Patient rule induction method for subgroup identification given censored data.

The identification of subgroups in clinical studies is an important aspect of personalized medicine. In order to develop tailored therapeutics, the factors that characterize subgroups with differential prognosis, response to treatment, and incidence of adverse events or toxicities must be elucidated. We present a generalization of a statistical learning algorithm, Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM), that is well suited for this task given a right-censored time-to-event outcome measure. This algorithm works to recursively partition a covariate space into mutually exclusive boxes that can be utilized to define subgroups. Conceptually the algorithm is similar to classification and regression trees but rather than satisfying the goal of minimizing overall prediction error, PRIM works to find the extrema of the response surface. The algorithm\u27s performance in prognostic subgroup identification is demonstrated with simulation studies and a case study using data from the Framingham Heart Study. We find that the algorithm has much utility as it provides a set of easy to interpret rules that define subgroups with maximal (minimal) survival or differential response to an intervention as measured by a survival outcome

Correcting Velocity Dispersions of Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxies for Binary Orbital Motion

We show that the measured velocity dispersions of dwarf spheroidal galaxies from about 4 to 10 km s^(–1) are unlikely to be inflated by more than 30% due to the orbital motion of binary stars and demonstrate that the intrinsic velocity dispersions can be determined to within a few percent accuracy using two-epoch observations with 1-2 yr as the optimal time interval. The crucial observable is the threshold fraction—the fraction of stars that show velocity changes larger than a given threshold between measurements. The threshold fraction is tightly correlated with the dispersion introduced by binaries, independent of the underlying binary fraction and distribution of orbital parameters. We outline a simple procedure to correct the velocity dispersion to within a few percent accuracy by using the threshold fraction and provide fitting functions for this method. We also develop a methodology for constraining properties of binary populations from both single- and two-epoch velocity measurements by including the binary velocity distribution in a Bayesian analysis

Vol. 13, No. 1

Contents: School Reform and Labor Relations: Can Both Go Forward In Chicago?, by James C. Franczek, Patricia M. Trainor Recent Developments, by the Student Editorial Board Further References, compiled by Margaret A. Chaplanhttps://scholarship.kentlaw.iit.edu/iperr/1025/thumbnail.jp

Vol. 13, No. 1

Contents: School Reform and Labor Relations: Can Both Go Forward In Chicago?, by James C. Franczek, Patricia M. Trainor Recent Developments, by the Student Editorial Board Further References, compiled by Margaret A. Chaplanhttps://scholarship.kentlaw.iit.edu/iperr/1025/thumbnail.jp

