Science through Machine Learning: Quantification of Poststorm Thermospheric Cooling

Machine learning (ML) is often viewed as a black-box regression technique that is unable to provide considerable scientific insight. ML models are universal function approximators and - if used correctly - can provide scientific information related to the ground-truth dataset used for fitting. A benefit to ML over parametric models is that there are no predefined basis functions limiting the phenomena that can be modeled. In this work, we develop ML models on three datasets: the Space Environment Technologies (SET) High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) density database, a spatiotemporally matched dataset of outputs from the Jacchia-Bowman 2008 Empirical Thermospheric Density Model (JB2008), and an accelerometer-derived density dataset from CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP). These ML models are compared to the Naval Research Laboratory Mass Spectrometer and Incoherent Scatter radar (NRLMSIS 2.0) model to study the presence of post-storm cooling in the middle-thermosphere. We find that both NRLMSIS 2.0 and JB2008-ML do not account for post-storm cooling and consequently perform poorly in periods following strong geomagnetic storms (e.g. the 2003 Halloween storms). Conversely, HASDM-ML and CHAMP-ML do show evidence of post-storm cooling indicating that this phenomenon is present in the original datasets. Results show that density reductions up to 40% can occur 1--3 days post-storm depending on location and the strength of the storm

Which solar EUV indices are best for reconstructing the solar EUV irradiance ?

The solar EUV irradiance is of key importance for space weather. Most of the time, however, surrogate quantities such as EUV indices have to be used by lack of continuous and spectrally resolved measurements of the irradiance. The ability of such proxies to reproduce the irradiance from different solar atmospheric layers is usually investigated by comparing patterns of temporal correlations. We consider instead a statistical approach. The TIMED/SEE experiment, which has been continuously operating since Feb. 2002, allows for the first time to compare in a statistical manner the EUV spectral irradiance to five EUV proxies: the sunspot number, the f10.7, Ca K, and Mg II indices, and the He I equivalent width. Using multivariate statistical methods such as multidimensional scaling, we represent in a single graph the measure of relatedness between these indices and various strong spectral lines. The ability of each index to reproduce the EUV irradiance is discussed; it is shown why so few lines can be effectively reconstructed from them. All indices exhibit comparable performance, apart from the sunspot number, which is the least appropriate. No single index can satisfactorily describe both the level of variability on time scales beyond 27 days, and relative changes of irradiance on shorter time scales.Comment: 6 figures, to appear in Adv. Space. Re

Detecting Current Noise with a Josephson Junction in the Macroscopic Quantum Tunneling Regime

We discuss the use of a hysteretic Josephson junction to detect current fluctuations with frequencies below the plasma frequency of the junction. These adiabatic fluctuations are probed by switching measurements observing the noise-affected average rate of macroscopic quantum tunneling of the detector junction out of its zero-voltage state. In a proposed experimental scheme, frequencies of the noise are limited by an on-chip filtering circuit. The third cumulant of current fluctuations at the detector is related to an asymmetry of the switching rates.Comment: 26 pages, 10 figures. To appear in Journal of Low Temperature Physics in the proceedings of the ULTI conference organized in Lammi, Finland (2006

Measurement of finite-frequency current statistics in a single-electron transistor

Electron transport in nano-scale structures is strongly influenced by the Coulomb interaction which gives rise to correlations in the stream of charges and leaves clear fingerprints in the fluctuations of the electrical current. A complete understanding of the underlying physical processes requires measurements of the electrical fluctuations on all time and frequency scales, but experiments have so far been restricted to fixed frequency ranges as broadband detection of current fluctuations is an inherently difficult experimental procedure. Here we demonstrate that the electrical fluctuations in a single electron transistor (SET) can be accurately measured on all relevant frequencies using a nearby quantum point contact for on-chip real-time detection of the current pulses in the SET. We have directly measured the frequency-dependent current statistics and hereby fully characterized the fundamental tunneling processes in the SET. Our experiment paves the way for future investigations of interaction and coherence induced correlation effects in quantum transport.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, published in Nature Communications (open access

Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): Overview of Science Objectives, Instrument Design, Data Products, and Model Developments

The highly variable solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation is the major energy input to the Earth’s upper atmosphere, strongly impacting the geospace environment, affecting satellite operations, communications, and navigation. The Extreme ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE) onboard the NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) will measure the solar EUV irradiance from 0.1 to 105 nm with unprecedented spectral resolution (0.1 nm), temporal cadence (ten seconds), and accuracy (20%). EVE includes several irradiance instruments: The Multiple EUV Grating Spectrographs (MEGS)-A is a grazing-incidence spectrograph that measures the solar EUV irradiance in the 5 to 37 nm range with 0.1-nm resolution, and the MEGS-B is a normal-incidence, dual-pass spectrograph that measures the solar EUV irradiance in the 35 to 105 nm range with 0.1-nm resolution. To provide MEGS in-flight calibration, the EUV SpectroPhotometer (ESP) measures the solar EUV irradiance in broadbands between 0.1 and 39 nm, and a MEGS-Photometer measures the Sun’s bright hydrogen emission at 121.6 nm. The EVE data products include a near real-time space-weather product (Level 0C), which provides the solar EUV irradiance in specific bands and also spectra in 0.1-nm intervals with a cadence of one minute and with a time delay of less than 15 minutes. The EVE higher-level products are Level 2 with the solar EUV irradiance at higher time cadence (0.25 seconds for photometers and ten seconds for spectrographs) and Level 3 with averages of the solar irradiance over a day and over each one-hour period. The EVE team also plans to advance existing models of solar EUV irradiance and to operationally use the EVE measurements in models of Earth’s ionosphere and thermosphere. Improved understanding of the evolution of solar flares and extending the various models to incorporate solar flare events are high priorities for the EVE team.United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (contract NAS5-02140

