Realistic expectations are key to realising the benefits of polygenic scores.

We must not let enthusiasm around polygenic scores allow us to forget other factors that are bigger, more modifiable, and relevant for everyone, argue Amit Sud, Rachel Horton, and colleague

Realistic expectations are key to realising the benefits of polygenic scores

We must not let enthusiasm around polygenic scores allow us to forget other factors that are bigger, more modifiable, and relevant for everyone, argue Amit Sud, Rachel Horton, and colleague

Impact of antibiotics for children presenting to general practice with cough on adverse outcomes: secondary analysis from a multicentre prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Clinicians commonly prescribe antibiotics to prevent major adverse outcomes in children presenting in primary care with cough and respiratory symptoms, despite limited meaningful evidence of impact on these outcomes. AIM: To estimate the effect of children's antibiotic prescribing on adverse outcomes within 30 days of initial consultation. DESIGN AND SETTING: Secondary analysis of 8320 children in a multicentre prospective cohort study, aged 3 months to <16 years, presenting in primary care across England with acute cough and other respiratory symptoms. METHOD: Baseline clinical characteristics and antibiotic prescribing data were collected, and generalised linear models were used to estimate the effect of antibiotic prescribing on adverse outcomes within 30 days (subsequent hospitalisations and reconsultation for deterioration), controlling for clustering and clinicians' propensity to prescribe antibiotics. RESULTS: Sixty-five (0.8%) children were hospitalised and 350 (4%) reconsulted for deterioration. Clinicians prescribed immediate and delayed antibiotics to 2313 (28%) and 771 (9%), respectively. Compared with no antibiotics, there was no clear evidence that antibiotics reduced hospitalisations (immediate antibiotic risk ratio [RR] 0.83, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.47 to 1.45; delayed RR 0.70, 95% CI = 0.26 to 1.90, overall P = 0.44). There was evidence that delayed (rather than immediate) antibiotics reduced reconsultations for deterioration (immediate RR 0.82, 95% CI = 0.65 to 1.07; delayed RR 0.55, 95% CI = 0.34 to 0.88, overall P = 0.024). CONCLUSION: Most children presenting with acute cough and respiratory symptoms in primary care are not at risk of hospitalisation, and antibiotics may not reduce the risk. If an antibiotic is considered, a delayed antibiotic prescription may be preferable as it is likely to reduce reconsultation for deterioration

What gives rise to clinician gut feeling, its influence on management decisions and its prognostic value for children with RTI in primary care: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The objectives were to identify 1) the clinician and child characteristics associated with; 2) clinical management decisions following from, and; 3) the prognostic value of; a clinician's 'gut feeling something is wrong' for children presenting to primary care with acute cough and respiratory tract infection (RTI). METHODS: Multicentre prospective cohort study where 518 primary care clinicians across 244 general practices in England assessed 8394 children aged ≥3 months and < 16 years for acute cough and RTI. The main outcome measures were: Self-reported clinician 'gut feeling'; clinician management decisions (antibiotic prescribing, referral for acute admission); and child's prognosis (reconsultation with evidence of illness deterioration, hospital admission in the 30 days following recruitment). RESULTS: Clinician years since qualification, parent reported symptoms (illness severity score ≥ 7/10, severe fever < 24 h, low energy, shortness of breath) and clinical examination findings (crackles/ crepitations on chest auscultation, recession, pallor, bronchial breathing, wheeze, temperature ≥ 37.8 °C, tachypnoea and inflamed pharynx) independently contributed towards a clinician 'gut feeling that something was wrong'. 'Gut feeling' was independently associated with increased antibiotic prescribing and referral for secondary care assessment. After adjustment for other associated factors, gut feeling was not associated with reconsultations or hospital admissions. CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians were more likely to report a gut feeling something is wrong, when they were more experienced or when children were more unwell. Gut feeling is independently and strongly associated with antibiotic prescribing and referral to secondary care, but not with two indicators of poor child health

