Statistical methods for efficient design of community surveys of response to noise: Random coefficients regression models

Research studies of residents' responses to noise consist of interviews with samples of individuals who are drawn from a number of different compact study areas. The statistical techniques developed provide a basis for those sample design decisions. These techniques are suitable for a wide range of sample survey applications. A sample may consist of a random sample of residents selected from a sample of compact study areas, or in a more complex design, of a sample of residents selected from a sample of larger areas (e.g., cities). The techniques may be applied to estimates of the effects on annoyance of noise level, numbers of noise events, the time-of-day of the events, ambient noise levels, or other factors. Methods are provided for determining, in advance, how accurately these effects can be estimated for different sample sizes and study designs. Using a simple cost function, they also provide for optimum allocation of the sample across the stages of the design for estimating these effects. These techniques are developed via a regression model in which the regression coefficients are assumed to be random, with components of variance associated with the various stages of a multi-stage sample design

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei

This paper develops and tests a dynamic optimization model of fishermen’s investment behavior in a limited-entry fishery. Because exit from limited-entry fisheries may be irreversible, the fisherman has an incentive to maintain the right to fish (whether by actually fishing or by purchasing an annual license) even when the fishery is not profitable, in the hope that conditions may improve. This incentive provides at least a partial explanation for excess capacity in fishing fleets, one of the most pressing fisheries management issues in limited-entry (and other) fisheries around the world. To assess the ability of simple financial models to explain observed investment behavior, we develop a two-factor (price and catch) real options model of the decision problem faced by an active fisherman who has the option to exit a fishery irrevocably. The immediate reason for adopting a two-factor model is the hope of achieving greater predictive power, since obviously both price and catch are important to fishermen’s decisions. Another advantage to this approach is that it provides a mechanism by which investment behavior can be linked in a real options framework to exogenous factors that affect price and catch separately. For example, international market forces are likely to affect price while having a negligible effect on a local fish stock, while local fish stock dynamics may affect catch directly but have little influence on prices (assuming the demand for a particular fish is relatively elastic). In a comparison of model predictions about fishermen’s exit decisions to 5059 observed decisions in the California salmon fishery in the 1990s, 65% of the model’s predictions are correct, suggesting this approach may be useful in the analysis of fishing fleet dynamics.Real option investment, Numerical methods, Fisheries

Bayesian Ranking and Selection of Fishing Boat Efficiencies

The steadily accumulating literature on technical efficiency in fisheries attests to the importance of efficiency as an indicator of fleet condition and as an object of management concern. In this paper, we extend previous work by presenting a Bayesian hierarchical approach that yields both efficiency estimates and, as a byproduct of the estimation algorithm, probabilistic rankings of the relative technical efficiencies of fishing boats. The estimation algorithm is based on recent advances in Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods—Gibbs sampling, in particular—which have not been widely used in fisheries economics. We apply the method to a sample of 10,865 boat trips in the US Pacific hake (or whiting) fishery during 1987–2003. We uncover systematic differences between efficiency rankings based on sample mean efficiency estimates and those that exploit the full posterior distributions of boat efficiencies to estimate the probability that a given boat has the highest true mean efficiency.Ranking and selection, hierarchical composed-error model, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Pacific hake fishery, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q2, L5, C1,

Feasibility Study of Economics and Performance of Biomass Power Generation at the Former Farmland Industries Site in Lawrence, Kansas. A Study Prepared in Partnership with the Environmental Protection Agency for the RE-Powering America's Land Initiative: Siting Renewable Energy on Potentially Contaminated Land and Mine Sites

Under the RE-Powering America's Land initiative, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) provided funding to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to support a feasibility study of biomass renewable energy generation at the former Farmland Industries site in Lawrence, Kansas. Feasibility assessment team members conducted a site assessment to gather information integral to this feasibility study. Information such as biomass resources, transmission availability, on-site uses for heat and power, community acceptance, and ground conditions were considered

LONG-TERM FORECASTING OF INTERNATIONAL FOREST PRODUCT MARKETS: THE GFPM MODEL AND IMPLICATIONS FOR EUROPE

The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) was developed to upgrade the FAO methodology for forest products outlook projections. Its purpose is to analyze and project the consumption, production, trade, and prices of forest products. The system deals with 180 individual countries, three classes of roundwood, sawnwood, three kinds of panels, three of pulp, waste paper, and three types of paper and paperboard. The system is built on market equilibrium theory, with imperfect foresight. The short-term equilibrium is modeled by price-endogenous linear programming determining production, consumption, trade, and market-clearing prices in any given year, subject to short-term capacities of production. Year to year changes are represented by equations predicting shifts in demand due to GDP growth, capacity expansion as a function of profitability, and technical change. The forecasts are conditional on exogenous estimates of timber availability in each country. Inertia constraints limit the short-term adjustment of trade in response to market forces. Results of applications of the model to forecast the situation in European countries until 2010 are described.International Relations/Trade,

