cases. NB methods combined with binary relevance transformations performed strongly and were robust to overfitting. This collection of results demonstrates what can be achieved with off-the-shelf software components and little to no pre-processing of raw text

Simulation of sub-millimetre atmospheric spectra for characterizing potential ground-based remote sensing observations

The sub-millimetre is an understudied region of the Earth's atmospheric electromagnetic spectrum. Prior technological gaps and relatively high opacity due to the prevalence of rotational water vapour lines at these wavelengths have slowed progress from a ground-based remote sensing perspective; however, emerging superconducting detector technologies in the fields of astronomy offer the potential to address key atmospheric science challenges with new instrumental methods. A site study, with a focus on the polar regions, is performed to assess theoretical feasibility by simulating the downwelling clear-sky sub-millimetre spectrum from 30 mm (10 GHz) to 150 μm (2000 GHz) at six locations under annual mean, summer, winter, daytime, nighttime and low humidity conditions. Vertical profiles of temperature, pressure and 28 atmospheric gases are constructed by combining radiosonde, meteorological reanalysis, and atmospheric chemistry model data. The sensitivity of the simulated spectra to the choice of water vapour continuum model and spectroscopic line database is explored. For the atmospheric trace species hypobromous acid (HOBr), hydrogen bromide (HBr), perhydroxyl radical (HO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O) the emission lines producing the largest change in brightness temperature are identified. Signal strengths, centre frequencies, bandwidths, estimated minimum integration times and maximum receiver noise temperatures are determined for all cases. HOBr, HBr and HO2 produce brightness temperature peaks in the mK to K range, whereas the N2O peaks are in the K range. The optimal sub-millimetre remote sensing lines for the four species are shown to vary significantly between location and scenario, strengthening the case for future hyperspectral instruments that measure over a broad wavelength range. The techniques presented here provide a framework that can be applied to additional species of interest and taken forward to simulate retrievals and guide the design of future sub-millimetre instruments

User-centered development of a Virtual Research Environment to support collaborative research events

This paper discusses the user-centred development process within the Collaborative Research Events on the Web (CREW) project, funded under the JISC Virtual Research Environments (VRE) programme. After presenting the project, its aims and the functionality of the CREW VRE, we focus on the user engagement approach, grounded in the method of co-realisation. We describe the different research settings and requirements of our three embedded user groups and the respective activities conducted so far. Finally we elaborate on the main challenges of our user engagement approach and end with the project’s next steps

ASPIRE-2-PREVENT: a survey of lifestyle, risk factor management and cardioprotective medication in patients with coronary heart disease and people at high risk of developing cardiovascular disease in the UK.

OBJECTIVE: To determine in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) and people at high risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD) whether the Joint British Societies' guidelines on CVD prevention (JBS2) are followed in everyday clinical practice. DESIGN: A cross-sectional survey was undertaken of medical records and patient interviews and examinations at least 6 months after the recruiting event or diagnosis using standardised instruments and a central laboratory for measurement of lipids and glucose. SETTINGS: The ASPIRE-2-PREVENT survey was undertaken in 19 randomly selected hospitals and 19 randomly selected general practices in 12 geographical regions in England, Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland. PATIENTS: In hospitals, 1474 consecutive patients with CHD were identified and 676 (25.6% women) were interviewed. In general practice, 943 people at high CVD risk were identified and 446 (46.5% women) were interviewed. RESULTS: The prevalence of risk factors in patients with CHD and high-risk individuals was, respectively: smoking 14.1%, 13.3%; obesity 38%, 50.2%; not reaching physical activity target 83.3%, 85.4%; blood pressure ≥130/80 mm Hg (patients with CHD and self-reported diabetes) or ≥140/85 mm Hg (high-risk individuals) 46.9%, 51.3%; total cholesterol ≥4 mmol/l 52.6%, 78.7%; and diabetes 17.8%, 43.8%. CONCLUSIONS: The potential among patients with CHD and individuals at high risk of developing CVD in the UK to achieve the JBS2 lifestyle and risk factor targets is considerable. CVD prevention needs a comprehensive multidisciplinary approach, addressing all aspects of lifestyle and risk factor management. The challenge is to engage and motivate cardiologists, physicians and other health professionals to routinely practice high quality preventive cardiology in a healthcare system which must invest in prevention