Utility of polygenic risk scores in UK cancer screening: a modelling analysis

BACKGROUND: It is proposed that, through restriction to individuals delineated as high risk, polygenic risk scores (PRSs) might enable more efficient targeting of existing cancer screening programmes and enable extension into new age ranges and disease types. To address this proposition, we present an overview of the performance of PRS tools (ie, models and sets of single nucleotide polymorphisms) alongside harms and benefits of PRS-stratified cancer screening for eight example cancers (breast, prostate, colorectal, pancreas, ovary, kidney, lung, and testicular cancer). METHODS: For this modelling analysis, we used age-stratified cancer incidences for the UK population from the National Cancer Registration Dataset (2016–18) and published estimates of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for current, future, and optimised PRS for each of the eight cancer types. For each of five PRS-defined high-risk quantiles (ie, the top 50%, 20%, 10%, 5%, and 1%) and according to each of the three PRS tools (ie, current, future, and optimised) for the eight cancers, we calculated the relative proportion of cancers arising, the odds ratios of a cancer arising compared with the UK population average, and the lifetime cancer risk. We examined maximal attainable rates of cancer detection by age stratum from combining PRS-based stratification with cancer screening tools and modelled the maximal impact on cancer-specific survival of hypothetical new UK programmes of PRS-stratified screening. FINDINGS: The PRS-defined high-risk quintile (20%) of the population was estimated to capture 37% of breast cancer cases, 46% of prostate cancer cases, 34% of colorectal cancer cases, 29% of pancreatic cancer cases, 26% of ovarian cancer cases, 22% of renal cancer cases, 26% of lung cancer cases, and 47% of testicular cancer cases. Extending UK screening programmes to a PRS-defined high-risk quintile including people aged 40–49 years for breast cancer, 50–59 years for colorectal cancer, and 60–69 years for prostate cancer has the potential to avert, respectively, a maximum of 102, 188, and 158 deaths annually. Unstratified screening of the full population aged 48–49 years for breast cancer, 58–59 years for colorectal cancer, and 68–69 years for prostate cancer would use equivalent resources and avert, respectively, an estimated maximum of 80, 155, and 95 deaths annually. These maximal modelled numbers will be substantially attenuated by incomplete population uptake of PRS profiling and cancer screening, interval cancers, non-European ancestry, and other factors. INTERPRETATION: Under favourable assumptions, our modelling suggests modest potential efficiency gain in cancer case detection and deaths averted for hypothetical new PRS-stratified screening programmes for breast, prostate, and colorectal cancer. Restriction of screening to high-risk quantiles means many or most incident cancers will arise in those assigned as being low-risk. To quantify real-world clinical impact, costs, and harms, UK-specific cluster-randomised trials are required. FUNDING: The Wellcome Trust

Development and internal validation of a clinical rule to improve antibiotic use in children presenting to primary care with acute respiratory tract infection and cough: a prognostic cohort study

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance is a serious threat to public health, with most antibiotics prescribed in primary care. General practitioners (GPs) report defensive antibiotic prescribing to mitigate perceived risk of future hospital admission in children with respiratory tract infections. We developed a clinical rule aimed to reduce clinical uncertainty by stratifying risk of future hospital admission. METHODS: 8394 children aged between 3 months and 16 years presenting with acute cough (for ≤28 days) and respiratory tract infection were recruited to a prognostic cohort study from 247 general practitioner practices in England. Exposure variables included demographic characteristics, parent-reported symptoms, and physical examination signs. The outcome was hospital admission for respiratory tract infection within 30 days, collected using a structured, blinded review of medical records. FINDINGS: 8394 (100%) children were included in the analysis, with 78 (0·9%, 95% CI 0·7%-1·2%) admitted to hospital: 15 (19%) were admitted on the day of recruitment (day 1), 33 (42%) on days 2-7; and 30 (39%) on days 8-30. Seven characteristics were independently associated (p<0·01) with hospital admission: age <2 years, current asthma, illness duration of 3 days or less, parent-reported moderate or severe vomiting in the previous 24 h, parent-reported severe fever in the previous 24 h or a body temperature of 37·8°C or more at presentation, clinician-reported intercostal or subcostal recession, and clinician-reported wheeze on auscultation. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve for the coefficient-based clinical rule was 0·82 (95% CI 0·77-0·87, bootstrap validated 0·81). Assigning one point per characteristic, a points-based clinical rule consisting of short illness, temperature, age, recession, wheeze, asthma, and vomiting (mnemonic STARWAVe; AUROC 0·81, 0·76-0·85) distinguished three hospital admission risk strata: very low (0·3%, 0·2-0·4%) with 1 point or less, normal (1·5%, 1·0-1·9%) with 2 or 3 points, and high (11·8%, 7·3-16·2%) with 4 points or more. INTERPRETATION: Clinical characteristics can distinguish children at very low, normal, and high risk of future hospital admission for respiratory tract infection and could be used to reduce antibiotic prescriptions in primary care for children at very low risk. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR)

