Diagnosing ENSO and global warming tropical precipitation shifts using surface relative humidity and temperature

This is the final version of the article. Available from American Meteorological Society via the DOI in this recordLarge uncertainty remains in future projections of tropical precipitation change under global warming. A simplified method for diagnosing tropical precipitation change is tested here on present day El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) precipitation shifts. This method, based on the weak temperature gradient approximation, assumes precipitation is associated with local surface relative humidity (RH) and air temperature (SAT), relative to the tropical mean. Observed and simulated changes in RH and SAT are subsequently used to diagnose changes in precipitation. Present day ENSO precipitation shifts are successfully diagnosed using observations (r = 0:69), and an ensemble of atmosphere-only (0:51 ≤ r ≤ 0:8) and coupled (0:5 ≤ r ≤ 0:87) climate model simulations. RH (r = 0:56) is much more influential than SAT (r = 0:27) in determining ENSO precipitation shifts for observations and climate model simulations over both land and ocean. Using inter-model differences, a significant relationship is demonstrated between method performance over ocean for present day ENSO and projected global warming (r = 0:68). As a caveat, we note that mechanisms leading to ENSO-related precipitation changes are not a direct analogue for global warming-related precipitation changes. The diagnosis method presented here demonstrates plausible mechanisms which relate changes in precipitation, RH and SAT under different climate perturbations. Therefore, uncertainty in future tropical precipitation changes may be linked with uncertainty in future RH and SAT changes.AT was supported by a NERC studentship NE/M009599/1 and CASE funding from the Met Office. FHL was part supported by the UK-China Research and Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund. RC was supported by the Newton Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership Brazil (CSSP Brazil)

The value of precedent : appellate briefs and judicial opinions in the U.S. courts of appeals.

This study of appellate advocacy examines factors that affect judicial treatment of precedents identified in litigant briefs. Although we find some attorney and party characteristics influence whether a court addresses precedent cited by a party, legal resources are not as influential in determining whether the court adopts a party’s use of a precedent. At times, ideological congruence between the circuit panel and the litigant can increase the likelihood that the court’s opinion will use a precedent in the same way as presented by the litigants. There is also some support for the importance of attorney experience. Even when their clients ultimately win the case, attorneys with no experience before the circuit are less likely to see the court use litigant-cited precedents in a similar way to the party brief. Even when their clients lose, there is some support to show that attorneys with more experience are more likely to see the court’s opinion address the precedents the attorneys have raised positively. This suggests that attorney experience has some influence in shaping legal policy, regardless of whether the litigant wins or loses

The impact of a uniform ocean warming on the West African monsoon

This is the final version. Available on open access from Springer via the DOI in this recordAvailability of data and materials: CMIP6 data was accessed from the ESGF CEDA data node https://esgf-index1.ceda.ac.uk/search/cmip6-ceda/. Data from the HadGEM2-A spin-up experiments are archived at the Met Office and available from the authors on request for research purposes.Projections of West African Monsoon (WAM) precipitation are uncertain. To address this, an improved understanding of the mechanisms driving WAM precipitation change is needed to shed light on inter-model differences and aid model development. The full forcing of increased CO2 can be decomposed into different components such as the impact of ocean warming, or the direct radiative effect of increased CO2. This paper investigates such a decomposition, analysing the effect of a uniform 4K ocean warming whilst keeping atmospheric CO2 concentrations constant. The analysis highlights several mechanisms acting to decrease WAM precipitation over a range of timescales, from days after the abrupt ocean warming, to the long-term equilibrium response. The initial decrease in WAM precipitation is caused by warming and enhanced convection over the ocean, stabilising the atmosphere inland and disrupting the monsoon inflow at low levels. Later in the response (after about 5 days), the WAM precipitation is reduced through a strengthening of the shallow circulation over West Africa, associated with changes in the large-scale temperature gradients and a local warming of the atmosphere related to a soil moisture feedback mechanism over the Sahel. Finally, from around 20 days after the SST increase, the WAM precipitation is also reduced through changes in specific humidity gradients that lead to increased potency of dry air advection into the monsoon rainband. The analysis concludes by demonstrating that the processes affecting precipitation in the early stages of the response are also relevant to the long-term equilibrium response.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)UK-China Research & Innovation Partnership Fund