Book Reviews

Book Review

Beyond Good Intentions: New Legislation on Foreign Aid Effectiveness

The new law and the corresponding OMB and key foreign aid agencies\u27 guidelines require providers to follow best practices in the monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of U.S government (USG) foreign aid.2 A recent study conducted by the U.S. Government Accountability Office across the key USG foreign aid agencies identified a number of areas that needed improvement in the design, implementation, conclusions, and dissemination of foreign assistance evaluations.3 FATAA and the relevant guidelines will require providers to address those areas and focus their reporting requirements on tangible outcomes and the impact of their programming. In recent years, federal agencies have placed an increasing emphasis on demonstrating effectiveness through rigorous evaluations.6 But there are concerns that funding levels have increased, while the efficiency and effectiveness of aid remain opaque and uncertain.7 B. Focus of FATAA In response to these concerns, Congress passed the new FATAA legislation, which will impact all areas of U.S. foreign assistance.8 The main focus of the legislation is a shift toward outcomes and impact of foreign assistance funding.9 Agencies are required not only to measure outputs (i.e. number of kilometers built, malaria nets provided, or anti-corruption trainings held for judges), but also to assess outcomes and impacts (i.e. cost savings for vehicle owners, decreases in the prevalence of malaria, and corruption). Here are several examples: * The U.S. Department of State (DOS) issued an integrated Program Design and Performance Management Toolkit in October 2016;12 revised and updated a version of its program and project design, monitoring, and evaluation policy in November 2017;13 and updated its guidance in 2018.14 Subsequently, DOS issued an updated M&E policy in January 2018 in compliance with the January 2018 OMB Guidelines.15 * The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) revised its Automated Directives System (ADS) Chapter 201 addressing evaluation guidance, planning, and implementation in September 2016 and later in October 2018.16 USAID also developed toolkits to cover its work under FATAA-one for Monitoring, one for Evaluation, and one for Collaborating, Learning, and Adapting.17 * The Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) issued its March 2017 Policy for Monitoring and Evaluation,18 which requires that compact M&E plans identify and describe its evaluation methodologies, key evaluation questions, and data collection strategies. * The U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) issued agency-wide evaluation guidance for security cooperation in January 2017 in its DOD Instruction 5132.14 Assessment, Monitoring, and Evaluation Policy for the Security Cooperation Enterprise.19 III.Current Condition of Foreign Assistance Evaluations\u27 Quality, Cost, and Dissemination A recent study conducted by the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO)20 sheds some light on the current condition of M&E across USG.21 GAO\u27s study provides a baseline assessment of the quality, cost, and dissemination of foreign assistance evaluations when the legislation took effect.22 It focuses on the six agencies providing the largest amount of U.S. foreign assistance: USAID, DOS, MCC, USDA, HHS, and DOD.23 The study found that about three quarters of the 170 evaluations completed in fiscal year 2015 by these agencies and reviewed by GAO generally or partially addressed all of the quality criteria GAO identified for evaluation design, implementation, and conclusions.24 Agencies met some elements of the GAO quality criteria more often than other elements. B.Evaluation Implementation A key element in assessing evaluation implementation is the extent to which target population and sampling, data collection, and data analysis were appropriate for the study questions. Because the target population is the group the researcher would like to make statements in the evaluation, it is important that the group is clearly defined and includes all potential beneficiaries of the program

A NEWLY FORMING COLD FLOW PROTOGALACTIC DISK, A SIGNATURE of COLD ACCRETION from the COSMIC WEB

How galaxies form from, and are fueled by, gas from the intergalactic medium (IGM) remains one of the major unsolved problems in galaxy formation. While the classical Cold Dark Matter paradigm posits galaxies forming from cooling virialized gas, recent theory and numerical simulations have highlighted the importance of cold accretion flows - relatively cool (T ∼ few × 104 K) unshocked gas streaming along filaments into dark matter halos, including hot, massive, high-redshift halos. These flows are thought to deposit gas and angular momentum into the circumgalactic medium resulting in disk- or ring-like structures, eventually coalescing into galaxies forming at filamentary intersections. We earlier reported a bright, Lyα emitting filament near the QSO HS1549+19 at redshift z = 2.843 discovered with the Palomar Cosmic Web Imager. We now report that the bright part of this filament is an enormous (R > 100 kpc) rotating structure of hydrogen gas with a disk-like velocity profile consistent with a 4 × 1012 M o halo. The orbital time of the outer part of the what we term a "protodisk" is comparable to the virialization time and the age of the universe at this redshift. We propose that this protodisk can only have recently formed from cold gas flowing directly from the cosmic we

A Newly Forming Cold Flow Protogalactic Disk, a Signature of Cold Accretion from the Cosmic Web

How galaxies form from, and are fueled by, gas from the intergalactic medium (IGM) remains one of the major unsolved problems in galaxy formation. While the classical Cold Dark Matter paradigm posits galaxies forming from cooling virialized gas, recent theory and numerical simulations have highlighted the importance of cold accretion flows—relatively cool (T ~ few × 104 K) unshocked gas streaming along filaments into dark matter halos, including hot, massive, high-redshift halos. These flows are thought to deposit gas and angular momentum into the circumgalactic medium resulting in disk- or ring-like structures, eventually coalescing into galaxies forming at filamentary intersections. We earlier reported a bright, Lyα emitting filament near the QSO HS1549+19 at redshift z = 2.843 discovered with the Palomar Cosmic Web Imager. We now report that the bright part of this filament is an enormous (R > 100 kpc) rotating structure of hydrogen gas with a disk-like velocity profile consistent with a 4 × 10^(12) M_⊙ halo. The orbital time of the outer part of the what we term a "protodisk" is comparable to the virialization time and the age of the universe at this redshift. We propose that this protodisk can only have recently formed from cold gas flowing directly from the cosmic web