Adaptation options for wheat in Europe will be limited by increased adverse weather events under climate change

Ways of increasing the production of wheat, the most widely grown cereal crop, will need to be found to meet the increasing demand caused by human population growth in the coming decades. This increase must occur despite the decrease in yield gains now being reported in some regions, increased price volatility and the expected increase in the frequency of adverse weather events that can reduce yields. However, if and how the frequency of adverse weather events will change over Europe, the most important wheat-growing area, has not yet been analysed. Here, we show that the accumulated probability of 11 adverse weather events with the potential to significantly reduce yield will increase markedly across all of Europe. We found that by the end of the century, the exposure of the key European wheat-growing areas, where most wheat production is currently concentrated, may increase more than twofold. However, if we consider the entire arable land area of Europe, a greater than threefold increase in risk was predicted. Therefore, shifting wheat production to new producing regions to reduce the risk might not be possible as the risk of adverse events beyond the key wheat-growing areas increases even more. Furthermore, we found a marked increase in wheat exposure to high temperatures, severe droughts and field inaccessibility compared with other types of adverse events. Our results also showed the limitations of some of the presently debated adaptation options and demonstrated the need for development of region-specific strategies. Other regions of the world could be affected by adverse weather events in the future in a way different from that considered here for Europe. This observation emphasizes the importance of conducting similar analyses for other major wheat regions

Synthesis of a mitochondria-targeted spin trap using a novel Parham-type cyclization

A new cyclic nitrone spin trap, [4-(3′,3′-dibutyl-2′-oxy-3′H-isoindol-5′-yloxy)butyl]triphenylphosphonium bromide (MitoSpin), bearing a lipophilic cation has been prepared by a route that involves a novel Parham-type lithiation–cyclization of an isocyanate to give the isoindolinone core. MitoSpin accumulates in a membrane potential dependent way in energized mitochondria and its oxidation could potentially be used in the study of oxidative stress resulting from reactive oxygen species generated in mitochondria

Long-term variability of drought indices in the Czech Lands and effects of external forcings and large-scale climate variability modes

While a considerable number of records document the temporal variability of droughts for central Europe, the understanding of its underlying causes remains limited. In this contribution, time series of three drought indices (Standardized Precipitation Index – SPI; Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index – SPEI; Palmer Drought Severity Index – PDSI) are analyzed with regard to mid- to long-term drought variability in the Czech Lands and its potential links to external forcings and internal climate variability modes over the 1501–2006 period. Employing instrumental and proxy-based data characterizing the external climate forcings (solar and volcanic activity, greenhouse gases) in parallel with series representing the activity of selected climate variability modes (El Niño–Southern Oscillation – ENSO; Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation – AMO; Pacific Decadal Oscillation – PDO; North Atlantic Oscillation – NAO), regression and wavelet analyses were deployed to identify and quantify the temporal variability patterns of drought indices and similarity between individual signals. Aside from a strong connection to the NAO, temperatures in the AMO and (particularly) PDO regions were disclosed as one of the possible drivers of inter-decadal variability in the Czech drought regime. Colder and wetter episodes were found to coincide with increased volcanic activity, especially in summer, while no clear signature of solar activity was found. In addition to identification of the links themselves, their temporal stability and structure of their shared periodicities were investigated. The oscillations at periods of approximately 60–100 years were found to be potentially relevant in establishing the teleconnections affecting the long-term variability of central European droughts.</p

The kinetic studies of the solvent-promoted aggregation of a steroid-porphyrin derivative

The study of the aggregation of a steroid-functionalised porphyrin derivative shows the formation of chiral suprastuctures. Kinetic studies indicate that the mechanism of the aggregation strongly depends on both the nature of the media and on the concentration of the tetrapyrrolic macrocycle

Cultivating resilience by empirically revealing response diversity

201

Are Adolescent Religious Attendance/Spirituality Associated with Family Characteristics?