The great divide between business schools research and business practice

  In their 2005 Harvard Business Review article, Bennis and O’Toole described business schools as being “on the wrong track” as a result of their focus on so-called scientific research. Some commentators argue that business schools have slowly lost their relevance since the end of the 1950s when they undertook a major overhaul in response to the harsh criticism of the Ford and the Carnegie Foundations on the state of theory and research in business administration. Inspired by Khurana’s (2007) book on the development of American business schools, this article describes the debate on the relevance of scientific business research that can be found in the popular business press and the academic literature, and suggests a number of structural and cultural changes to increase the relevance of business research and its impact on practice.  Dans leur article publié en 2005 dans la Harvard Business Review, Bennis et O’Toole décrivaient les écoles de gestion comme étant « sur la mauvaise voie » en raison de l’importance qu’elles accordent à la recherche soi-disant scientifique. Certains observateurs soutiennent que les écoles de gestion ont lentement perdu leur pertinence depuis la fin des années 1950 alors qu’elles ont entrepris d’importants remaniements en réponse aux critiques sévères formulées par les fondations Ford et Carnegie quant à la théorie et à la recherche en administration des affaires. Inspiré par le livre de Khurana (2007) sur le développement des écoles de gestion américaines, cet article dépeint le débat sur la pertinence de la recherche scientifique en gestion qui fait rage dans la presse d’affaires et la littérature académique, et suggère des changements structurels et culturels qui pourraient améliorer la pertinence de la recherche en gestion et ses effets sur la pratique

Developing an Information Literacy-Intensive Forensic Science Course

American Academy of Forensic Sciences 2018 Poster PresentationThe goal of this presentation is to demonstrate a model where forensic science educators can utilize resources at university libraries to promote scientific information literacy and lifelong learning strategies for their forensic science students that they can continue to use in their professional forensic careers. This presentation will impact the forensic science community by highlighting the benefits of forensic science faculty collaborating with subject specialist academic librarians to produce a course filling a gap in the education of future forensic science practitioners. This course facilitates the development of productive search strategies and how different types of scientific research and legal materials are relevant to various forensic science disciplines. This collaboration has demonstrated a need for promoting information literacy, specifically for open-access materials, on forensic science information to these students so that once they graduate they still can acquire the valuable information necessary for their job. As a result of this research, the researchers saw a need to expand this information literacy beyond the classroom and acquired National Institute of Justice (NIJ) funding to allow for the development of these materials as modules to be used by practitioners in crime laboratories to enhance available resources for their use. Forensic science is a multi-faceted field including expertise from a variety of disciplines. A challenge for creating a college course to address skills to develop information literacy competencies and encourage lifelong learning for future practitioners is covering those diverse disciplines. This presentation will detail how librarians at Texas A&M University developed a junior-level forensic science seminar in collaboration with a forensic science faculty member to meet the research needs of students in the forensic sciences program. The learning outcomes of this class include teaching students to describe problem-solving principles, organize typical operational protocols, recognize the scientific basis and application of tools and techniques in forensic science, compare capabilities and limitations, and to summarize and illustrate current scientific, ethical, and legal issues. The presenters will detail the steps taken to create six separate information literacy-intensive classes, including the development of the assignments, and how feedback was provided to the students. These classes included sessions on dissecting scholarly articles and case law, as well as classroom discussions to teach students how to use the structure of research articles and case law to easily evaluate information. By creating this information literacy course, instructors were able to better prepare students for their program’s research intensive courses with the amount of detail required that cannot be covered in a traditional one hour library instruction session. Such skills will be of value when working in forensic science fields and the need arrives for locating similar resources in relation to casework. Additionally, the presentation will address issues raised in class, such as open access, database access, and evaluation of science and legal materials, which helps the students translate current school work to their future careers. To further this concept of information literacy, as previously mentioned, the researchers received NIJ funding to determine how forensic scientist locate and evaluate information and to create educational materials aimed at enhancing these skills and increase awareness of other valuable informational resources. Locating and evaluating high-quality forensic science literature will help forensic scientists engage in quality science practices. Results from this class, which is now in its third year of evaluation, show that students who take this preparatory course are better prepared for conducting meaningful research for their writing-intensive senior-level classes both in their abilities to find relevant materials and how to utilize and cite these materials. Graduating students who go on to graduate or law school have also reported back that taking this course gave them a foundation for which to build on in their advanced studies.Grant funding provided by the National Institute of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, the United States Department of Justice through 2016-R2-CX-0054. Points of view in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position or policies of the United States Department of Justice

Chemical And Physical Characteristics Of Shallow Ground Waters In Northern Michigan Bogs, Swamps, And Fens

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/141864/1/ajb213368.pd