Watershed rainfall forecasting using neuro-fuzzy networks with the assimilation of multi-sensor information

The complex temporal heterogeneity of rainfall coupled with mountainous physiographic context makes a great challenge in the development of accurate short-term rainfall forecasts. This study aims to explore the effectiveness of multiple rainfall sources (gauge measurement, and radar and satellite products) for assimilation-based multi-sensor precipitation estimates and make multi-step-ahead rainfall forecasts based on the assimilated precipitation. Bias correction procedures for both radar and satellite precipitation products were first built, and the radar and satellite precipitation products were generated through the Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and Segregation Using Multiple Sensors (QPESUMS) and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS), respectively. Next, the synthesized assimilated precipitation was obtained by merging three precipitation sources (gauges, radars and satellites) according to their individual weighting factors optimized by nonlinear search methods. Finally, the multi-step-ahead rainfall forecasting was carried out by using the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The Shihmen Reservoir watershed in northern Taiwan was the study area, where 641 hourly data sets of thirteen historical typhoon events were collected. Results revealed that the bias adjustments in QPESUMS and PERSIANN-CCS products did improve the accuracy of these precipitation products (in particular, 30-60% improvement rates for the QPESUMS, in terms of RMSE), and the adjusted PERSIANN-CCS and QPESUMS individually provided about 10% and 24% contribution accordingly to the assimilated precipitation. As far as rainfall forecasting is concerned, the results demonstrated that the ANFIS fed with the assimilated precipitation provided reliable and stable forecasts with the correlation coefficients higher than 0.85 and 0.72 for one- and two-hour-ahead rainfall forecasting, respectively. The obtained forecasting results are very valuable information for the flood warning in the study watershed during typhoon periods. © 2013 Elsevier B.V

The effect of cigarette price increase on the cigarette consumption in Taiwan: evidence from the National Health Interview Surveys on cigarette consumption

BACKGROUND: This study uses cigarette price elasticity to evaluate the effect of a new excise tax increase on cigarette consumption and to investigate responses from various types of smokers. METHODS: Our sample consisted of current smokers between 17 and 69 years old interviewed during an annual face-to-face survey conducted by Taiwan National Health Research Institutes between 2000 to 2003. We used Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) procedure to estimate double logarithmic function of cigarette demand and cigarette price elasticity. RESULTS: In 2002, after Taiwan had enacted the new tax scheme, cigarette price elasticity in Taiwan was found to be -0.5274. The new tax scheme brought about an average annual 13.27 packs/person (10.5%) reduction in cigarette consumption. Using the cigarette price elasticity estimate from -0.309 in 2003, we calculated that if the Health and Welfare Tax were increased by another NT$ 3 per pack and cigarette producers shifted this increase to the consumers, cigarette consumption would be reduced by 2.47 packs/person (2.2%). The value of the estimated cigarette price elasticity is smaller than one, meaning that the tax will not only reduce cigarette consumption but it will also generate additional tax revenues. Male smokers who had no income or who smoked light cigarettes were found to be more responsive to changes in cigarette price. CONCLUSIONS: An additional tax added to the cost of cigarettes would bring about a reduction in cigarette consumption and increased tax revenues. It would also help reduce incidents smoking-related illnesses. The additional tax revenues generated by the tax increase could be used to offset the current financial deficiency of Taiwan's National Health Insurance program and provide better public services

Metal-insulator transition in vanadium dioxide nanobeams: probing sub-domain properties of strongly correlated materials

Many strongly correlated electronic materials, including high-temperature superconductors, colossal magnetoresistance and metal-insulator-transition (MIT) materials, are inhomogeneous on a microscopic scale as a result of domain structure or compositional variations. An important potential advantage of nanoscale samples is that they exhibit the homogeneous properties, which can differ greatly from those of the bulk. We demonstrate this principle using vanadium dioxide, which has domain structure associated with its dramatic MIT at 68 degrees C. Our studies of single-domain vanadium dioxide nanobeams reveal new aspects of this famous MIT, including supercooling of the metallic phase by 50 degrees C; an activation energy in the insulating phase consistent with the optical gap; and a connection between the transition and the equilibrium carrier density in the insulating phase. Our devices also provide a nanomechanical method of determining the transition temperature, enable measurements on individual metal-insulator interphase walls, and allow general investigations of a phase transition in quasi-one-dimensional geometry.Comment: 9 pages, 3 figures, original submitted in June 200

RUNX2 mutations in Taiwanese patients with cleidocranial dysplasia

Cleidocranial dysplasia (CCD) is an autosomal dominant human skeletal disorder comprising hypoplastic clavicles, wide cranial sutures, supernumerary teeth, short stature, and other skeletal abnormalities. It is known that mutations in the human RUNX2 gene mapped at 6p21 are responsible for CCD. We analyzed the mutation patterns of the RUNX2 gene by direct sequencing in six Taiwanese index cases with typical CCD. One of the patients was a familial case and the others were sporadic cases. Sequencing identified four mutations. Three were caused by single nucleotide substitutions, which created a nonsense (p.R391X), two were missense mutations (p.R190W, p.R225Q), and the forth was a novel mutation (c.1119delC), a one-base deletion. Real time quantitative PCR adapted to determine copy numbers of the promoter, all exons and the 3’UTR region of the RUNX2 gene detected the deletion of a single allele in a sporadic case. The results extend the spectrum of RUNX2 mutations in CCD patients and indicate that complete deletions of the RUNX2 gene should be considered in those CCD patients lacking a point mutation detected by direct sequencing

A polymorphism at codon 31 of gene p21 is not associated with primary open angle glaucoma in Caucasians

