DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF FLOOD FOOTPRINT ANALYTICAL MODEL IN ASSESSING ECONOMIC IMPACT TO FLOODING EVENTS

This thesis presents a methodological approach, the flood footprint framework, to capture the total economic costs of flooding events, as some of the most damaging climatic disasters. Economic costs are constituted by physical destruction, and all cascaded disruptions caused by the direct destruction. The method uses the fundamentals of Input-Output modelling, which is founded on the conceptualisation of the circular flow of the economy, representing the complex transactions between producers and intermediate and final consumers, for each sector, in an algebraic array. The solution of the equations’ system allows quantification of direct and indirect impacts along the value chain from changes in final demand. The flood footprint model further extends to capture changes in production due to the distortions of the economic equilibrium caused by flooding events, and to simulate the economy’s recovery. Sources of flooding disruption within the model arise from capital constraints, disruptions to labour force, and behavioural changes in final consumption. The method was applied to four case studies. The outcomes support the lesson that losses from a disaster are exacerbated and disseminated to other economies throughout economic mechanisms, and those knock-on effects (or indirect damages) constitute a substantial proportion of total economic losses, where non-directly flooded sectors might be also severely affected. The main implications for adaptation strategies are the review of the dynamics of direct and indirect damages and to unveil vulnerable hotspots along the value chain. This would allow an efficient allocation of investment resources and minimisation of socioeconomic damages during post-flood economic recovery. The key contribution of this thesis is a comprehensive methodology for assessing the total economic impacts of flooding events, considering elements that had not been taken into account together before, by incorporating multidisciplinary techniques for evaluation and projection of future scenarios, and bringing the analysis to a multiregional (global) scale

Assessing the economic impacts of IT service shutdown during the York flood of 2015 in the UK

In this paper we focus on the ‘Christmas’ flood in York (UK), 2015. The case is special in the sense that little infrastructure was lost or damaged, while a single industry (IT services) was completely knocked out for a limited time. Due to these characteristics, the standard modelling techniques are no longer appropriate. An alternative option is provided by the Hypothetical Extraction Method, or HEM. However, there are restrictions in using the HEM, one being that no realistic substitutes exist for inputs from industries that were affected. In this paper we discuss these restrictions and show that the HEM performs well in the York flood case. In the empirical part of this paper we show that a three-day shutdown of the IT services caused a £3.24 m to £4.23 m loss in York, which is equivalent to 10% of the three days' average GVA (Gross Value Added) of York city. The services sector (excluding IT services) sustained the greatest loss at £0.80 m, where the business support industry which was predominantly hit. This study is the first to apply a HEM in this type of flood on a daily basis

Flood Footprint Assessment: A Multiregional Case of 2009 Central European Floods

Hydrometeorological phenomena have increased in intensity and frequency in last decades, with Europe as one of the most affected areas. This accounts for considerable economic losses in the region. Regional adaptation strategies for costs minimization require a comprehensive assessment of the disasters’ economic impacts at a multiple‐region scale. This article adapts the flood footprint method for multiple‐region assessment of total economic impact and applies it to the 2009 Central European Floods event. The flood footprint is an impact accounting framework based on the input–output methodology to economically assess the physical damage (direct) and production shortfalls (indirect) within a region and wider economic networks, caused by a climate disaster. Here, the model is extended through the capital matrix, to enable diverse recovery strategies. According to the results, indirect losses represent a considerable proportion of the total costs of a natural disaster, and most of them occur in nonhighly directly impacted industries. For the 2009 Central European Floods, the indirect losses represent 65% out of total, and 70% of it comes from four industries: business services, manufacture general, construction, and commerce. Additionally, results show that more industrialized economies would suffer more indirect losses than less‐industrialized ones, in spite of being less vulnerable to direct shocks. This may link to their specific economic structures of high capital‐intensity and strong interindustrial linkages

Flood footprint assessment: a new approach for flood-induced indirect economic impact measurement and post-flood recovery

Flooding in one location can impact the entire production chain of a regional economy. Neglecting the knock-on costs of this risks ignoring the economic benefits and beneficiaries of flood risk management interventions. However, economic consequence assessments in the existing studies are restricted to direct economic impact as there is not a generally accepted quantitative method to assess indirect economic impacts. This paper presents the full methodology for a novel flood footprint accounting framework -Flood Footprint Model - to assess the indirect economic impact of a flood event and simulate post-flood economic recovery situations throughout productions supply chains. Within the framework of Input-Output (IO) analysis, the model is built upon previous contributions, with: improvements regarding the optimization of available production imbalances; the requirements for recovering damaged capital; and an optimized rationing scheme, including basic demand and reconstruction requirements. The Flood Footprint Model will be applied into a hypothetical example with an extensive sensitivity analysis of the Flood Footprint Model performed, taking particular account of alternative labour and capital recovery paths

