Der Taylor-Zins und die europäische Geldpolitik 1999 - 2009

Die von John Taylor entwickelte und nach ihm benannte Regel ist trotz einiger dargestellter Kritikpunkte ein probates Instrument zur Beschreibung und Beurteilung unterschiedlichster Geldpolitiken. So zeigt sich, dass mit Hilfe der Taylor Regel und dem daraus berechneten Taylor Zins die europäische Geldpolitik für den Zeitraum von 1999 bis 2009 ex post beschrieben werden kann. Es lässt sich zudem vermuten, dass die Europäische Zentralbank bei der Durchführung ihrer Politik einer solchen Regel gefolgt ist. Allerdings wurde ein solches Vorgehen von der Europäischen Zentralbank stets verneinet, so dass der hier berechnete Taylor Zins nur als Beurteilungsmaßstab gesehen werden kann. Vor diesem Hintergrund zeigt sich, dass die europäische Geldpolitik für den Zeitraum 2000 bis 2008 als zu expansiv gesehen werden kann. Einzig zu Beginn einer einheitlichen europäischen Geldpolitik im Jahr 1999 kann von einem neutralen Taylor Zins gesprochen werden. Das bedeutet, hier entspricht der berechnete Zins der tatsächlich durchgeführten Geldpolitik. Auffällig ist zudem das Jahr 2009, hier ergibt sich aus der Berechnung ein negativer Taylor Zins und im Vergleich mit dem EONIA und dem EURIBOR eine zu restriktive Geldpolitik für den Euroraum. Jedoch kann dieses Ergebnis aufgrund der Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise als Ausreißer gesehen werden. Trotz der guten Beschreibung der europäischen Geldpolitik mit Hilfe des Taylor Zinses muss abschließend fest gehalten werden, dass es sich hierbei nur um eine grobe Orientierungsgröße handelt. Daher sollte bei der Interpretation und besonders bei der Ableitung möglicher zinspolitischer Empfehlungen Vorsicht angebracht sein. --

Politökonomische Modellierung eines Abstimmungsprozesses zwischen der Europäischen Zentralbank und den Mitgliedstaaten der Eurozone in Zeiten hoher Staatsverschuldung

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Anmerkungen zur möglichen geldpolitischen Exit-Strategie der EZB

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Brauchen wir eine neue Weltfinanzarchitektur?

Every crisis in the financial sector leads to the question: Do we need new reform in this sector or actually a new architecture? This question is still alive since the end of the last great international financial agreement is more than 36 years ago, namely The Bretton Woods System. In particular against the background of the latest crises the G20 states came to the compromise that a new structural design in the financial sector is needed as fast as possible. The objective of this recent architecture should be to avoid new troubles. But one of the biggest problems on the way to the new financial design is time. It seems very unrealistic to establish such a new system in only a few weeks time, especially against the background that the preparation of the Bretton Woods System took more than three years. This is only one problem if you try to answer the question above and lots of other issues are still appearing. Furthermore this kind of resolutions could be classified as microeconomic approaches. But there are also macroeconomic answers to the question above. Therefore this paper will concentrate on the macroeconomic approaches and tries to shed some light on the discussion about a new financial architecture as well as discuss some other problems which may occur on the way to i

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Two-Season ACTPol Spectra and Parameters

We present the temperature and polarization angular power spectra measured by the Atacama Cosmology Telescope Polarimeter (ACTPol). We analyze night-time data collected during 2013-14 using two detector arrays at 149 GHz, from 548 deg$^2$ of sky on the celestial equator. We use these spectra, and the spectra measured with the MBAC camera on ACT from 2008-10, in combination with Planck and WMAP data to estimate cosmological parameters from the temperature, polarization, and temperature-polarization cross-correlations. We find the new ACTPol data to be consistent with the LCDM model. The ACTPol temperature-polarization cross-spectrum now provides stronger constraints on multiple parameters than the ACTPol temperature spectrum, including the baryon density, the acoustic peak angular scale, and the derived Hubble constant. Adding the new data to planck temperature data tightens the limits on damping tail parameters, for example reducing the joint uncertainty on the number of neutrino species and the primordial helium fraction by 20%.Comment: 23 pages, 25 figure

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: A Measurement of the DR6 CMB Lensing Power Spectrum and its Implications for Structure Growth