Extreme Ultra-Violet Spectroscopy of the Lower Solar Atmosphere During Solar Flares

The extreme ultraviolet portion of the solar spectrum contains a wealth of diagnostic tools for probing the lower solar atmosphere in response to an injection of energy, particularly during the impulsive phase of solar flares. These include temperature and density sensitive line ratios, Doppler shifted emission lines and nonthermal broadening, abundance measurements, differential emission measure profiles, and continuum temperatures and energetics, among others. In this paper I shall review some of the advances made in recent years using these techniques, focusing primarily on studies that have utilized data from Hinode/EIS and SDO/EVE, while also providing some historical background and a summary of future spectroscopic instrumentation.Comment: 34 pages, 8 figures. Submitted to Solar Physics as part of the Topical Issue on Solar and Stellar Flare

Neutral H density at the termination shock: a consolidation of recent results

We discuss a consolidation of determinations of the density of neutral interstellar H at the nose of the termination shock carried out with the use of various data sets, techniques, and modeling approaches. In particular, we focus on the determination of this density based on observations of H pickup ions on Ulysses during its aphelion passage through the ecliptic plane. We discuss in greater detail a novel method of determination of the density from these measurements and review the results from its application to actual data. The H density at TS derived from this analysis is equal to 0.087 \pm 0.022 cm-3, and when all relevant determinations are taken into account, the consolidated density is obtained at 0.09 \pm 0.022 cm-3. The density of H in CHISM based on literature values of filtration factor is then calculated at 0.16 \pm 0.04 cm-3.Comment: Submitted to Space Science Review

Interpretation of Pioneer 10 Lyman alpha based on heliospheric interface models: methodology and first results

The Very Local Interstellar Medium (VLISM) neutral hydrogen and proton densities are still not precisely known even after three decades of deep space research and the existence of the EUV and other diagnostic data obtained by Pioneer 10/11, Voyager 1/2 and other spacecraft. The EUV data interpretation, in particular, has suffered because of inadequate neutral hydrogen-plasma models, difficulty of calculating the multiply scattered Lyman alpha glow and calibration uncertainties. Recently, all these difficulties have been significantly reduced. In the present work we have used the latest state of the art supersonic VLISM neutral hydrogen-plasma and Monte Carlo radiative transfer model, incorporating neutral density, temperature, and velocity variations, actual solar line shape, realistic redistribution function, Doppler and aberration effects. This work presents the methodology of the radiative transfer code and the first results of the comparison of the model predictions with the Pioneer 10 data. Monte Carlo radiative transfer calculations were carried out for five neutral hydrogen- plasma models and compared with Pioneer data. The first results are quite encouraging. We found that the VLISM ionization ratio is between 0.2 and 0.5 and that the VLISM neutral hydrogen density is less than 0.25 cm^{-3}. The present calculation suggests that the Pioneer 10 photometer derived intensities (Rayleighs) need to be increased by a factor of 2. If this model- derived calibration is used then the difference between Pioneer 10 and Voyager 2 intensity values is reduced to about 2.2. The model, neutral hydrogen density = 0.15 cm${-3} and proton density = 0.07 cm^{-3}, is found to best fit the Pioneer 10 data.Comment: accepted in JG

Model Evaluation Guidelines for Geomagnetic Index Predictions

Geomagnetic indices are convenient quantities that distill the complicated physics of some region or aspect of near‐Earth space into a single parameter. Most of the best‐known indices are calculated from ground‐based magnetometer data sets, such as Dst, SYM‐H, Kp, AE, AL, and PC. Many models have been created that predict the values of these indices, often using solar wind measurements upstream from Earth as the input variables to the calculation. This document reviews the current state of models that predict geomagnetic indices and the methods used to assess their ability to reproduce the target index time series. These existing methods are synthesized into a baseline collection of metrics for benchmarking a new or updated geomagnetic index prediction model. These methods fall into two categories: (1) fit performance metrics such as root‐mean‐square error and mean absolute error that are applied to a time series comparison of model output and observations and (2) event detection performance metrics such as Heidke Skill Score and probability of detection that are derived from a contingency table that compares model and observation values exceeding (or not) a threshold value. A few examples of codes being used with this set of metrics are presented, and other aspects of metrics assessment best practices, limitations, and uncertainties are discussed, including several caveats to consider when using geomagnetic indices.Plain Language SummaryOne aspect of space weather is a magnetic signature across the surface of the Earth. The creation of this signal involves nonlinear interactions of electromagnetic forces on charged particles and can therefore be difficult to predict. The perturbations that space storms and other activity causes in some observation sets, however, are fairly regular in their pattern. Some of these measurements have been compiled together into a single value, a geomagnetic index. Several such indices exist, providing a global estimate of the activity in different parts of geospace. Models have been developed to predict the time series of these indices, and various statistical methods are used to assess their performance at reproducing the original index. Existing studies of geomagnetic indices, however, use different approaches to quantify the performance of the model. This document defines a standardized set of statistical analyses as a baseline set of comparison tools that are recommended to assess geomagnetic index prediction models. It also discusses best practices, limitations, uncertainties, and caveats to consider when conducting a model assessment.Key PointsWe review existing practices for assessing geomagnetic index prediction models and recommend a “standard set” of metricsAlong with fit performance metrics that use all data‐model pairs in their formulas, event detection performance metrics are recommendedOther aspects of metrics assessment best practices, limitations, uncertainties, and geomagnetic index caveats are also discussedPeer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/147764/1/swe20790_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/147764/2/swe20790.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/147764/3/swe20790-sup-0001-2018SW002067-SI.pd