Forecasting electricity consumption using SARIMA method in IBM SPSS software

Forecasting is a prediction of future values based on historical data. It can be conducted using various methods such as statistical methods or machine learning techniques. Electricity is a necessity of modern life. Hence, accurate forecasting of electricity demand is important. Overestimation will cause a waste of energy but underestimation leads to higher operation costs. Univesity Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia (UTHM) is a developing Malaysian technical university, therefore there is a need to forecast UTHM electricity consumption for future decisions on generating electric power, load switching, and infrastructure development. The monthly UTHM electricity consumption data exhibits seasonality-periodic fluctuations. Thus, the seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method was applied in IBM SPSS software to predict UTHM electricity consumption for 2019 via Box-Jenkins method and Expert Modeler. There were a total of 120 observations taken from January year 2009 to December year 2018 to build the models. The best model from both methods is SARIMA(0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)12. It was found that the result through the Box-Jenkins method is approximately the same with the result generated through Expert Modeler in SPSS with MAPE of 8.4%

Phenotypic and genotypic characterisation of qacA-containing Staphylococcus aureus in New Zealand

Staphylococcus aureus is a significant human pathogen and is the primary cause of skin and soft tissue infections. Antimicrobial resistance is an ongoing concern, with increasing reports of multi-resistant S. aureus infections which have limited options available for treatment. New Zealand has high incidence rates of infections caused by S. aureus, with the predominant circulating clone often being resistant to the topical antibiotics fusidic acid and mupirocin. Healthcare facilities have relied on chlorhexidine as the main antimicrobial agent used to prevent and control infections caused by common pathogens including S. aureus. Chlorhexidine resistance in S. aureus has been associated with qacA, a gene which encodes for a multi-drug efflux pump. The objectives of this study were to (i) determine prevalence of qacA in New Zealand S. aureus; (ii) correlate prevalence of qacA gene in New Zealand S. aureus strains with clonal lineages, susceptibility profiles, and patient demographics; and (iii) examine the genetic context of the qacA gene in circulating S. aureus clones. The qacA prevalence in New Zealand S. aureus isolates is 7%. Concerningly, presence of the qacA gene is associated with the predominant clonal lineage spa type t127 strain found in New Zealand. The predominant New Zealand t127 strain is synonymous with fusidic acid resistance and, in 45% of cases, mupirocin resistant. The combination of qacA with fusidic acid and mupirocin resistance in S. aureus has the theoretical potential of being resistant to the three most common topical treatment options used for skin and soft tissue infections. We were unable to find a statistically significant difference in phenotypic susceptibility to chlorhexidine when testing isolates with and without qacA. Despite being unable to find reduced susceptibility in qacA carrying strains, these strains continue to be associated with failed decolonisation strategies in case control studies. Further work could look at the development of an assay in different milieu to detect phenotypic expression of qacA which leads to reduced susceptibility to chlorhexidine. The qacA gene was found on a ~28 kb plasmid, co-located with genes that confer resistance to penicillins and mupirocin (mupA). The representative plasmid (pNZAK1) closely resembles the ubiquitous pMW2 plasmid. Interestingly, mupA and the qac operon are found on a ~7 kb insertion sequence. A nucleotide BLAST search of this sequence indicates that this genetic arrangement is specific to the ST1, t127 clonal lineage in New Zealand. Although not closely located in the genome, qacA and the fusidic acid resistance gene fusC are both associated with the predominant t127 clone. These findings suggest that the heavy use of topical antibiotics and amoxicillin consumption in New Zealand may have contributed to the marked prevalence of qacA in New Zealand S. aureus. Taken together, antimicrobial use, including chlorhexidine, has the theoretical potential to select out multi-resistant S. aureus leading to the predominance and success of the t127 clone and consequently, to the high rates of infection found in New Zealand. Thus, consideration should be given to the widespread use of chlorhexidine and the unintended consequence this has on health-care related infections