Determinants of medication adherence to antihypertensive medications among a Chinese population using Morisky medication adherence scale

&lt;b&gt;Background and objectives&lt;/b&gt; Poor adherence to medications is one of the major public health challenges. Only one-third of the population reported successful control of blood pressure, mostly caused by poor drug adherence. However, there are relatively few reports studying the adherence levels and their associated factors among Chinese patients. This study aimed to study the adherence profiles and the factors associated with antihypertensive drug adherence among Chinese patients.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Methods&lt;/b&gt; A cross-sectional study was conducted in an outpatient clinic located in the New Territories Region of Hong Kong. Adult patients who were currently taking at least one antihypertensive drug were invited to complete a self-administered questionnaire, consisting of basic socio-demographic profile, self-perceived health status, and self-reported medication adherence. The outcome measure was the Morisky Medication Adherence Scale (MMAS-8). Good adherence was defined as MMAS scores greater than 6 points (out of a total score of 8 points).&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Results&lt;/b&gt; From 1114 patients, 725 (65.1%) had good adherence to antihypertensive agents. Binary logistic regression analysis was conducted. Younger age, shorter duration of antihypertensive agents used, job status being employed, and poor or very poor self-perceived health status were negatively associated with drug adherence.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Conclusion&lt;/b&gt; This study reported a high proportion of poor medication adherence among hypertensive subjects. Patients with factors associated with poor adherence should be more closely monitored to optimize their drug taking behavior

Seasonal variations of EPG levels in gastro-intestinal parasitic infection in a southeast asian controlled locale:a statistical analysis

We present a data based statistical study on the effects of seasonal variations in the growth rates of the gastro-intestinal (GI) parasitic infection in livestock. The alluded growth rate is estimated through the variation in the number of eggs per gram (EPG) of faeces in animals. In accordance with earlier studies, our analysis too shows that rainfall is the dominant variable in determining EPG infection rates compared to other macro-parameters like temperature and humidity. Our statistical analysis clearly indicates an oscillatory dependence of EPG levels on rainfall fluctuations. Monsoon recorded the highest infection with a comparative increase of at least 2.5 times compared to the next most infected period (summer). A least square fit of the EPG versus rainfall data indicates an approach towards a super diffusive (i. e. root mean square displacement growing faster than the square root of the elapsed time as obtained for simple diffusion) infection growth pattern regime for low rainfall regimes (technically defined as zeroth level dependence) that gets remarkably augmented for large rainfall zones. Our analysis further indicates that for low fluctuations in temperature (true on the bulk data), EPG level saturates beyond a critical value of the rainfall, a threshold that is expected to indicate the onset of the nonlinear regime. The probability density functions (PDFs) of the EPG data show oscillatory behavior in the large rainfall regime (greater than 500 mm), the frequency of oscillation, once again, being determined by the ambient wetness (rainfall, and humidity). Data recorded over three pilot projects spanning three measures of rainfall and humidity bear testimony to the universality of this statistical argument. © 2013 Chattopadhyay and Bandyopadhyay

Back to thiazide-diuretics for hypertension: reflections after a decade of irrational prescribing

BACKGROUND: Whether newer antihypertensive drugs, such as calcium channel blockers, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors and α blockers are more effective than thiazides and β blockers in preventing coronary disease, has been debated for years. DISCUSSION: Recently several trials addressing this issue have been finalised, and they provide a convincing answer: the newer drugs are no better than the older ones. In the largest trial to date (ALLHAT), thiazide-type diuretic was found to offer advantages over newer drugs. The medical community should now be capable of reaching consensus, and recommend thiazides as the first line therapy for the treatment of hypertension. Prescribing physicians, cardiologists, drug companies and health authorities are all partly responsible for the years of irrational prescribing that we have witnessed. SUMMARY: All stakeholders should now contribute in order to achieve what is clearly in the public's interest: implementing the use of thiazides in clinical practice