We present new measurements of cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing over $9400$ sq. deg. of the sky. These lensing measurements are derived from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 6 (DR6) CMB dataset, which consists of five seasons of ACT CMB temperature and polarization observations. We determine the amplitude of the CMB lensing power spectrum at $2.3\%$ precision ($43\sigma$ significance) using a novel pipeline that minimizes sensitivity to foregrounds and to noise properties. To ensure our results are robust, we analyze an extensive set of null tests, consistency tests, and systematic error estimates and employ a blinded analysis framework. The baseline spectrum is well fit by a lensing amplitude of $A_{\mathrm{lens}}=1.013\pm0.023$ relative to the Planck 2018 CMB power spectra best-fit $\Lambda$CDM model and $A_{\mathrm{lens}}=1.005\pm0.023$ relative to the $\text{ACT DR4} + \text{WMAP}$ best-fit model. From our lensing power spectrum measurement, we derive constraints on the parameter combination $S^{\mathrm{CMBL}}_8 \equiv \sigma_8 \left({\Omega_m}/{0.3}\right)^{0.25}$ of $S^{\mathrm{CMBL}}_8= 0.818\pm0.022$ from ACT DR6 CMB lensing alone and $S^{\mathrm{CMBL}}_8= 0.813\pm0.018$ when combining ACT DR6 and Planck NPIPE CMB lensing power spectra. These results are in excellent agreement with $\Lambda$CDM model constraints from Planck or $\text{ACT DR4} + \text{WMAP}$ CMB power spectrum measurements. Our lensing measurements from redshifts $z\sim0.5$--$5$ are thus fully consistent with $\Lambda$CDM structure growth predictions based on CMB anisotropies probing primarily $z\sim1100$. We find no evidence for a suppression of the amplitude of cosmic structure at low redshiftsComment: 45+21 pages, 50 figures. Prepared for submission to ApJ. Also see companion papers Madhavacheril et al and MacCrann et a

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: High-resolution component-separated maps across one-third of the sky

Observations of the millimeter sky contain valuable information on a number of signals, including the blackbody cosmic microwave background (CMB), Galactic emissions, and the Compton-$y$ distortion due to the thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (tSZ) effect. Extracting new insight into cosmological and astrophysical questions often requires combining multi-wavelength observations to spectrally isolate one component. In this work, we present a new arcminute-resolution Compton-$y$ map, which traces out the line-of-sight-integrated electron pressure, as well as maps of the CMB in intensity and E-mode polarization, across a third of the sky (around 13,000 sq.~deg.). We produce these through a joint analysis of data from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 4 and 6 at frequencies of roughly 93, 148, and 225 GHz, together with data from the \textit{Planck} satellite at frequencies between 30 GHz and 545 GHz. We present detailed verification of an internal linear combination pipeline implemented in a needlet frame that allows us to efficiently suppress Galactic contamination and account for spatial variations in the ACT instrument noise. These maps provide a significant advance, in noise levels and resolution, over the existing \textit{Planck} component-separated maps and will enable a host of science goals including studies of cluster and galaxy astrophysics, inferences of the cosmic velocity field, primordial non-Gaussianity searches, and gravitational lensing reconstruction of the CMB.Comment: The Compton-y map and associated products will be made publicly available upon publication of the paper. The CMB T and E mode maps will be made available when the DR6 maps are made publi

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: DR6 Gravitational Lensing Map and Cosmological Parameters

We present cosmological constraints from a gravitational lensing mass map covering 9400 sq. deg. reconstructed from CMB measurements made by the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) from 2017 to 2021. In combination with BAO measurements (from SDSS and 6dF), we obtain the amplitude of matter fluctuations $\sigma_8 = 0.819 \pm 0.015$ at 1.8% precision, $S_8\equiv\sigma_8({\Omega_{\rm m}}/0.3)^{0.5}=0.840\pm0.028$ and the Hubble constant $H_0= (68.3 \pm 1.1)\, \text{km}\,\text{s}^{-1}\,\text{Mpc}^{-1}$ at 1.6% precision. A joint constraint with CMB lensing measured by the Planck satellite yields even more precise values: $\sigma_8 = 0.812 \pm 0.013$, $S_8\equiv\sigma_8({\Omega_{\rm m}}/0.3)^{0.5}=0.831\pm0.023$ and $H_0= (68.1 \pm 1.0)\, \text{km}\,\text{s}^{-1}\,\text{Mpc}^{-1}$. These measurements agree well with $\Lambda$CDM-model extrapolations from the CMB anisotropies measured by Planck. To compare these constraints to those from the KiDS, DES, and HSC galaxy surveys, we revisit those data sets with a uniform set of assumptions, and find $S_8$ from all three surveys are lower than that from ACT+Planck lensing by varying levels ranging from 1.7-2.1$\sigma$. These results motivate further measurements and comparison, not just between the CMB anisotropies and galaxy lensing, but also between CMB lensing probing $z\sim 0.5-5$ on mostly-linear scales and galaxy lensing at $z\sim 0.5$ on smaller scales. We combine our CMB lensing measurements with CMB anisotropies to constrain extensions of $\Lambda$CDM, limiting the sum of the neutrino masses to $\sum m_{\nu} < 0.12$ eV (95% c.l.), for example. Our results provide independent confirmation that the universe is spatially flat, conforms with general relativity, and is described remarkably well by the $\Lambda$CDM model, while paving a promising path for neutrino physics with gravitational lensing from upcoming ground-based CMB surveys.Comment: 30 pages, 16 figures, prepared for submission to ApJ. Cosmological likelihood data is here: https://lambda.gsfc.nasa.gov/product/act/actadv_prod_table.html ; likelihood software is here: https://github.com/ACTCollaboration/act_dr6_lenslike . Also see companion papers Qu et al and MacCrann et al. Mass maps will be released when papers are publishe