Forecasting electricity consumption using the second-order fuzzy time series

There is a great development of Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia (UTHM) infrastructure since its formation in 1993. The development will be accompanied by the increasing demand for electricity. Hence, there is a need to forecast UTHM electricity consumption accurately so that UTHM can plan for future energy demand and utility saving decisions. Previous studies on UTHM electricity consumption prediction have been carried out using time series models, multiple linear regression and first-order fuzzy time series (FTS). The first-order FTS yield the best accuracy among these three methods. Previous forecasting problem showed higher order FTS can yield better accuracy. Therefore, in this study, the second-order FTS with trapezoidal membership function was implemented on the UTHM monthly electricity consumption from January 2009 to December 2018 to forecast January to December 2019 monthly electricity consumption. The procedure of the FTS and trapezoidal membership function was described together with January data. The second-order FTS forecast UTHM electricity consumption better than the first-order FTS

Comparative genomics of Bordetella pertussis isolates from New Zealand, a country with an uncommonly high incidence of whooping cough

Whooping cough, the respiratory disease caused by Bordetella pertussis , has undergone a wide-spread resurgence over the last several decades. Previously, we developed a pipeline to assemble the repetitive B. pertussis genome into closed sequences using hybrid nanopore and Illumina sequencing. Here, this sequencing pipeline was used to conduct a more high-throughput, longitudinal screen of 66 strains isolated between 1982 and 2018 in New Zealand. New Zealand has a higher incidence of whooping cough than many other countries; usually at least twice as many cases per 100000 people as the USA and UK and often even higher, despite similar rates of vaccine uptake. To the best of our knowledge, these strains are the first New Zealand B. pertussis isolates to be sequenced. The analyses here show that, on the whole, genomic trends in New Zealand B. pertussis isolates, such as changing allelic profile in vaccine-related genes and increasing pertactin deficiency, have paralleled those seen elsewhere in the world. At the same time, phylogenetic comparisons of the New Zealand isolates with global isolates suggest that a number of strains are circulating in New Zealand, which cluster separately from other global strains, but which are closely related to each other. The results of this study add to a growing body of knowledge regarding recent changes to the B. pertussis genome, and are the first genetic investigation into B. pertussis isolates from New Zealand

Predictors of hospital surface contamination with Extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae: patient and organism factors

BACKGROUND: The role of the hospital environment in transmission of ESBL-Klebsiella pneumoniae (ESBL-KP) and ESBL-Escherichia coli (ESBL-EC) is poorly defined. Recent data however suggest that in the hospital setting, ESBL-KP is more transmissible than ESBL-EC. We sought therefore to measure the difference in hospital contamination rates between the two species and to identify key risk factors for contamination of the hospital environment with these organisms. METHODS: We systematically sampled 8 surfaces in the rooms and bathrooms of adult patients colonized or infected with ESBL-EC or ESBL-KP throughout their hospital stay. Data were collected on factors potentially affecting contamination rates. Environmental contamination was defined as recovery of an ESBL-producing organism matching the source patient’s isolate. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed at the level of the patient visit using generalized estimating equations to identify independent predictors of environmental contamination. RESULTS: 24 patients (11 with ESBL-KP, 11 ESBL-EC and 2 with both organisms) had 1104 swabs collected during 138 visits. The overall contamination rate was 3.4% (38/1104) and was significantly higher for ESBL-KP than ESBL-EC (5.4% versus 0.4%; p < 0.0001). After multivariate analysis, environmental contamination was found to be negatively associated with carbapenem exposure (OR 0.06 [95% CI 0.01-0.61]; p = 0.017) and positively associated with the presence of an indwelling urinary catheter (OR 6.12 [95% CI 1.23-30.37]; p = 0.027) and ESBL-KP in the source patient (OR 26.23 [95% CI 2.70-254.67]; p = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS: Contamination of the hospital environment with ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-E) is inversely associated with carbapenem exposure. Predictors of hospital contamination with ESBL-E include: indwelling urinary catheters and ESBL-KP. Rooms of patients with ESBL-KP have substantially higher contamination rates than those with ESBL-EC. This finding may help explain the apparently higher transmissibility of ESBL-KP in the hospital setting

