Dubrovsky, M.

Hlavinka, P.

Kersebaum, C.

Kozyra, J.

Olesen, J.

Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo

Rossi, F.

Seguin, B.

Skejvåg, A.

Trnka, Miroslav

IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science

J Olesen

Miroslav Trnka

C Kersebaum

A Skejvåg

B Seguin

P Peltonen-Sainio

F Rossi

J Kozyra

M Dubrovsky

P Hlavinka

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Current perceptions on climate change impacts and adaptation for arable crops in Europe

Jukuri

This content has been downloaded from IOPscience. Please scroll down to see the full text.Download details:IP Address: 137.108.70.7This content was downloaded on 21/01/2017 at 06:41Please note that terms and conditions apply.Current perceptions on climate change impacts and adaptation for arable crops in EuropeView the table of contents for this issue, or go to the journal homepage for more2009 IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci. 6 372046(http://iopscience.iop.org/1755-1315/6/37/372046)Home Search Collections Journals About Contact us My IOPscienceYou may also be interested in:Climate change impacts on migration: Conflict and cooperation in the MediterraneanHans Günter BrauchClimate change impact and adaptation in Inner MongoliaXingang Dai, Y Xu, G Jia et al.To adapt or not to adapt? 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These changes in climate patterns are expected to greatly affect all components of the European agricultural ecosystems (e.g. crop suitability, yield and production, livestock, etc.). The development in national grain yields for wheat in the period 1961 to 2006 for countries in Europe show that yields in Northern Europe are limited by cold temperatures, whereas yields in Southern Europe are limited by high temperatures and low rainfall. Yields increased considerably during the period 1970 to 1990 in all countries with the highest absolute increases in Western and Central Europe. The yield increases have levelled off considerably during the past 10-20 years. There is in recent years a tendency in many countries to lower yields and increased yield variability. A preliminary analysis shows that the yields in several European countries in recent years correlated well with the mean temperature during the main growing season with observed yield reduction in warmer years. Grain yields in maize have been increasing over the period 1961-2006 in both Central and Southern Europe. The yields increases seem to be continuing in Belgium and Germany, even in recent years, where wheat yield increases have been levelling off. This has also resulting in a steadily increasing grain maize area in these countries. The yield of grain maize in France and Italy have not increased in recent years, and this is most likely due to warmer climate and a higher frequency of droughts, which reduces the water available for irrigation, and since maize is predominantly an irrigated crop in these countries, this has impacted on both maize yields and the area cropped with maize. In order to gather information on perceived risks and foreseen impacts of climate change on agriculture in Europe, we designed a set of qualitative and quantitative questionnaires that were distributed to lead experts in 26 countries. In total, we had 50 responses for specific EZ from 26 countries. The questionnaires provided both country and EZ specific information on the: 1) Main vulnerabilities of crops and cropping systems under present climate; 2) Estimates of climate change impacts on the production of nine selected crops; 3) possible adaptation options as well as 4) adaptation observed so far. In addition, we also focused on the overall awareness and presence of warning and decision support systems. In addition to this survey, a database of high-quality data representing key agricultural regions in COST 734 member countries was collected and analyzed. The key agroclimatic parameters (e.g. length of growing season, probability of frost damage, probability and severity of water deficit during key parts of vegetation season, or number of days suitable for sowing/harvest) were evaluated using the especially designed software package “AgriClim”. The analysis included both the present climate conditions and those expected at 2025 and 2050 using a variety of scenarios. In total 85 agroclimatic stations were evaluated.  The responses in the questionnaires show a surprisingly high proportion of expected negative impacts of climate change on crops and crop production throughout Europe, even in the cool temperate north European countries. We found quite a surprising wide range of adaptation responses already observed by the respondents (Fig. 1). The quantitative questionnaires asked respondents to consider 11 specific adaptation responses that were thought to be applicable through most of the EZs. As Fig. 1 shows, minor to moderate changes in the cultivation timing were observed in all environmental zones during recent decades. The introduction of new crops to the crop rotation has been also reported in the study with increase in the area of silage and grain maize being the most notable changes. Especially in the warmest zones (i.e. the Mediterranean) we can see a tendency of farmers to reduce cultivation of crops that are unsuitable for the changing climate conditions. However, farmers still seem to be more interested in maintaining the present Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions IOP PublishingIOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 6 (2009) 372046 doi:10.1088/1755-1307/6/7/372046c© 2009 IOP Publishing Ltd 1portfolio of crops that is documented by introduction of new and more suitable cultivars of the presently grown crops across all zones. This is even more evident from a reported increase of interest in the cultivars that are able to better cope with drought and other weather extremes. As droughts have been spotted as one of the most pervasive crop growth limitations, there has been a wide spread effort to promote techniques that preserve soil water especially in the most drought prone regions, but also in other zones. The other part of the quantitative analysis, which included sets of 85 representative agroclimatological stations supports to a large degree findings based on the questionnaire survey. It is expected that drought will become one of the dominant factors limiting the agriculture production in southern and eastern Europe. On the other hand, marked increase in the duration of growing season and lower damage caused by extremely low winter temperatures is also expected. The number of days suitable for harvest will increase (with the exception of the north-western region) at most sites during July-September period. However, it will remain relatively low during June. This will likely cause larger operational problems due to a lower number of suitable days (north-western Europe) and/or phenological shift toward periods with less favourable harvest weather conditions (e.g. Central Europe). The results of the analyses uncovered many aspects that were not fully taken into account in the previous impact studies (or were not quantified) and thus constitute a useful base for suggestion practical adaptation policies.    Acknowledgement: The study would not be possible without contribution of COST 734 members and other contributors. Contribution of the Mendel University in Brno was also supported by the research plan No. MSM6215648905 “Biological and technological aspects of sustainability of controlled ecosystems and their adaptability to climate change” and KONTAKT OC187 supporting COST 734 activities in the Czech Republic. Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions IOP PublishingIOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 6 (2009) 372046 doi:10.1088/1755-1307/6/7/3720462

Current perceptions on climate change impacts and adaptation for arable crops in Europe

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