Assessing long-term tephra fallout hazard in southern Italy from Neapolitan volcanoes

Nowadays, modeling of tephra fallout hazard is coupled with probabilistic analysis that takes into account the natural variability of the volcanic phenomena in terms of eruption probability, eruption sizes, vent position, and meteorological conditions. In this framework, we present a prototypal methodology to carry out the long-term tephra fallout hazard assessment in southern Italy from the active Neapolitan volcanoes: Somma–Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia. The FALL3D model (v.8.0) has been used to run thousands of numerical simulations (1500 per eruption size class), considering the ECMWF ERA5 meteorological dataset over the last 30 years. The output in terms of tephra ground load has been processed within a new workflow for large-scale, high-resolution volcanic hazard assessment, relying on a Bayesian procedure, in order to provide the mean annual frequency with which the tephra load at the ground exceeds given critical thresholds at a target site within a 50-year exposure time. Our results are expressed in terms of absolute mean hazard maps considering different levels of aggregation, from the impact of each volcanic source and eruption size class to the quantification of the total hazard. This work provides, for the first time, a multi-volcano probabilistic hazard assessment posed by tephra fallout, comparable with those used for seismic phenomena and other natural disasters. This methodology can be applied to any other volcanic areas or over different exposure times, allowing researchers to account for the eruptive history of the target volcanoes that, when available, could include the occurrence of less frequent large eruptions, representing critical elements for risk evaluations.</p

The EU Center of Excellence for Exascale in Solid Earth (ChEESE): Implementation, results, and roadmap for the second phase

publishedVersio

Comprehensive analysis and insights gained from long-term experience of the Spanish DILI Registry

Altres ajuts: Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER); Agencia Española del Medicamento; Consejería de Salud de Andalucía.Background & Aims: Prospective drug-induced liver injury (DILI) registries are important sources of information on idiosyncratic DILI. We aimed to present a comprehensive analysis of 843 patients with DILI enrolled into the Spanish DILI Registry over a 20-year time period. Methods: Cases were identified, diagnosed and followed prospectively. Clinical features, drug information and outcome data were collected. Results: A total of 843 patients, with a mean age of 54 years (48% females), were enrolled up to 2018. Hepatocellular injury was associated with younger age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] per year 0.983; 95% CI 0.974-0.991) and lower platelet count (aOR per unit 0.996; 95% CI 0.994-0.998). Anti-infectives were the most common causative drug class (40%). Liver-related mortality was more frequent in patients with hepatocellular damage aged ≥65 years (p = 0.0083) and in patients with underlying liver disease (p = 0.0221). Independent predictors of liver-related death/transplantation included nR-based hepatocellular injury, female sex, higher onset aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and bilirubin values. nR-based hepatocellular injury was not associated with 6-month overall mortality, for which comorbidity burden played a more important role. The prognostic capacity of Hy's law varied between causative agents. Empirical therapy (corticosteroids, ursodeoxycholic acid and MARS) was prescribed to 20% of patients. Drug-induced autoimmune hepatitis patients (26 cases) were mainly females (62%) with hepatocellular damage (92%), who more frequently received immunosuppressive therapy (58%). Conclusions: AST elevation at onset is a strong predictor of poor outcome and should be routinely assessed in DILI evaluation. Mortality is higher in older patients with hepatocellular damage and patients with underlying hepatic conditions. The Spanish DILI Registry is a valuable tool in the identification of causative drugs, clinical signatures and prognostic risk factors in DILI and can aid physicians in DILI characterisation and management. Lay summary: Clinical information on drug-induced liver injury (DILI) collected from enrolled patients in the Spanish DILI Registry can guide physicians in the decision-making process. We have found that older patients with hepatocellular type liver injury and patients with additional liver conditions are at a higher risk of mortality. The type of liver injury, patient sex and analytical values of aspartate aminotransferase and total bilirubin can also help predict clinical outcomes