Simpson's Paradox, Lord's Paradox, and Suppression Effects are the same phenomenon – the reversal paradox

This article discusses three statistical paradoxes that pervade epidemiological research: Simpson's paradox, Lord's paradox, and suppression. These paradoxes have important implications for the interpretation of evidence from observational studies. This article uses hypothetical scenarios to illustrate how the three paradoxes are different manifestations of one phenomenon – the reversal paradox – depending on whether the outcome and explanatory variables are categorical, continuous or a combination of both; this renders the issues and remedies for any one to be similar for all three. Although the three statistical paradoxes occur in different types of variables, they share the same characteristic: the association between two variables can be reversed, diminished, or enhanced when another variable is statistically controlled for. Understanding the concepts and theory behind these paradoxes provides insights into some controversial or contradictory research findings. These paradoxes show that prior knowledge and underlying causal theory play an important role in the statistical modelling of epidemiological data, where incorrect use of statistical models might produce consistent, replicable, yet erroneous results

Designing an automated clinical decision support system to match clinical practice guidelines for opioid therapy for chronic pain

Abstract Background Opioid prescribing for chronic pain is common and controversial, but recommended clinical practices are followed inconsistently in many clinical settings. Strategies for increasing adherence to clinical practice guideline recommendations are needed to increase effectiveness and reduce negative consequences of opioid prescribing in chronic pain patients. Methods Here we describe the process and outcomes of a project to operationalize the 2003 VA/DOD Clinical Practice Guideline for Opioid Therapy for Chronic Non-Cancer Pain into a computerized decision support system (DSS) to encourage good opioid prescribing practices during primary care visits. We based the DSS on the existing ATHENA-DSS. We used an iterative process of design, testing, and revision of the DSS by a diverse team including guideline authors, medical informatics experts, clinical content experts, and end-users to convert the written clinical practice guideline into a computable algorithm to generate patient-specific recommendations for care based upon existing information in the electronic medical record (EMR), and a set of clinical tools. Results The iterative revision process identified numerous and varied problems with the initially designed system despite diverse expert participation in the design process. The process of operationalizing the guideline identified areas in which the guideline was vague, left decisions to clinical judgment, or required clarification of detail to insure safe clinical implementation. The revisions led to workable solutions to problems, defined the limits of the DSS and its utility in clinical practice, improved integration into clinical workflow, and improved the clarity and accuracy of system recommendations and tools. Conclusions Use of this iterative process led to development of a multifunctional DSS that met the approval of the clinical practice guideline authors, content experts, and clinicians involved in testing. The process and experiences described provide a model for development of other DSSs that translate written guidelines into actionable, real-time clinical recommendations.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78267/1/1748-5908-5-26.xmlhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78267/2/1748-5908-5-26.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78267/3/1748-5908-5-26-S3.TIFFhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78267/4/1748-5908-5-26-S2.TIFFhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78267/5/1748-5908-5-26-S1.TIFFPeer Reviewe

Changes in the use of coronary artery revascularization procedures in the Department of Veterans Affairs, the National Hospital Discharge Survey, and the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, 1991–1999

BACKGROUND: There have been dramatic increases in the number of coronary artery bypass surgeries (CABS) and percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) performed during the last decade. Whether this finding is true for revascularization procedures performed in Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) medical centers is the subject of this paper. METHODS: This study compared the number of revascularization procedures and rates of use in the VA, the National Hospital Discharge Survey, and the Nationwide Inpatient Sample. Included were men who underwent isolated CABS and/or PCI, including stenting, between 1991 and 1999, although data for the Nationwide Inpatient Sample were available only between 1993 and 1997. Age adjusted use rates were calculated with the direct method of standardization. RESULTS: The percent of users of VA healthcare 75 years and older increased from 10% in 1991 to 20% in 1999. In the VA, the number of isolated CABS declined from 6227 in 1991 to 6147 in 1999, whereas age adjusted rates declined from 167.6 per 100,000 in 1991 to 107.9 per 100,000 in 1999. In the 2 national surveys, both the estimated numbers of procedures and use rates increased over time. In all 3 settings, there were increases in both numbers and rate of PCI from 1993, although in the VA, use rates decreased from 191.2 per 100,000 in 1996 to 139.7 per 100,000 in 1999. VA use rates for both CABS and PCI were lower than those in the 2 national surveys. CONCLUSION: Age adjusted rates of CABS and PCI were lower in the VA than in 2 national surveys. Since 1996, there has been a decrease in the rate of use of revascularization procedures in the VA

Priming of adult incision response by early life injury: neonatal microglial inhibition has persistent but sexually dimorphic effects in adult rats

