How Far Are We From The Slippery Slope? The Laffer Curve Revisited

The goal of this paper is to examine the shape of the Laffer curve quantitatively in a simple neoclassical growth model calibrated to the US as well as to the EU-15 economy. We show that the US and the EU-15 area are located on the left side of their labor and capital tax Laffer curves, but the EU-15 economy being much closer to the slippery slopes than the US. Our results indicate that since 1975 the EU-15 area has moved considerably closer to the peaks of their Laffer curves. We find that the slope of the Laffer curve in the EU-15 economy is much flatter than in the US which documents a much higher degree of distortions in the EU-15 area. A dynamic scoring analysis shows that more than one half of a labor tax cut and more than four fifth of a capital tax cut are self-financing in the EU-15 economy.Laffer curve, US and EU-15 economy

How far are we from the slippery slope? The Laffer curve revisited

We characterize the Laffer curves for labor taxation and capital income taxation quantitatively for the US, the EU-14 and individual European countries by comparing the balanced growth paths of a neoclassical growth model featuring ”constant Frisch elasticity” (CFE) preferences. We derive properties of CFE preferences. We provide new tax rate data. For benchmark parameters, we find that the US can increase tax revenues by 30% by raising labor taxes and 6% by raising capital income taxes. For the EU-14 we obtain 8% and 1%. Denmark and Sweden are on the wrong side of the Laffer curve for capital income taxation. JEL Classification: E0, E60, H0dynamic scoring, incentives, Laffer curve, US and EU-14 economy

A Semidefinite Hierarchy for Containment of Spectrahedra

A spectrahedron is the positivity region of a linear matrix pencil and thus the feasible set of a semidefinite program. We propose and study a hierarchy of sufficient semidefinite conditions to certify the containment of a spectrahedron in another one. This approach comes from applying a moment relaxation to a suitable polynomial optimization formulation. The hierarchical criterion is stronger than a solitary semidefinite criterion discussed earlier by Helton, Klep, and McCullough as well as by the authors. Moreover, several exactness results for the solitary criterion can be brought forward to the hierarchical approach. The hierarchy also applies to the (equivalent) question of checking whether a map between matrix (sub-)spaces is positive. In this context, the solitary criterion checks whether the map is completely positive, and thus our results provide a hierarchy between positivity and complete positivity.Comment: 24 pages, 2 figures; minor corrections; to appear in SIAM J. Opti

Involuntary unemployment and the business cycle

We propose a monetary model in which the unemployed satisfy the official US definition of unemployment: they are people without jobs who are (i) currently making concrete efforts to find work and (ii) willing and able to work. In addition, our model has the property that people searching for jobs are better off if they find a job than if they do not (i.e., unemployment is ‘involuntary’). We integrate our model of involuntary unemployment into the simple New Keynesian framework with no capital and use the resulting model to discuss the concept of the ‘non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment’. We then integrate the model into a medium sized DSGE model with capital and show that the resulting model does as well as existing models at accounting for the response of standard macroeconomic variables to monetary policy shocks and two technology shocks. In addition, the model does well at accounting for the response of the labor force and unemployment rate to the three shocks. JEL Classification: E2, E3, E5, J2, J6Bayesian estimation, business cycles, DSGE, monetary policy, Unemployment

Essays in macroeconomics

Diese Dissertation besteht aus drei Aufsätzen, welche die Effekte von Geld- und Fiskalpolitiken für die Makroökonomie untersuchen. Der erste Aufsatz analysiert, wie das Verhalten der Inflation nach z.B. geldpolitischen Veränderungen erklärt werden kann. Mankiw und Reis (2002) propagieren klebrige Information als eine Alternative zu Calvo klebrigen Preisen, um drei konventionelle Sichtweisen über die Inflation zu modellieren. Ich verwende ein DSGE Modell mit klebriger Information und vergleiche es mit Calvo klebrigen Preisen mit dynamischer Inflationsindexierung wie in Christiano et al. (2005). Ich zeige, dass beide Modelle in meinem DSGE Rahmen gleich gut geeignet sind, die konventionellen Sichtweisen zu erklären. Der zweite Aufsatz untersucht, wie sich das Verhalten von Haushalten und Firmen in den USA und EU-15 infolge von Steuerveränderungen anpasst. Mittels eines neoklassischen Wachstumsmodells zeigt sich, dass die USA und EU-15 auf der linken Seite der Lohn- und Kapitalsteuer Laffer Kurve liegen. Die EU-15 befindet sich jedoch viel näher an der rutschigen Steigung als die USA. Eine dynamische Scoring-Analyse zeigt, dass Steuersenkungen in der EU-15 stärker selbstfinanzierend sind als in den USA. Es folgt, dass es in der EU-15 grössere Anreize durch Steuersenkungen als in den USA gibt. Der dritte Aufsatz analysiert, ob die Fiskalpolitik Steuerreformen vor deren Implementierung vorankündigen soll, um die Wohlfahrt zu maximieren. Domeij und Klein (2005) zeigen, dass Vorankündigung einer optimalen Steuerreform mit Wohlfahrtskosten verbunden ist. Ich prüfe diese Behauptung unter zusätzlicher Berücksichtigung von öffentlichen Gütern und Kapital nach. Ich zeige, dass nutzenbringende und produktive Staatsausgaben die Wohlfahrtskosten durch Vorankündigungen höchstwahrscheinlich reduzieren. Es zeigt sich weiter, dass kurzfristige Konfiszierung und/oder Subvention von Kapital und Löhnen nicht wichtig für die Wohlfahrsgewinne einer hinreichend vorangekündigten Steuerreform sind.This dissertation consists of three essays which investigate the economic implications of monetary and fiscal policies on the macroeconomy. The first essay focuses on the question: how can we explain the behavior of inflation in response to e.g. monetary policy changes? Mankiw and Reis (2002) propose sticky information as an alternative to Calvo sticky prices to model three conventional views about inflation. We use a fully-fledged DSGE model with sticky information and compare it to Calvo sticky prices, allowing also for dynamic inflation indexation as in Christiano et al. (2005). We find that both models do equally well in our DSGE framework in delivering the conventional views. The second essay analyzes the question: how does the behavior of households and firms in the US compared to the EU-15 adjust if fiscal policy changes taxes? Using a calibrated neoclassical growth model we show that the US and the EU-15 are located on the left side of their labor and capital tax Laffer curves, but the EU-15 being much closer to the slippery slopes than the US. A dynamic scoring analysis shows that tax cuts in the EU-15 are much more self-financing than in the US. We conclude that there are higher incentive effects in the EU-15 compared to the US in response to tax cuts. Finally, the third essay focuses on the question: should fiscal policy pre-announce tax reforms before their implementation from a welfare point of view? Domeij and Klein (2005) show that pre-announcement of an optimal tax reform is costly in terms of welfare. We reexamine their claim by taking two additional features of government spending into account: public goods and public capital. We show that valuable and productive government spending is likely to reduce the welfare costs of preannouncement. As a further contribution, we show that short-run confiscation and/or subsidy of capital and labor income is not important for the welfare gains of pre-announced reforms with sufficiently long pre-announcement duration