Assessment of the economic impacts of heat waves: A case study of Nanjing, China

The southeast region of China is frequently affected by summer heat waves. Nanjing, a metropolitan city in Jiangsu Province, China, experienced an extreme 14-day heat wave in 2013. Extreme heat can not only induce health outcomes in terms of excess mortality and morbidity (hospital admissions) but can also cause productivity losses for self-paced indoor workers and capacity losses for outdoor workers due to occupational safety requirements. All of these effects can be translated into productive working time losses, thus creating a need to investigate the macroeconomic implications of heat waves on production supply chains. Indeed, industrial interdependencies are important for capturing the cascading effects of initial changes in factor inputs in a single sector on the remaining sectors and the economy. To consider these effects, this paper develops an interdisciplinary approach by combining meteorological, epidemiological and economic analyses to investigate the macroeconomic impacts of heat waves on the economy of Nanjing in 2013. By adopting a supply-driven input-output (IO) model, labour is perceived to be a key factor input, and any heat effect on human beings can be viewed as a degradation of productive time and human capital. Using this interdisciplinary tool, our study shows a total economic loss of 27.49 billion Yuan for Nanjing in 2013 due to the heat wave, which is equivalent to 3.43% of the city's gross value of production in 2013. The manufacturing sector sustained 63.1% of the total economic loss at 17.34 billion Yuan. Indeed, based on the ability of the IO model to capture indirect economic loss, our results further suggest that although the productive time losses in the manufacturing and service sectors have lower magnitudes than those in the agricultural and mining sectors, they can entail substantial indirect losses because of industrial interdependencies. This important conclusion highlights the importance of incorporating industrial interdependencies and indirect economic assessments in disaster risk studies

Planeamiento estratégico para la empresa de producción de envases metálicos – Envases Ventanilla S.A. 2014 al 2024

La empresa EVENSA lleva 13 años dedicada a la elaboración de cilindros metálicos de 55gl, tapas twist off y envases de hojalata los cuales son utilizados por la agroindustria. En función a ello, se trabajara en: (a) desarrollar campañas promocionales que permitan ampliar la participación en el mercado e ingresar a nuevos segmentos, (b) generar acuerdos comerciales con los clientes más significativos para la empresa a fin de retenerlos y fidelizarlos, (c) ampliar el número de alianzas estratégicas con las empresas proveedoras de los principales insumos para la producción, (d) incrementar la inversión en máquinas con nueva tecnología que permitan acortar y acelerar los procesos, (e ) actualizar en forma permanente al personal en el uso de nuevas tecnologías aplicadas en sus respectivas líneas de producción y áreas administrativas, (f) desarrollar nuevos productos para diversificar la cartera de clientes. De este modo se aspira al logro de los objetivos trazado, a través del desarrollo, mantenimiento y fortalecimiento de las ventajas competitivas, trabajando especialmente en estrategias enfocadas a lograr la visión. Se espera que el 2024, la empresa EVENSA obtenga una posición más sólida en el mercado nacional, y una participación importante en los mercados mundiales, que aseguraran la existencia y rentabilidad del sector industrialEVENSA is a company that has elaborated 55gal metal cylinders, twist lids, and tinplate containers for thirteen years. These products are used by agroindustry. On such a basis, (a) we will work to develop promotional campaigns to expand market share and enter new segments, (b) generate trade agreements with the most important customers for the company to retain an loyalty, (c) increase the number of strategic alliances with major suppliers of production inputs, (d) increase investment in new technology machines to shorten and speed up processes, (e) constantly update staff on the use of new technologies in their production lines and administrative areas, (f) develop new products to diversify the customer base. Thus aspirational path to achieving the objectives through the development, maintenance and strengthening of competitive advantage, especially in focused working strategies to achieve the vision. It is hoped that for 2024 EVENSA could obtain a stronger position at national market and a more important participation in the global markets. This will ensure the existence and profitability of the industrial sector.Tesi

In vitro ruminal fermentation kinetics and energy utilization of three Mexican tree fodder species during the rainy and dry period