Neonatal hindpaw incision primes developing spinal nociceptive circuitry, resulting in enhanced hyperalgesia following re-injury in adulthood. Spinal microglia contribute to this persistent effect and microglial inhibition at the time of adult re-incision blocks the enhanced hyperalgesia. Here, we pharmacologically inhibited microglial function with systemic minocycline or intrathecal SB203580 at the time of neonatal incision and evaluated sex-dependent differences following adult re-incision. Incision in adult male and female rats induced equivalent hyperalgesia and spinal dorsal horn expression of genes associated with microglial proliferation (Emr1) and transformation to a reactive phenotype (Irf8). In control adults with prior neonatal incision, the enhanced degree and duration of incision-induced hyperalgesia and spinal microglial responses to re-incision were equivalent in males and females. However, microglial inhibition at the time of the neonatal incision revealed sex-dependent effects: the persistent mechanical and thermal hyperalgesia following re-incision in adulthood was prevented in males but unaffected in females. Similarly, re-incision induced Emr1 and Irf8 gene expression was downregulated in males, but not in females following neonatal incision with minocycline. To evaluate the distribution of re-incision hyperalgesia, prior neonatal incision was performed at different body sites. Hyperalgesia was maximal when the same paw was re-incised, and was increased following prior incision at ipsilateral, but not contralateral sites; supporting a segmentally restricted spinal mechanism. These data highlight the contribution of spinal microglial mechanisms to persistent effects of early-life injury in males, and sex-dependent differences in the ability of microglial inhibition to prevent the transition to a persistent pain state spans developmental stages.Significant Statement: Following the same surgery, some patients develop persistent pain. Contributory mechanisms are not fully understood, but early-life experience and sex/gender may influence the transition to chronic pain. Surgery and painful procedural interventions in vulnerable preterm neonates are associated with long-term alterations in somatosensory function and pain that differ in males and females. Surgical injury in neonatal rodents primes the developing nociceptive system and enhances re-injury response in adulthood. Neuroimmune interactions are critical mediators of persistent pain, but sex-dependent differences in spinal neuroglial signaling influence the efficacy of microglial inhibitors following adult injury. Neonatal microglial inhibition has beneficial long-term effects on re-injury response in adult males only, emphasizing the importance of evaluating sex-dependent differences at all ages in pre-clinical studies

In Vivo Time- Resolved Microtomography Reveals the Mechanics of the Blowfly Flight Motor

Dipteran flies are amongst the smallest and most agile of flying animals. Their wings are driven indirectly by large power muscles, which cause cyclical deformations of the thorax that are amplified through the intricate wing hinge. Asymmetric flight manoeuvres are controlled by 13 pairs of steering muscles acting directly on the wing articulations. Collectively the steering muscles account for <3% of total flight muscle mass, raising the question of how they can modulate the vastly greater output of the power muscles during manoeuvres. Here we present the results of a synchrotron-based study performing micrometre-resolution, time-resolved microtomography on the 145 Hz wingbeat of blowflies. These data represent the first four-dimensional visualizations of an organism's internal movements on sub-millisecond and micrometre scales. This technique allows us to visualize and measure the three-dimensional movements of five of the largest steering muscles, and to place these in the context of the deforming thoracic mechanism that the muscles actuate. Our visualizations show that the steering muscles operate through a diverse range of nonlinear mechanisms, revealing several unexpected features that could not have been identified using any other technique. The tendons of some steering muscles buckle on every wingbeat to accommodate high amplitude movements of the wing hinge. Other steering muscles absorb kinetic energy from an oscillating control linkage, which rotates at low wingbeat amplitude but translates at high wingbeat amplitude. Kinetic energy is distributed differently in these two modes of oscillation, which may play a role in asymmetric power management during flight control. Structural flexibility is known to be important to the aerodynamic efficiency of insect wings, and to the function of their indirect power muscles. We show that it is integral also to the operation of the steering muscles, and so to the functional flexibility of the insect flight motor

Birthweight and risk markers for type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease in childhood: the Child Heart and Health Study in England (CHASE).

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Lower birthweight (a marker of fetal undernutrition) is associated with higher risks of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD) and could explain ethnic differences in these diseases. We examined associations between birthweight and risk markers for diabetes and CVD in UK-resident white European, South Asian and black African-Caribbean children. METHODS: In a cross-sectional study of risk markers for diabetes and CVD in 9- to 10-year-old children of different ethnic origins, birthweight was obtained from health records and/or parental recall. Associations between birthweight and risk markers were estimated using multilevel linear regression to account for clustering in children from the same school. RESULTS: Key data were available for 3,744 (66%) singleton study participants. In analyses adjusted for age, sex and ethnicity, birthweight was inversely associated with serum urate and positively associated with systolic BP. After additional height adjustment, lower birthweight (per 100 g) was associated with higher serum urate (0.52%; 95% CI 0.38, 0.66), fasting serum insulin (0.41%; 95% CI 0.08, 0.74), HbA1c (0.04%; 95% CI 0.00, 0.08), plasma glucose (0.06%; 95% CI 0.02, 0.10) and serum triacylglycerol (0.30%; 95% CI 0.09, 0.51) but not with BP or blood cholesterol. Birthweight was lower among children of South Asian (231 g lower; 95% CI 183, 280) and black African-Caribbean origin (81 g lower; 95% CI 30, 132). However, adjustment for birthweight had no effect on ethnic differences in risk markers. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Birthweight was inversely associated with urate and with insulin and glycaemia after adjustment for current height. Lower birthweight does not appear to explain emerging ethnic difference in risk markers for diabetes