The family environment is associated with religiosity and spirituality as well as many aspects of adolescent lives, including their health behaviour. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess family environment associations with adolescent religious attendance (RA), i.e., weekly participation in religious services, and spirituality in a highly secular country. A nationally representative sample (n = 4182, 14.4 +/- 1.1 years, 48.6% boys) of Czech adolescents participated in the 2014 Health Behaviour in School-aged Children cross-sectional study. RA, spirituality and the family environment, i.e., family communication, perceived emotional support, and parental monitoring, were measured. Higher adolescent RA was associated with lower self-reported easiness of communication with mother (odds ratio (OR) = 0.68; 99% confidence interval (99% CI) = 0.47-0.99; p <0.01). In contrast, spiritual respondents were more likely to report both easier communication with their father (OR per standard deviation (SD) change = 1.12, 99% CI 1.02-1.23; p <0.01) and mother (OR per SD change = 1.38 (1.23-1.55); p <0.001) and higher perceived emotional support (OR per SD change = 1.73 (1.55-1.92); p <0.001). Parents of respondents who attended religious services at least once a week, as well as parents of spiritual respondents, were generally more likely to monitor adolescent behaviour. Thus, this study provides information for parents, mental health workers, and pastoral carers. Further research should assess the association of a lower easiness of family communication with dissonances in adolescent-parent religiosity/spirituality and with higher parental monitoring

Extreme droughts and human responses to them: the Czech Lands in the pre-instrumental period

The Czech Lands are particularly rich in documentary sources that help elucidate droughts in the pre-instrumental period (12th–18th centuries), together with descriptions of human responses to them. Although droughts appear less frequently before 1501, the documentary evidence has enabled the creation of a series of seasonal and summer half-year drought indices (Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI; Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI; Z index) for the Czech Lands for the 1501–2017 period. Based on the calculation of return period for series of drought indices, extreme droughts were selected for inclusion herein if all three indices indicated a return period of ≥20 years. For further analysis, only those from the pre-instrumental period (before 1804) were used. The extreme droughts selected are characterized by significantly lower values of drought indices, higher temperatures and lower precipitation totals compared to other years. The sea-level pressure patterns typically associated with extreme droughts include significantly higher pressure over Europe and significantly lower pressure over parts of the Atlantic Ocean. Extreme droughts with a return period ≥ 50 years are described in detail on the basis of Czech documentary evidence. A number of selected extreme droughts are reflected in other central European reconstructions derived from documentary data or tree rings. Impacts on social life and responses to extreme droughts are summarized; analysis of fluctuations in grain prices with respect to drought receives particular attention. Finally, extreme droughts from the pre-instrumental and instrumental periods are discussed.</p

Current perceptions on climate change impacts and adaptation for arable crops in Europe

vokKAT. Yksikön huom.: KA

Future agroclimatic conditions and implications for European grasslands.

Grasslands play a significant role in livestock fodder production and thus, contribute to food security worldwide while providing numerous additional ecosystem services. However, how agroclimatic conditions and adverse weather events relevant for grasslands will change across the European grassland areas has not been examined to date. Using a single reference setup for soil and management over 476 European sites defined by climate stations, we show the probability of eight selected adverse weather events with the potential to significantly affect grassland productivity under climate change and how these events vary regionally across Europe. Changes in these eight key agroclimatic indicators create markedly specific spatial patterns. We found that by 2050, the exposure of the south and west European grasslands to heat and drought may double in comparison with today and that the area with frequent occurrences of heat and drought will expand northwards. However, across Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltic countries to southern Finland and Sweden, the likelihood of these events is likely to decrease. While changing cultivars and management strategies are unavoidable, shifting grassland production to other regions to reduce the risk may not be possible as the risk of adverse events beyond the key grassland-growing areas increases even further. Moreover, we found marked changes in the overall thermal and water regimes across European regions. The effect of adverse weather events in the future could be different in other regions of the world compared to regions in Europe, emphasizing the importance of conducting similar analyses for other major grassland producing regions. To mitigate the impact of climate change, new ways of maintaining grassland productivity need to be developed. These methods include more efficient selection of species mixtures for specific regions, including increased use of legumes and forbs; incorporation of new genetic resources, including the development of hybrid cultivars, such as Festulolium hybrids; and incorporation of state-of-the-art technologies in breeding programs and new grazing management