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Using criminal population criminal conviction history information, prediction models are developed that predict three types of criminal recidivism: general recidivism, violent recidivism and sexual recidivism. The research question is whether prediction techniques from modern statistics, data mining and machine learning provide an improvement in predictive performance over classical statistical methods, namely logistic regression and linear discriminant analysis. These models are compared on a large selection of performance measures. Results indicate that classical methods do equally well as or better than their modern counterparts. The predictive performance of the different techniques differs only slightly for general and violent recidivism, while differences are larger for sexual recidivism. For the general and violent recidivism data we present the results of logistic regression and for sexual recdivisim of linear discriminant analysis

Observations on the desiccation and cracking of clay layers

Waterways and lakes in low-lying delta areas require regular dredging for maintenance. Often these sediments are placed on land, where they are allowed to ripen through a combination of drainage, consolidation and evaporation. When cracks develop during desiccation, the physical response of the soil is affected by changes in the overall strength, stiffness and permeability of the material. To better identify how cracks form and propagate, a series of tests was carried out in a controlled laboratory environment on samples of drying clay slurries under different initial and boundary conditions. The outcomes of this study indicate that the results from laboratory small scale models must be carefully analyzed, as they depend on the area and the thickness of the sample. However, common features from the different tests can be identified, which are mostly related to the intrinsic behavior of the material. For instance, the water content at which cracks initiate depends mostly on the drying rate and not only on the initial water content. Typically for the clayey soil investigated, the cracking water content is well above the shrinkage limit and in some instances even above the liquid limit. Cracks can form anywhere a defect is encountered, but it was observed that they propagate in horizontal directions below the soil surface. On the soil surface they tend to intersect with each other perpendicularly, suggesting that they are dominated by a tensile stress regime. Shear stresses also influence the response, but mainly near the boundaries of the samples, due to the interface friction

Modelling desiccation cracking in a homogenous soil clay layer: comparison between different hypotheses on constitutive behaviour

Desiccation cracks are usually thought to start from the surface of an evaporating soil layer, and the available simplified models for crack initiation and propagation are based on this hypothesis. On the contrary, experimental results on a Dutch river clay showed that cracks in an evaporating soil layer may start and propagate below the surface, confirming earlier findings by other researchers. A simple one-dimensional model was set up to analyse the consequences of different hypotheses about the material behaviour on the crack onset in a homogenous soil layer undergoing surface drying. The results of the model show that dependence of the material behaviour on the rate of water content change is a necessary requirement for cracks to initiate below the surface. The conclusion suggests that, to properly understand cracking in an evaporating soil layer, an intrinsic time scale for the mechanical response must be accounted for, among all the other factors which were previously highlighted by other researchers. The key factor to predict crack onset below the surface is the dependence of the drying branch of the water retention curve of the compressible soil on the rate of drying, which would be justified by a rate dependent fabric evolution