Coevolved mutations reveal distinct architectures for two core proteins in the bacterial flagellar motor

Switching of bacterial flagellar rotation is caused by large domain movements of the FliG protein triggered by binding of the signal protein CheY to FliM. FliG and FliM form adjacent multi-subunit arrays within the basal body C-ring. The movements alter the interaction of the FliG C-terminal (FliGC) "torque" helix with the stator complexes. Atomic models based on the Salmonella entrovar C-ring electron microscopy reconstruction have implications for switching, but lack consensus on the relative locations of the FliG armadillo (ARM) domains (amino-terminal (FliGN), middle (FliGM) and FliGC) as well as changes during chemotaxis. The generality of the Salmonella model is challenged by the variation in motor morphology and response between species. We studied coevolved residue mutations to determine the unifying elements of switch architecture. Residue interactions, measured by their coevolution, were formalized as a network, guided by structural data. Our measurements reveal a common design with dedicated switch and motor modules. The FliM middle domain (FliMM) has extensive connectivity most simply explained by conserved intra and inter-subunit contacts. In contrast, FliG has patchy, complex architecture. Conserved structural motifs form interacting nodes in the coevolution network that wire FliMM to the FliGC C-terminal, four-helix motor module (C3-6). FliG C3-6 coevolution is organized around the torque helix, differently from other ARM domains. The nodes form separated, surface-proximal patches that are targeted by deleterious mutations as in other allosteric systems. The dominant node is formed by the EHPQ motif at the FliMMFliGM contact interface and adjacent helix residues at a central location within FliGM. The node interacts with nodes in the N-terminal FliGc α-helix triad (ARM-C) and FliGN. ARM-C, separated from C3-6 by the MFVF motif, has poor intra-network connectivity consistent with its variable orientation revealed by structural data. ARM-C could be the convertor element that provides mechanistic and species diversity.JK was supported by Medical Research Council grant U117581331. SK was supported by seed funds from Lahore University of Managment Sciences (LUMS) and the Molecular Biology Consortium

The Seroprevalence and Seroincidence of Enterovirus71 Infection in Infants and Children in Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam

Enterovirus 71 (EV71)-associated hand, foot and mouth disease has emerged as a serious public health problem in South East Asia over the last decade. To better understand the prevalence of EV71 infection, we determined EV71 seroprevalence and seroincidence amongst healthy infants and children in Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam. In a cohort of 200 newborns, 55% of cord blood samples contained EV71 neutralizing antibodies and these decayed to undetectable levels by 6 months of age in 98% of infants. The EV71 neutralizing antibody seroconversion rate was 5.6% in the first year and 14% in the second year of life. In children 5–15 yrs of age, seroprevalence of EV71 neutralizing antibodies was 84% and in cord blood it was 55%. Taken together, these data suggest EV71 force of infection is high and highlights the need for more research into its epidemiology and pathogenesis in high disease burden countries

The Reform of Employee Compensation in China’s Industrial Enterprises

Although employee compensation reform in Chinese industrial sector has been discussed in the literature, the real changes in compensation system and pay practices have received insufficient attention and warrant further examination. This paper briefly reviews the pre- and post-reform compensation system, and reports the results of a survey of pay practices in the four major types of industrial enterprises in China. The research findings indicate that the type of enterprise ownership has little influence on general compensation practices, adoption of profit-sharing plans, and subsidy and allowance packages. In general, pay is linked more to individual performance and has become an important incentive to Chinese employees. However, differences are found across the enterprise types with regard to performance-related pay. Current pay practices are positively correlated to overall effectiveness of the enterprise

Clinical Implication of Targeting of Cancer Stem Cells

The existence of cancer stem cells (CSCs) is receiving increasing interest particularly due to its potential ability to enter clinical routine. Rapid advances in the CSC field have provided evidence for the development of more reliable anticancer therapies in the future. CSCs typically only constitute a small fraction of the total tumor burden; however, they harbor self-renewal capacity and appear to be relatively resistant to conventional therapies. Recent therapeutic approaches aim to eliminate or differentiate CSCs or to disrupt the niches in which they reside. Better understanding of the biological characteristics of CSCs as well as improved preclinical and clinical trials targeting CSCs may revolutionize the treatment of many cancers. Copyright (c) 2012 S. Karger AG, Base