Supercruiser Arrow HS-8

Technology in aeronautics has advanced dramatically since the last design of a production High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) aircraft. Newly projected requirements call for a new High Speed Civil Transport aircraft with a range of approximately 550 nm and at least 275 passenger capacity. The aircraft must be affordable and marketable. The new HSCT must be able to sustain long-duration flights and to absorb the abuse of daily operation. The new aircraft must be safe and simple to fly and require a minimum amount of maintenance. This aircraft must meet FAA certification criteria of FAR Part 25 and environmental constraints. Several design configurations were examined and two designs were selected for further investigation. The first design employs the delta planform wings and conventional empennage layout. The other design uses a swing wing layout and conventional empennage. Other engineering challenges, including materials and propulsion are also discussed. At a cruise flight speed between Mach 2.2 and Mach 3.0, no current generation of materials can endure the thermal loading of supersonic flight and satisfy the stringent weight requirements. A new generation of lightweight composite materials must be developed for the HSCT. With the enforcement of stage 3 noise restrictions, these new engines must be able to propel the aircraft and satisfy the noise limit. The engine with the most promise is the variable cycle engine. At low subsonic speeds the engine operates like a turbofan engine, providing the most efficient performance. At higher speeds the variable cycle engine operates as a turbojet power plant. The two large engine manufacturers, General Electric and Pratt & Whitney in the United States, are combining forces to make the variable cycle engine a reality

Ocean‐Only FAFMIP: Understanding Regional Patterns of Ocean Heat Content and Dynamic Sea Level Change

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Newly Developed and Validated Eosinophilic Esophagitis Histology Scoring System and Evidence that it Outperforms Peak Eosinophil Count for Disease Diagnosis and Monitoring

Eosinophilic esophagitis is diagnosed by symptoms, and at least 15 intraepithelial eosinophils per high power field in an esophageal biopsy. Other pathologic features have not been emphasized. We developed a histology scoring system for esophageal biopsies that evaluates eight features: eosinophil density, basal zone hyperplasia, eosinophil abscesses, eosinophil surface layering, dilated intercellular spaces, surface epithelial alteration, dyskeratotic epithelial cells and lamina propria fibrosis. Severity (grade) and extent (stage) of abnormalities were scored using a 4 point scale (0 normal; 3 maximum change). Reliability was demonstrated by strong to moderate agreement among 3 pathologists who scored biopsies independently (p≤0.008). Several features were often abnormal in 201 biopsies (101 distal, 100 proximal) from 104 subjects (34 untreated, 167 treated). Median grade and stage scores were significantly higher in untreated compared to treated subjects (p≤0.0062). Grade scores for features independent of eosinophil counts were significantly higher in biopsies from untreated compared to treated subjects (basal zone hyperplasia p≤0.024 and dilated intercellular spaces p≤0.005), and were strongly correlated (r-square\u3e0.67). Principal components analysis identified 3 principal components that explained 78.2% of the variation in the features. In logistic regression models, 2 principal components more closely associated with treatment status than log distal peak eosinophil count (r-square 17, area under the curve 77.8 vs r-square 9, area under the curve 69.8). In summary, the eosinophilic esophagitis histology scoring system provides a method to objectively assess histologic changes in the esophagus beyond eosinophil number. Importantly, it discriminates treated from untreated patients, uses features commonly found in such biopsies, and is utilizable by pathologists after minimal training. These data provide rationales and a method to evaluate esophageal biopsies for features in addition to peak eosinophil count

Equation of State of Water in the Megabar Range

We present some preliminary results on the equation of state (EOS) of water in a pressure regime of astrophysical interest. In the experiments, structured targets made of an aluminum step followed by a water layer are irradiated by the laser at an intensity up to 4·1014 W·cm−2 to generate a shock wave. Velocities are measured in the two materials using a VISAR interferometric diagnostic for water, and a streak camera to measure target self-emission for Al. EOS points for water are obtained with the impedance mismatch method using Al EOS as a reference. Water reflectivity was also measured

Implementation of a Renal Precision Medicine Program: Clinician Attitudes and Acceptance

A precision health initiative was implemented across a multi-hospital health system, wherein a panel of genetic variants was tested and utilized in the clinical care of chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. Pharmacogenomic predictors of antihypertensive response and genomic predictors of CKD were provided to clinicians caring for nephrology patients. To assess clinician knowledge, attitudes, and willingness to act on genetic testing results, a Likert-scale survey was sent to and self-administered by these nephrology providers (N = 76). Most respondents agreed that utilizing pharmacogenomic-guided antihypertensive prescribing is valuable (4.0 ± 0.7 on a scale of 1 to 5, where 5 indicates strong agreement). However, the respondents also expressed reluctance to use genetic testing for CKD risk stratification due to a perceived lack of supporting evidence (3.2 ± 0.9). Exploratory sub-group analyses associated this reluctance with negative responses to both knowledge and attitude discipline questions, thus suggesting reduced exposure to and comfort with genetic information. Given the evolving nature of genomic implementation in clinical care, further education is warranted to help overcome these perception barriers