Toxocara vitulorum & Fasciola gigantica in cattle and buffalo in northern Laos

LUZIA RAST – PhD THESIS… abstract Toxocara vitulorum & Fasciola gigantica in Cattle and Buffalo in Northern Laos In South-East Asia agricultural production including livestock is predominately produced within mixed smallholder farming systems. These mostly operate at subsistence levels. Cattle and buffalo are typically kept as assets rather than for optimal production purposes. Economic growth and urbanisation in the region continues to lead to increased demand for red meat products. This provides opportunities and pressures for smallholder farmers to increase their livestock outputs and supply this market with consistent and high quality products. Laos is well placed to supply this increasing regional demand but constraints inhibiting optimal production outputs from smallholder farming systems need to be addressed. These constraints include low capacity animal health systems, lack of infrastructure, traditional low input/low output farming methods and endemic livestock diseases. There is limited documentation about disease prevalence in large ruminants and basic production benchmarks such as reproductive, morbidity and mortality rates. Anecdotal reports indicate that Fasciola gigantica and Toxocara vitulorum are endemic in Laos and contribute to substantial production losses. This is despite the availability of relative cheap and simple treatment technology for T.vitulorum and substantial past research investment in the region on both parasites. The research presented in this thesis contributes to knowledge on the prevalence of T.vitulorum and F.gigantica in cattle and buffalo and the impact of these parasitic infections on production in mixed smallholder farming systems in northern Laos, which are typical for many other parts of South-East Asia. It further contributes to defining and documenting basic large ruminant production parameters within these production systems and quantifies the financial impact of T.vitulorum treatment of calves. Importantly this research identified a large gap in knowledge and in the sustained adoption of effective control practices for large ruminant internal parasites and explored pathways and gives recommendations to address this. The thesis presents data from seven separate field studies completed in northern Laos between 2009 and 2012. Two cross-sectional field surveys were conducted and results showed that both T.vitulorum in cattle and buffalo calves and F.gigantica in adult cattle and buffalo had high apparent prevalence (22.6% and 17.2% respectively) and were geographically widespread throughout northern Laos. Results further indicated that both parasites affected cattle and buffalo at similar levels and that no specific clinical signs were associated with either parasite. This was in line with past research on F.gigantica infection but not for T.vitulorum with limited past research and anecdotal reports indicating that Toxocariasis causes diarrhoea and rough coats in calves and especially so in buffalo calves. Slaughterhouse surveys were conducted in five main provincial slaughterhouses in northern Laos. Results showed a prevalence of faecal eggs for F.gigantica (34.1%) plus liver lesions consistent with F.gigantica infection in 71.0% of slaughtered cattle and buffalo providing further evidence of the endemic nature of this parasite and its potential clinical impact across northern Laos. Additional findings of the slaughterhouse surveys were that a large proportion of slaughtered female animals were pregnant (44% cattle, 47% buffalo), 9.8% of slaughtered animals had FMD lesions and meat inspectors were rarely present for the entire slaughter process with no condemnation of any products. Two separate farmer surveys on a sample of farmers that had their large ruminants tested for either T.vitulorum or F.gigantica were conducted using face-to-face semi-structured interviews. Results of the T.vitulorum farmer survey (n=273) showed that there was a relative high rate of awareness (62.3%) about this parasite amongst farmers and that specific knowledge about its epidemiology and potential clinical impact was lacking. Only 2.5% of farmers used pyrantel treatment of calves at the recommended age and dose rate. Results of the farmer survey (n=326) for F.gigantica showed smallholders had very limited knowledge about Fasciolosis in large ruminants despite 20.6% reporting having seen leaf shaped parasites in livers of slaughtered cattle or buffalo in the past. None of the interviewed farmers treated larger ruminants to control liver fluke. Analyses of large ruminant production data found annual calf morbidity and mortality rates of 42.6% (CI 0.38-0.47) and 37.3% (CI 0.33-0.42) respectively; and adult morbidity and mortality rates of 7.4% (CI 0.06-0.09) and 2.8% (CI 0.003-0.05) respectively. Further, results showed low reproductive performance of 0.6 and 0.4 calf per year for cattle and buffalo respectively with first calving ages of 36 months reported for both species. Two separate field treatment trials were conducted. For T.vitulorum calves were treated when they were 90% reduction of faecal egg counts in adult cattle and buffalo four, eight and twelve weeks post treatment compared to untreated animals. In addition there was a trend of increased weight gain in treated buffalo compared to the untreated control group indicating that treatment of Fasciolosis may result in heavier buffalo. Financial analysis using partial budgeting and data from our surveys showed that there was a large net benefit of USD 3.69-14.86 per calf for treatment with pyrantel (12.5 mg/kg) once only between 14-21 days of age compared to no treatment. It was concluded that both T.vitulorum and F.gigantica are endemic in northern Laos and contribute to substantial production losses in this area. Smallholder farmers still keep large ruminants mostly as an asset and there is also a large knowledge gap amongst smallholder producers about internal parasites, their health and production effects and effective control methods. This knowledge gap and the lack of commercial driver contribute to the deficit of widespread adoption of parasite control methods by smallholder farmers despite their availability and known effectiveness. These results suggest, especially for T.vitulorum that if recommended control methods were widely adopted, large ruminant production output from smallholder farming systems could be increased through reduced calf morbidity and mortality rates

People Diagnosed with Myasthenia Gravis have Lower health-related quality of life and Need More Medical and Caregiver Help in Comparison to the General Population:Analysis of Two Observational Studies

Introduction: Myasthenia gravis (MG) is a neuromuscular disease causing extreme muscular fatigue, triggering problems with vision, swallowing, speech, mobility, dexterity, and breathing. This analysis intended to estimate the health-related quality-of-life impact, the medical burden, and the need for caregiver help of people diagnosed with MG. Methods: MyRealWorld-MG (MRW) is an observational study among adults diagnosed with MG in 9 countries. The General Population Norms (POPUP) observational study enrolled representative members of the general population in 8 countries. In both digital studies, respondents entered personal characteristics and provided data on medical conditions, EQ-5D-5L, HUI3, MG-Activities of Daily Living (MG-ADL), sick leave, caregiver help, and medical care utilization. Results: In MRW (n = 1859), 58.4% of respondents had moderate-to-severe MG. Average utility values were lower in MRW versus POPUP (0.739 vs. 0.843 for EQ-5D-5L; 0.493 vs. 0.746 for HUI3), and declined with more severe disease (0.872, 0.707, 0.511 EQ-5D-5L utilities and 0.695, 0.443, 0.168 HUI3 utilities for mild, moderate, and severe MG, respectively). Taking sick leave in the past month was 2.6 times more frequent among people diagnosed with MG compared to the general population (34.4% vs. 13.2%) and four times more people diagnosed with MG reported needing help from a caregiver (34.8% vs. 8.3%). Use of medical care was twice as likely in MRW in comparison with POPUP (51.9% vs. 24.6%). Conclusion: This direct comparison of people diagnosed with MG and the general population using two large international studies revealed significant negative impact of MG. Results were consistent across all outcomes, in all countries.</p