Optimal Pre-Announced Tax Reform Revisited

Domeij and Klein (2005) have shown that the welfare gains of an optimal capital and labor income tax reform decline the longer the reform is pre-announced before its implementation. In other words, pre-announcement is costly in terms of welfare. I reexamine their claim by taking two additional features of government spending into account: public goods and public capital. In my baseline optimal reform, I show that valuable and productive government spending is likely to reduce the welfare costs of pre-announcement. Further, the baseline optimal pre-announced reform displays short-run confiscation and/or subsidy of capital and labor income. As a further contribution, I show that these short-run properties are not important for the welfare gains of pre-announced reforms with sufficiently long pre-announcement duration. In particular, a 4 years pre-announced suboptimal reform in which taxes move - without confiscation and subsidy - directly to their endogenous long-run values at the implementation date generates similar welfare gains as the 4 years preannounced baseline optimal reform. The underlying tax structure of both reforms, however, appears to be very different.pre-announced optimal tax reform, public goods, public capital, confiscation, subsidy, welfare

A Study of Recurring Inter-group Conflict in Ethiopia: The Case of Guji and Gedeo, 2018

In April of 2018 violent conflict broke out between the Guji and Gedeo ethnic groups in southern Ethiopia, after 20 years of apparent stability. It is well established that many conflicts recur over time. This study aims to better understand why the Guji and Gedeo ethnic groups got into violent conflict again in 2018, after 20 years of relative stability. The key objectives are to shed light on what the main causes of the conflict are, why the conflict took place at this specific time, and whether it relates to the 1995 and 1998 conflicts between the same two groups. In the field semi-structured interviews were conducted with 37 informants from both groups, with an aim to interview people with different relations to the conflict, such as government officials, aid workers, IDPs and locals. The key findings of this thesis suggest that the issues at the core of the conflict revolve around territory and self-rule, under the ethnic federalism. In conclusion these causes shows large similarities with causes identified by previous researchers in the 1995 and 1998 conflict, indicating that this is a recurring conflict. It appears that these same core issues have resurfaced over an alleged proposal for a new referendum, regarding the administrative border, with certain elite actors as a driving force

Involuntary unemployment and the business cycle

Can a model with limited labor market insurance explain standard macro and labor market data jointly? We construct a monetary model in which: i) the unemployed are worse off than the employed, i.e. unemployment is involuntary and ii) the labor force participation rate varies with the business cycle. To illustrate key features of our model, we start with the simplest possible framework. We then integrate the model into a medium-sized DSGE model and show that the resulting model does as well as existing models at accounting for the response of standard macroeconomic variables to monetary policy shocks and two technology shocks. In addition, the model does well at accounting for the response of the labor force and unemployment rate to these three shocks

Tablets in daycare: What can be learned from international studies

Durch die Allgegenwärtigkeit von Smartphones und Tablets beobachten Kinder die Nutzung dieser Geräte permanent. Aufgrund negativer Einstellungen und Wirkannahmen Erziehender werden Kindern von der Nutzung häufig abgehalten. Die intuitive Bedienbarkeit von Tablets bietet allerdings neue Möglichkeiten. Durch einen zielgerichteten Einsatz können vielfältige Entwicklungschancen genutzt werden. In verschiedenen internationalen Studien wurde zuletzt gezeigt, dass der Einsatz von Tablets in Kindertageseinrichtungen Lern- und Entwicklungschancen bietet. In diesem Artikel geht es darum aufzudecken, unter welchen Bedingungen Tablets entwicklungsfördernd eingesetzt wurden. Die davon abgeleiteten Empfehlungen zum Einsatz von Tablets in deutschen Kindertagesstätten basieren somit nicht auf normativen Überlegungen, sondern werden aus empirischen Studien abgeleitet und tragen zu einem Austausch im Sinne einer Erziehungspartnerschaft bei.With the ubiquity of smartphones and tablets, children are constantly watching the use of these devices. Due to negative attitudes and assumed effects, children are often prevented from using these devices. However, the intuitive usability of tablets offers new possibilities. By a purposeful use, development can be supported. Several international studies have recently shown that the use of tablets in daycare facilities offers learning and development opportunities. This article is about discovering under what conditions tablets were used to promote development. The derived recommendations for the use of tablets in German day-care centres are thus not based on normative considerations, but are derived from empirical studies and contribute to an exchange between professionals and parents in the sense of an educational partnership