6 forecasting production performance

This article considers the application of econometric calculations by the method of statistical dependence equations to analyze the relationships between various factors and the performance indicator. It is noted that the use of econometric calculations should be based on knowledge and understanding of the essence of economic processes and phenomena, the specifics of economic interrelations and the laws of their development. The study presents the methodology by using statistical dependence equations and calculating the factor stability coefficients based on the actual development indicators of the livestock sector in the Akmola region over several years.peer-reviewe

Predicted risks of radiogenic cardiac toxicity in two pediatric patients undergoing photon or proton radiotherapy

BACKGROUND: Hodgkin disease (HD) and medulloblastoma (MB) are common malignancies found in children and young adults, and radiotherapy is part of the standard treatment. It was reported that these patients who received radiation therapy have an increased risk of cardiovascular late effects. We compared the predicted risk of developing radiogenic cardiac toxicity after photon versus proton radiotherapies for a pediatric patient with HD and a pediatric patient with MB. METHODS: In the treatment plans, each patient’s heart was contoured in fine detail, including substructures of the pericardium and myocardium. Risk calculations took into account both therapeutic and stray radiation doses. We calculated the relative risk (RR) of cardiac toxicity using a linear risk model and the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) values using relative seriality and Lyman models. Uncertainty analyses were also performed. RESULTS: The RR values of cardiac toxicity for the HD patient were 7.27 (proton) and 8.37 (photon), respectively; the RR values for the MB patient were 1.28 (proton) and 8.39 (photon), respectively. The predicted NTCP values for the HD patient were 2.17% (proton) and 2.67% (photon) for the myocardium, and were 2.11% (proton) and 1.92% (photon) for the whole heart. The predicted ratios of NTCP values (proton/photon) for the MB patient were much less than unity. Uncertainty analyses revealed that the predicted ratio of risk between proton and photon therapies was sensitive to uncertainties in the NTCP model parameters and the mean radiation weighting factor for neutrons, but was not sensitive to heart structure contours. The qualitative findings of the study were not sensitive to uncertainties in these factors. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that proton and photon radiotherapies confer similar predicted risks of cardiac toxicity for the HD patient in this study, and that proton therapy reduced the predicted risk for the MB patient in this study

Colorectal cancer surveillance in Hodgkin lymphoma survivors at increased risk of therapy-related colorectal cancer: Study design

Background: Second primary malignancies are a major cause of excess morbidity and mortality in cancer survivors. Hodgkin lymphoma survivors who were treated with infradiaphragmatic radiotherapy and/or high-dose procarbazine have an increased risk to develop colorectal cancer. Colonoscopy surveillance plays an important role in colorectal cancer prevention by removal of the precursor lesions (adenomas) and early detection of cancer, resulting in improved survival rates. Therefore, Hodgkin lymphoma survivors treated with infradiaphragmatic radiotherapy and/or high-dose procarbazine could benefit from colonoscopy, or other surveillance modalities, which are expected to reduce colorectal cancer incidence and mortality. Current knowledge on clinicopathological and molecular characteristics of therapy-related colorectal cancer is limited. The pathogenesis of such colorectal cancers might be different from the pathogenesis in the general population and therefore these patients might require a different clinical approach. We designed a study with the primary aim to assess the diagnostic yield of a first surveillance colonoscopy among Hodgkin lymphoma survivors at increased risk of colorectal cancer and to compare these results with different screening modalities in the general population. Secondary aims include assessment of the test characteristics of stool tests and evaluation of burden, acceptance and satisfaction of CRC surveillance through two questionnaires. Methods/Design: This prospective multicenter cohort study will include Hodgkin lymphoma survivors who survived =8years after treatment with infradiaphragmatic radiotherapy and/or procarbazine (planned inclusion of 259 participants). Study procedures will consist of a surveillance colonoscopy with removal of precursor lesions (adenomas) and 6-8 normal colonic tissue biopsies, a fecal immunochemical test and a stool DNA test. All neoplastic lesions encountered will be classified using relevant histomorphological, immunohistochemical and molecular analyses in order to obtain more insight into colorectal carcinogenesis in Hodgkin lymphoma survivors. The Miscan-model will be used for cost-effectiveness analyses. Discussion: Evaluation of the diagnostic performance, patient acceptance and burden of colorectal cancer surveillance is necessary for future implementation of an individualized colorectal cancer surveillance program for Hodgkin lymphoma survivors. In addition, more insight into treatment-induced colorectal carcinogenesis will provide the first step towards prevention and personalized treatment. This information may be extrapolated to other groups of cancer survivors. Trial registration: Registered at the Dutch Trial Registry (NTR): NTR4961