The Burden Patients with Myasthenia Gravis Experience in Terms of Breathing, Fatigue, Sleep, Mental Health, Discomfort and Usual Activities in Comparison to the General Population

Introduction: Myasthenia gravis (MG) is a rare neuromuscular disorder marked by a variable combination of weakness of eye, bulbar, respiratory, axial, and limb muscles. This study compared the experience of people with MG regarding breathing, fatigue, sleep, pain/discomfort, mental health, and usual activities with the general population. Methods: The MyRealWorld-MG digital, multinational study enrolled patients with MG and collected demographics, PROMIS-Dyspnea, PROMIS-Sleep Disturbance, FACIT-Fatigue, EQ-5D-5L, Health Utilities Index (HUI-3), Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), MG-Activities of Daily Living (MG-ADL), and MG-Quality-of-Life (MG-QoL-15r). Comparisons with the general population were based on PROMIS population norms, published literature, or on data from a digital, multinational, observational study which enrolled a representative sample of the general population (POPUP). Results: In MyRealWorld-MG (N = 2074), patients experienced higher intensity, frequency, and duration of PROMIS shortness of breath than a US population (p &lt; 0.0001). Patients with MG had higher PROMIS-Sleep Disturbance scores than POPUP (53.7 vs 50.0, p &lt; 0.0001), and 54.9% of patients had clinically severe FACIT-Fatigue scores vs 6.8% in POPUP (p &lt; 0.0001). Among patients with MG, 69.6% and 18.5% had moderate-to-severe HADS-Anxiety and HADS-Depression compared to 20.3% and 6.9% in POPUP (p &lt; 0.001). Statistically significant and strong associations were found between fatigue, sleep, dyspnea, usual activities, and emotions. All outcomes worsened with more severe disease. Conclusion: A considerable burden was observed in this comparison of breathing, sleep, fatigue, mental health, and usual activities between patients with MG and the general population, using data from two international studies and published population norms. Even mildly affected patients had significantly worse outcomes than the general population.</p

The Dutch Recidivism Monitor

The Dutch Recidivism Monitor is a long-term research project that conducts standardised measurements of recidivism amongst diverse groups of offenders. This project will enable the Ministry of Security and Justice to obtain a clearer overview as to the disposals of penal interventions and the course of criminal careers amongst both juvenile and adult offenders. Measurements as part of the Recidivism Monitor are carried out using the same fixed method. Consequently, the results of the research are mutually comparable. In the case of important groups of offenders, measurements are repeated at specific intervals, so that it is possible to depict the development of recidivism and to examine the subsequent criminal career courses of offenders in these groups

Een oude vraag opnieuw onderzocht: effecten van korte gevangenisstraffen ten opzichte van niet-vrijheidsbenemende straffen op recidive op basis van een instrumentele variabele benadering

Hervorming Sociale RegelgevingCriminal Justice: Legitimacy, accountability, and effectivit

Recidivism report 1997-2007. Trends in the reconviction rate of Dutch offenders

In the field of Dutch criminal law there is a comprehensive policy programme called ‘Working on Reduction of Recidivism’. Various measures are being implemented to help reduce the risk of prosecuted offenders relapsing into criminal behaviour. Some years ago, definite targets were formulated with respect to two offender groups. Between 2002 and 2010, the medium-term recidivism for both juvenile offenders sanctioned by court or PPS, and adult exprisoners will have to be reduced by 10 percentage points (VbbV, 2007). With regard to the latter group, the target was recently enhanced: by 2020, the reconviction rate of ex-prisoners must be reduced by 25 percent (MvJ, 2009). The Recidivism Monitor study constitutes a means of checking whether the realisation of the target figures holds a steady course. Each year, the WODC calculates the reconviction rate of Dutch offenders. Nearly all persons in the Netherlands who came into contact with the Dutch judicial system as a suspect are included in the study. The measurements relate to five populations: adult offenders sanctioned by court or Public Prosecutor’s Service (PPS), juvenile offenders sanctioned by court or PPS, ex-prisoners, former inmates of juvenile detention centres and former offenders placed under an entrustment order. Recently, the relapse among former offenders placed under an entrustment order was reported separately (Bregman & Wartna, 2010). This fact sheet outlines recidivism in the other four offender populations. Specifically, the study relates to juveniles and adults who were sanctioned by court or PPS or released from a penitentiary institution in the 1997-2007 period