BACKGROUND: Primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) is considered to be a neurodegenerative optic neuropathy, in which cell death occurs by apoptosis. p21, is an important protective component of the apoptotic pathway, regulating cellular arrest in the presence of DNA damage. An unstable or altered p21 protein could modify the cellular response to genomic injury and abolish the effect of p21. A previous study on a Chinese cohort suggested that the p21 codon 31 polymorphism may alter the state of apoptosis in glaucomatous optic neuropathy, failing to protect the ganglion cells. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that a p21 codon 31 polymorphism is associated with POAG on a Caucasian cohort. METHODS: 140 POAG patients and a control group of 73 healthy individuals were included in the study. All the subjects were of Caucasian origin. Genomic DNA was amplified by polymerase chain reaction, followed by enzymatic restriction fragment length polymorphism technique (PCR-RFLP). Patients and controls were genotyped for a single nucleotide polymorphism (C/A transversion) in the third base of codon 31 of p21, which leads to a serine (Ser)/arginine (Arg) substitution. RESULTS: The distribution of the genotypes in the POAG patients showed 128 (91.4%) Ser homozygotes, 10 (7.1%) Ser/Arg heterozygotes and 2 (1.5%) Arg homozygotes. In the control cohort, there were 61 (83.6%) Ser homozygotes and 12 (16.4%) Ser/Arg heterozygotes. No Arg homozygotes were present amongst the control group. Both the allelic and genotypic frequencies of the Ser or Arg residues at codon 31 were not significantly different between POAG patients and controls (Fisher's exact test, P = 0.20 for alleles and P = 0.0561 for genotypes). CONCLUSION: This study suggests that the p21 codon 31 polymorphism does not contribute to the risk of POAG in the Caucasian population

Diagnostic Value of EBUS-TBNA for Lung Cancer with Non-Enlarged Lymph Nodes: A Study in a Tuberculosis-Endemic Country

BACKGROUND: In tuberculosis (TB)-endemic areas, contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) and positron emission tomography (PET) findings of lung cancer patients with non-enlarged lymph nodes are frequently discrepant. Endobronchial ultrasound-guided transbronchial aspiration (EBUS-TBNA) enables real-time nodal sampling, and thereby improves nodal diagnosis accuracy. This study aimed to compare the accuracy of nodal diagnosis by using EBUS-TBNA, and PET. METHODS: We studied 43 lung cancer patients with CT-defined non-enlarged mediastinal and hilar lymph nodes and examined 78 lymph nodes using EBUS-TBNA. RESULTS: The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of EBUS-TBNA were 80.6%, 100%, 100%, and 85.7%, respectively. PET had low specificity (18.9%) and a low positive predictive value (44.4%). The diagnostic accuracy of EBUS-TBNA was higher than that of PET (91% vs. 47.4%; p<0.001). Compared to CT-based nodal assessment, PET yielded a positive diagnostic impact in 36.9% nodes, a negative diagnostic impact in 46.2% nodes, and no diagnostic impact in 16.9% nodes. Patients with lymph nodes showing negative PET diagnostic impact had a high incidence of previous pulmonary TB. Multivariate analysis indicated that detection of hilar nodes on PET was an independent predictor of negative diagnostic impact of PET. CONCLUSION: In a TB-endemic area with a condition of CT-defined non-enlarged lymph node, the negative diagnostic impact of PET limits its clinical usefulness for nodal staging; therefore, EBUS-TBNA, which facilitates direct diagnosis, is preferred

Economic gains and health benefits from a new cigarette tax scheme in Taiwan: a simulation using the CGE model

BACKGROUND: This study evaluates the impact of an increase in cigarette tax in Taiwan in terms of the effects it has on the overall economy and the health benefits that it brings. METHODS: The multisector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was used to simulate the impact of reduced cigarette consumption resulting from a new tax scheme on the entire economy gains and on health benefits. RESULTS: The results predict that because of the new tax scheme, there should be a marked reduction in cigarette consumption but a notable increase in health benefits that include saving between 28,125 and 56,250 lives. This could save NT$1.222~2.445 billion (where US$1 = NT$34.6) annually in life-threatening, cigarette-related health insurance expenses which exceeds the projected decrease of NT$1.275 billion in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) because of reduced consumption and therefore tax revenue. CONCLUSION: Overall, the increased cigarette excise tax will be beneficial in terms of both the health of the general public and the economy as a whole

FAK acts as a suppressor of RTK-MAP kinase signalling in Drosophila melanogaster epithelia and human cancer cells

Receptor Tyrosine Kinases (RTKs) and Focal Adhesion Kinase (FAK) regulate multiple signalling pathways, including mitogen-activated protein (MAP) kinase pathway. FAK interacts with several RTKs but little is known about how FAK regulates their downstream signalling. Here we investigated how FAK regulates signalling resulting from the overexpression of the RTKs RET and EGFR. FAK suppressed RTKs signalling in Drosophila melanogaster epithelia by impairing MAPK pathway. This regulation was also observed in MDA-MB-231 human breast cancer cells, suggesting it is a conserved phenomenon in humans. Mechanistically, FAK reduced receptor recycling into the plasma membrane, which resulted in lower MAPK activation. Conversely, increasing the membrane pool of the receptor increased MAPK pathway signalling. FAK is widely considered as a therapeutic target in cancer biology; however, it also has tumour suppressor properties in some contexts. Therefore, the FAK-mediated negative regulation of RTK/MAPK signalling described here may have potential implications in the designing of therapy strategies for RTK-driven tumours

Small but crucial : the novel small heat shock protein Hsp21 mediates stress adaptation and virulence in Candida albicans

Peer reviewedPublisher PD