The Term Premium and The UK Economy 1980-2007

The term premium is estimated from an empirically coherent open economy VAR model of the UK economy where the model specifically accounts for the mixed nature of the data and cointegration between some variables. Using this framework the estimated negative term premia for 1980-2007 is decomposed into its contributing shocks, where the role of inflation and monetary policy shocks are shown to be dominant in the evolution of the term premium. Projecting into the 2007-2008 crisis period reveals the extent of the shocks to the UK economy, and also shows the similarities in term premia behaviour with those experienced during the 1998 Russian crisis, likely reflecting the flight to cash experienced in both crises

A SVECM Model of the UK Economy and The Term Premium

The term premium is estimated from an empirically coherent open economy VAR model of the UK economy where the model speci?cally accounts for the mixed nature of the data and cointegration between some variables. Using this framework the estimated negative term premia for 1980-2007 is decomposed into its contributing shocks, where the role of in?ation and monetary policy shocks are shown to be dominant in the evolution of the term premium. Projecting into the 2008 crisis period reveals the extent of the shocks to the UK economy, and also shows the similarities in term premia behaviour with those experienced during the 1998 Russian crisis.Consumer Economics: Theory, Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis, Demographic Economics

THE ROLE OF FARM OWNERSHIP IN OFF-FARM WORK PARTICIPATION

A labor supply model is used to examine the relationship between farm ownership and operators' participation in the off-farm labor market for the Northeast region. The results indicate that ownership significantly influences operators' off-farm employment participation. In particular, part-owners significantly allocate labor services to off-farm activities. The results also show that the participation rate among part-owner operators is high partly because the availability of other income sources accelerates the process of acquiring assets to become full-owner operators.Labor and Human Capital,

SEARCH THEORY RISK PREFERENCE AND FARMLAND PRESERVATION

This paper uses search theory to examine the role that risk preference (RP) plays in farmland preservation. Assuming that the distribution of the offer price is fixed, the analysis indicates that risk-averse agents have lower reservation prices than risk-neutral agents, and that agricultural land held by the former exits farming at a faster rate. The results also show that farmland preservation policies which increase reservation prices have a greater capitalization effect if agents are risk-loving, and that such policies, while effectively protecting the interest of land speculators, may be less effective in serving the needs of farming and farm-held open space.Risk and Uncertainty,

The Relationship of Amelogenesis Imperfecta and Nephrocalcinosis Syndrome

Aim: To analyze the prevalence and associated oral findings of nephrocalcinosis in a group of patients affected with amelogenesis imperfecta (AI). The relationship between types of AI and nephrocalcinosis were also evaluated. Design: This study examines patients who were referred to Pediatric Dentistry Department of SDU between the years of 2002-2007 and who, upon clinical and radiological examination, were diagnosed with AI and treated. Patients were offered information about the possibility of nephrocalcinosis syndrome. Patients who agreed to have tests carried out on their renal system were advised to visit the department of nephrology at the clinic. Results: Suspicious radiopacity was observed during renal ultrasonography of a controlled number of patients with hypoplastic type AI. Laboratory results revealed low Ca values (100-300 mg/days) and normal P values (0.4-1.3 g/days). Delayed eruption, gingival hyperplasia, pulp stones and orthodontic problems were also observed in the same patient groups. Conclusion: Although renal findings were observed in a few patients, pediatric dentists are the doctors who are the first to have early contact with this patient group. Because of the potential risk of nephrocalcinosis, early diagnosis may offer good prognosis

Climate change impact assessment on mild and extreme drought events using copulas over Ankara, Turkey

From Springer Nature via Jisc Publications RouterHistory: received 2019-10-26, accepted 2020-05-04, registration 2020-05-04, pub-electronic 2020-05-22, online 2020-05-22, pub-print 2020-08Publication status: PublishedFunder: University of ManchesterAbstract: Climate change, one of the major environmental challenges facing mankind, has caused intermittent droughts in many regions resulting in reduced water resources. This study investigated the impact of climate change on the characteristics (occurrence, duration, and severity) of meteorological drought across Ankara, Turkey. To this end, the observed monthly rainfall series from five meteorology stations scattered across Ankara Province as well as dynamically downscaled outputs of three global climate models that run under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios was used to attain the well-known SPI series during the reference period of 1986–2018 and the future period of 2018–2050, respectively. Analyzing drought features in two time periods generally indicated the higher probability of occurrence of drought in the future period. The results showed that the duration of mild droughts may increase, and extreme droughts will occur with longer durations and larger severities. Moreover, joint return period analysis through different copula functions revealed that the return period of mild droughts will remain the same in the near future, while it declines by 12% over extreme droughts in the near future

Acute mental health presentations before and during the COVID-19 pandemic

Background: A number of community based surveys have identified an increase in psychological symptoms and distress but there has been no examination of symptoms at the more severe end of the mental health spectrum. // Aims: We aimed to analyse numbers and types of psychiatric presentations to inform planning for future demand on mental health services in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. // Method: We analysed electronic data between January and April 2020 for 2534 patients referred to acute psychiatric services, and tested for differences in patient demographics, symptom severity and use of the Mental Health Act 1983 (MHA), before and after lockdown. We used interrupted time-series analyses to compare trends in emergency department and psychiatric presentations until December 2020. // Results: There were 22% fewer psychiatric presentations the first week and 48% fewer emergency department presentations in the first month after lockdown initiated. A higher proportion of patients were detained under the MHA (22.2 v. 16.1%) and Mental Capacity Act 2005 (2.2 v. 1.1%) (χ2(2) = 16.3, P < 0.0001), and they experienced a longer duration of symptoms before seeking help from mental health services (χ2(3) = 18.6, P < 0.0001). A higher proportion of patients presented with psychotic symptoms (23.3 v. 17.0%) or delirium (7.0 v. 3.6%), and fewer had self-harm behaviour (43.8 v. 52.0%, χ2(7) = 28.7, P < 0.0001). A higher proportion were admitted to psychiatric in-patient units (22.2 v. 18.3%) (χ2(6) = 42.8, P < 0.0001) after lockdown. // Conclusions: UK lockdown resulted in fewer psychiatric presentations, but those who presented were more likely to have severe symptoms, be detained under the MHA and be admitted to hospital. Psychiatric services should ensure provision of care for these patients as well as planning for those affected by future COVID-19 waves