Impact of Government Expenditure, Exchange Rate and Unemployment Rate on Economic Growth of Malaysia

The objective of the study is to investigate the association between government expenditure, exchange rate and unemployment rate on economic growth of Malaysia from 1988 to 2017. All variables in the model are cointegrated with two cointegrating vectors and implies that long-run relationship exist. Granger Causality based on Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) revealed an unidirectional short run causality from government expenditure to economic growth, economic growth to unemployment, unemployment to exchange rate and unemployment to government expenditure. Policies such as fiscal policy and exchange rate policy need to be implemented by policy makers in Malaysia to ensure empowering economic growth

Phenotypic spectrum and transcriptomic profile associated with germline variants in TRAF7

PURPOSE: Somatic variants in tumor necrosis factor receptor-associated factor 7 (TRAF7) cause meningioma, while germline variants have recently been identified in seven patients with developmental delay and cardiac, facial, and digital anomalies. We aimed to define the clinical and mutational spectrum associated with TRAF7 germline variants in a large series of patients, and to determine the molecular effects of the variants through transcriptomic analysis of patient fibroblasts. METHODS: We performed exome, targeted capture, and Sanger sequencing of patients with undiagnosed developmental disorders, in multiple independent diagnostic or research centers. Phenotypic and mutational comparisons were facilitated through data exchange platforms. Whole-transcriptome sequencing was performed on RNA from patient- and control-derived fibroblasts. RESULTS: We identified heterozygous missense variants in TRAF7 as the cause of a developmental delay-malformation syndrome in 45 patients. Major features include a recognizable facial gestalt (characterized in particular by blepharophimosis), short neck, pectus carinatum, digital deviations, and patent ductus arteriosus. Almost all variants occur in the WD40 repeats and most are recurrent. Several differentially expressed genes were identified in patient fibroblasts. CONCLUSION: We provide the first large-scale analysis of the clinical and mutational spectrum associated with the TRAF7 developmental syndrome, and we shed light on its molecular etiology through transcriptome studies

The development of meridional anisotropies in neurotypical children with and without astigmatism: Electrophysiological and psychophysical findings

It is important to understand the development of meridional anisotropies in neurotypical children since those with poor visual development, such as amblyopia, can have different patterns of meridional anisotropies. While the oblique effect is usually observed in adults, neurotypical children who have normal 20/20 visual acuity tend to demonstrate a horizontal effect electrophysiologically. In this longitudinal study, orientation-specific visual evoked potentials (osVEPs) and psychophysical grating acuity were used to investigate the changes in the meridional anisotropies in children aged 3.8 to 9.2 years over two visits averaging four months apart. While it was hypothesized that the electrophysiological horizontal effect may shift towards an oblique effect, it was found that the electrophysiological horizontal effect persisted to be present in response to the suprathreshold moderate contrast 4 cycles-per-degree grating stimuli. Psychophysical grating acuity, however, demonstrated an oblique effect when assessed binocularly. In addition, a significant effect of visit, representing an increase in the average age over this period, was observed in the average osVEP C3 amplitudes (4.5 μV) and psychophysical grating acuity (0.28 octaves or approximately 1-line on the logMAR chart). These findings are relevant when evaluating amblyopia treatments and interventions, as it confirms the necessity to take into account of the effect of normal maturation and learning effects when evaluating young children. Special attention should also be given to children with early-onset myopia and high astigmatism even when their visual acuity is 20/20 as the electrophysiological findings are suggestive of poor visual development, which warrants further investigation

Genome Typing and Epidemiology of Human Listeriosis in New Zealand, 1999 to 2018

International audienceThis study describes the epidemiology of listeriosis in New Zealand between 1999 and 2018 as well as the retrospective whole-genome sequencing (WGS) of 453 Listeria monocytogenes isolates corresponding to 95% of the human cases within this period. The average notified rate of listeriosis was 0.5 cases per 100,000 population, and non-pregnancy-associated cases were more prevalent than pregnancy-associated cases (averages of 19 and 5 cases per annum, respectively)