Late cardiac events after childhood cancer: Methodological aspects of the pan-european study pancaresurfup

Background and Aim Childhood cancer survivors are at high risk of long-Termadverse effects of cancer and its treatment, including cardiac events. The pan-European PanCareSurFup study determined the incidence and risk factors for cardiac events among childhood cancer survivors. The aim of this article is to describe the methodology of the cardiac cohort and nested case-control study within PanCareSurFup. Methods Eight data providers in Europe participating in PanCareSurFup identified and validated symptomatic cardiac events in their cohorts of childhood cancer survivors. Data onsymptomatic heart failure, ischemia, pericarditis, valvular disease and arrhythmia were collected and graded according to the Criteria for Adverse Events. Detailed treatment data, data on potential confounders, lifestyle related risk factors and general health problems were collected. Results The PanCareSurFup cardiac cohort consisted of 59,915 5-year childhood cancer survivors with malignancies diagnosed between 1940 and 2009 and classified according to the International Classification of Childhood Cancer 3. Different strategies were used to identify cardiac events such as record linkage to population/ hospital or regional based databases, and patient-And general practitioner-based questionnaires. Conclusion The cardiac study of the European collaborative research project PanCareSurFup will provide the largest cohort of 5-year childhood cancer survivors with systematically ascertained and validated data on symptomatic cardiac events. The result of this study can provide information to minimize the burden of cardiac events in childhood cancer survivors by tailoring the follow-up of childhood cancer survivors at high risk of cardiac adverse events, transferring this knowledge into evidence-based clinical practice guidelines and providing a platformfor future research studies in childhood cancer patients. © 2016 Feijen et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

EXPERIENCE WITH THE USE SYLLABUS IN THE STUDENTS 'INDEPENDENT WORK

The article contains a description of the syllabus and experience of its application in the Nizhny Novgorod State Pedagogical University. K.Minina. Syllabus - the plan of the discipline that teachers develop students' help. In the context of the rising role of independent work of students syllabus will determine the initial and boundary conditions for the promotion of the student in the learning process and give him an opportunity to allocate time, energy and the intensity of their work. The article presents both positive and negative opinions of teachers and students on the basis of testing the implementation of this document in the learning process several experimental groups. Teachers participating in the testing of the implementation in practice of teaching syllabuses, sure is an outline plan of the course written specifically for students, help the latter in the organization of its educational activity. At the same time it should be noted that the implementation of that practice in the syllabus meets some resistance from teachers

CURRENT THE CONCEPT FORMATION OF INFORMATION CULTURE: THE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

The article contains an analysis of pedagogical concepts of personal information culture. Formation of information culture as an independent scientific field and the educational practices associated with the realization of the fundamental role of information in social development; increasing amounts of information; informatization of society, development of information technology, etc.. Exploring the issue of personal information culture, the authors identified a number of concepts of formation of information culture and their comparative analysis on the following criteria: the author's definition of information culture, the author's idea and methodological foundations of the proposed concept, especially its implementation. The author also offered his own concept of methodical system of formation of information culture of students of high schools, based on the idea of continuous formation in the higher school of information culture of students as subjects in the study of information training and vocational training course