A factorial experimental design (3×2×3) was used to evaluate the effect of season of harvest and type of ruminal inoculums on in vitro ruminal fermentation kinetics and energy utilization of three browse tree foliages (Lysiloma acapulcencis, Quercus laeta and Pithecellobium dulce). Browse species were harvested during the dry season (DS) and rainy season (RS) and incubated with three different ruminal inoculums: cow, goats previously adapted (AG) or not adapted (UG) to browse species fed in their daily diet. Chemical composition, total condensed tannin (TCT), free-condensed tannin (free-CT), protein-bound condensed tannin (PCT), fiber-bound condensed tannin (FCT) as well as in vitro assaying of ruminal gas production kinetics was determined, while the short chain fatty acids (SCFA) and metabolizable energy (ME) were estimated. Crude protein (CP) was considerably higher (season×browse; P<0.001) during RS. P. dulce had the lowest neutral detergent fiber (NDFom) and acid detergent fiber (ADFom) in both seasons, while L. acapulcencis had the highest values and Q. laeta values were intermediate, with an overall increase in fiber fractions in DS browse foliages (season×browse; P<0.001). TCT content in tree species revealed differences (P<0.01). FCT and PCT were lower in Q. laeta and P. dulce during the RS than in DS, lower (P<0.01) Free-CT fractions were observed in L. acapulcencis and Q. Laeta than in P. dulce, during both seasons. in vitro gas production parameters was increased (P<0.05) in DS than in RS in browses with low and medium tannins contents (i.e., P. dulce and Q. laeta); consequently, browses energy utilization (i.e., SCFA and ME) and organic matter degradability (OMD) as well as fermentation efficiency (i.e., partition factor; PF) were improved (P<0.05). Generally, P. dulce had the highest (P<0.001) ruminal fermentation parameters and energy utilization values (more in DS than RS), while lowest values were founded in L. acapulcencis. Ruminal fluid ofADandUGhad higher (P<0.001) browse ruminal fermentation kinetics, efficiency and energy utilization than cow’s rumen fluid. The browse fermentation and energy utilization was improved in DS versus in RS and the browse fermentation and utilization were highest (P<0.05) in AG ruminal fluid than the others. Our results suggested a better nutritive value of P. dulce and Q. laeta with low and medium tannins contents and high CP concentration in cows and goats during the DS. Goats previously fed browse species in diets had a better ability to degrade and ferment the browse species than other animals

Flood footprint of the 2007 floods in the UK: The case of the Yorkshire and The Humber region

International headlines over the last few years have been dominated by extreme weather events, and floods have been amongst the most frequent and devastating. These disasters represent high costs and functional disruptions to societies and economies. The consequent breakdown of the economic equilibrium exacerbates the losses of the initial physical damages and generates indirect costs that largely amplify the burden of the total damage. Neglecting indirect damages results in misleading results regarding the real dimensions of the costs and prevents accurate decision-making in flood risk management. To obtain an accurate assessment of total flooding costs, this paper introduces the flood footprint concept, as a novel accounting framework that measures the total economic impact that is directly and indirectly caused to the productive system, triggered by the flooding damages to the productive factors, infrastructure and residential capital. The assessment framework account for the damages in the flooded region as well as in wider economic systems and social networks. The flood footprint builds on previous research on disaster impact analysis based on Input-Output methodology, which considers inter-industry flows of goods and services for economic output. The framework was applied to the 2007 summer floods in the UK to determine the total economic impact in the region of Yorkshire and The Humber. The results suggest that the total economic burden of the floods was approximately 4% of the region's GVA (£2.7 billion), from which over half comes from knock-on effects during the 14 months that the economy of Yorkshire and The Humber last to recover. This paper is the first to apply the conceptual framework of flood footprint to a real past event, by which it highlights the economic interdependence among industrial sectors. Through such interrelationships, the economic impacts of a flooding event spill over into the entire economic system, and some of the most affected sectors can be those that are not directly damaged. Neglecting the impact of indirect damages would underestimate the total social costs of flooding events, and mislead the correspondent actions for risk management and adaptation

Impact of COVID-19 on cardiovascular testing in the United States versus the rest of the world

Objectives: This study sought to quantify and compare the decline in volumes of cardiovascular procedures between the United States and non-US institutions during the early phase of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the care of many non-COVID-19 illnesses. Reductions in diagnostic cardiovascular testing around the world have led to concerns over the implications of reduced testing for cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality. Methods: Data were submitted to the INCAPS-COVID (International Atomic Energy Agency Non-Invasive Cardiology Protocols Study of COVID-19), a multinational registry comprising 909 institutions in 108 countries (including 155 facilities in 40 U.S. states), assessing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on volumes of diagnostic cardiovascular procedures. Data were obtained for April 2020 and compared with volumes of baseline procedures from March 2019. We compared laboratory characteristics, practices, and procedure volumes between U.S. and non-U.S. facilities and between U.S. geographic regions and identified factors associated with volume reduction in the United States. Results: Reductions in the volumes of procedures in the United States were similar to those in non-U.S. facilities (68% vs. 63%, respectively; p = 0.237), although U.S. facilities reported greater reductions in invasive coronary angiography (69% vs. 53%, respectively; p < 0.001). Significantly more U.S. facilities reported increased use of telehealth and patient screening measures than non-U.S. facilities, such as temperature checks, symptom screenings, and COVID-19 testing. Reductions in volumes of procedures differed between U.S. regions, with larger declines observed in the Northeast (76%) and Midwest (74%) than in the South (62%) and West (44%). Prevalence of COVID-19, staff redeployments, outpatient centers, and urban centers were associated with greater reductions in volume in U.S. facilities in a multivariable analysis. Conclusions: We observed marked reductions in U.S. cardiovascular testing in the early phase of the pandemic and significant variability between U.S. regions. The association between reductions of volumes and COVID-19 prevalence in the United States highlighted the need for proactive efforts to maintain access to cardiovascular testing in areas most affected by outbreaks of COVID-19 infection

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Summary Background Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. Methods We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung’s disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. Findings We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung’s disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middleincome countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in lowincome countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. Interpretation Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between lowincome, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030