A closer look at the information provision rationale: Civil society participation in states' delegations at the UNFCCC

The previous literature contends inter alia that states may welcome the participation of civil society groups in global environmental governance due to their provision of information. The following research takes this argument as a starting point for a closer examination of its validity within the international climate change regime (UNFCCC) and, specifically, with regard to civil society involvement in states' negotiation delegations. First, the author theoretically unfolds the information provision argument from a demand, i.e., state perspective along the bureaucratic quality of a country, the salience of a negotiation issue, and regime type. From this foundation, secondly, new data on the composition of states' negotiation delegations in the UNFCCC is analyzed. The results seem to indicate that the information provision mechanism is unlikely to apply in the context under study. The paper, thus, concludes by providing alternative explanation

A model for predicting future EU enlargements - and why most candidate states could be waiting some time

The last state to join the European Union was Croatia in 2013, but when can current candidate states expect to secure their accession to the EU? Tina Freyburg and Tobias Böhmelt present results from a new study of the capacity of candidate states to meet accession criteria. They find that only one of the current candidate states (Macedonia) would be projected to meet the criteria by 2023, with Serbia and Turkey likely to succeed by the mid-2030s, and Albania and Bosnia-Herzegovina unlikely to meet the criteria before 2050

How mediator leadership transitions influence mediation effectiveness

Little is known about how transitions in the government of mediators affect conflict dynamics and resolution. To address this shortcoming, we study executive turnovers of mediators during ongoing interventions in civil war. Mediation effectiveness is largely driven by (trustworthy) information provision and sharing. Changes in mediators’ leaderships have the potential to undermine this, lowering mediation performance. Using data on civil conflicts in 1946–2017, we find robust support for this argument. This research sheds light on a previously neglected factor in conflict resolution that is of particular interest to practitioners and policymakers

Environmental-agreement design and political ideology in democracies

Does the political ideology of negotiating parties influence the design of international environmental agreements? This article distinguishes between leftist and rightist executives in democracies to develop a twofold argument. First, left-leaning democratic governments tend to be generally more environmental-friendly, which implies that they should favor designs that are more conducive to effective institutions. Second, leftist democratic executives are commonly less concerned about sovereignty costs. Both mechanisms suggest that environmental treaties likely comprise “legalized,” i.e., hard-law elements when left-wing democracies negotiate their design. The empirical implication of the theory is tested with quantitative data on international environmental agreements since 1975. The findings report an association between leftist ideology in democracies and agreement legalization, although this is driven by aspects of sovereignty delegation. This article contributes to the literatures on environmental institutions, international cooperation more generally, as well as party politics

Exploring the Effects of Party Policy Diffusion on Parties’ Election Strategies. IHS Political Science Series Working Paper No. 144, March 2017

Previous research suggests that political parties respond to left-right policy positions of successful foreign political parties that have recently governed (“foreign leaders”). We evaluate whether this is an effective electoral strategy: do political parties gain votes in and office after elections when they respond to successful foreign parties? We argue that following foreign leaders allows parties to better identify the position of their own (domestic) median voter position, which increases their electoral support. The analysis is based on spatial-econometric and instrumental-variable model specifications of parties’ vote shares and whether they obtained office. The results suggest that following foreign leaders is a beneficial election strategy in national elections. The findings have implications for our understanding of political representation, parties’ election strategies, and for policy diffusion

When are peacekeepers “green?”

Although the focus of United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operations (PKOs) remains peace and security, missions may also have an environmental orientation. Such an emphasis is usually based on environmental goals and activities in operation mandates or deployed units on the ground dedicated to environmental matters. A “green” mission orientation can strengthen peacekeepers’ commitment to environmental protection and help promote environmental quality in host countries. However, little is known about what leads to an environmental mission orientation in the first place. This research contributes to addressing this question as I analyze the mission orientation of African PKOs since 1991. Consistent with the general rationale that interventions tend to strategically select themselves into the more difficult cases, I report evidence that peacekeepers are more likely to have a green orientation when host countries are more exposed to climate change and environmental stress. The analysis is complemented by a short qualitative study of UN peacekeeping in Somalia

Political Leadership Changes and the Withdrawal from Military Coalition Operations, 1946-2001

Several studies have claimed that changes in the political leadership of a country affect foreign policy decision making. The following paper systematically tests this in the context of states' participation in military coalition operations. By building on previous theoretical models, the authors argue that new leaders may differ from their predecessors in that the former (i) have dissimilar preferences with regard to the involvement in military interventions, (ii) evaluate relevant information differently, and (iii) are less likely to be entrapped in intervention policies. Ultimately, the net effect of these factors should make it more likely that political leadership turnovers are associated with premature withdrawals from ongoing military coalitions. The theory is tested by quantitative analyses of newly collected data on military coalition operations in 1946-2001 and a qualitative case study. The authors find strong and robust support for their argumen

The security implications of transnational population movements: A meta-analysis

Are migrants and refugees systematically linked to insecurity? This article, for the first time, takes stock of the interdisciplinary quantitative research on this question using meta-analysis. We compiled a unique dataset comprising more than 70 published studies across a variety of spatial and temporal scales covering 1951–2016. We show that an overall effect linking foreign-born populations to insecurity may exist, but there is little evidence for refugees or migrants consistently leading to more insecurity when assuming a disaggregated perspective. Specifically, foreign-born populations are unlikely to be systematically related to terrorism and hate crimes, while they can be associated with a higher risk of state-based disputes, inter-group conflict, and one-sided violence. This study adds to our understanding of the security implications of refugees and migrants as it sheds more light on the actual effect transnational population movements have on insecurity, thereby informing the research agenda in the years to come