Attribution of global foodborne disease to specific foods: Findings from a World Health Organization structured expert elicitation

Background Recently the World Health Organization, Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) estimated that 31 foodborne diseases (FBDs) resulted in over 600 million illnesses and 420,000 deaths worldwide in 2010. Knowing the relative role importance of different foods as exposure routes for key hazards is critical to preventing illness. This study reports the findings of a structured expert elicitation providing globally comparable food source attribution estimates for 11 major FBDs in each of 14 world subregions. Methods and findings We used Cooke’s Classical Model to elicit and aggregate judgments of 73 international experts. Judgments were elicited from each expert individually and aggregated using both equal and performance weights. Performance weighted results are reported as they increased the informativeness of estimates, while retaining accuracy. We report measures of central tendency and uncertainty bounds on food source attribution estimate. For some pathogens we see relatively consistent food source attribution estimates across subregions of the world; for others there is substantial regional variation. For example, for non-typhoidal salmonellosis, pork was of minor importance compared to eggs and poultry meat in the American and African subregions, whereas in the European and Western Pacific subregions the importance of these three food sources were quite similar. Our regional results broadly agree with estimates from earlier European and North American food source attribution research. As in prior food source attribution research, we find relatively wide uncertainty bounds around our median estimates. Conclusions We present the first worldwide estimates of the proportion of specific foodborne diseases attributable to specific food exposure routes. While we find substantial uncertainty around central tendency estimates, we believe these estimates provide the best currently available basis on which to link FBDs and specific foods in many parts of the world, providing guidance for policy actions to control FBDs.This study was commissioned and paid for by the World Health Organization (WHO). Aspinall & Associates and Gibb Epidemiology Consulting LLC provided support in the form of salaries for authors [WA, HJG], but did not have any additional role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. The specific roles of these authors are articulated in the ‘author contributions’ sectio

Targeted hepatitis C antibody testing interventions: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Testing for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection may reduce the risk of liver-related morbidity, by facilitating earlier access to treatment and care. This review investigated the effectiveness of targeted testing interventions on HCV case detection, treatment uptake, and prevention of liver-related morbidity. A literature search identified studies published up to 2013 that compared a targeted HCV testing intervention (targeting individuals or groups at increased risk of HCV) with no targeted intervention, and results were synthesised using meta-analysis. Exposure to a targeted testing intervention, compared to no targeted intervention, was associated with increased cases detected [number of studies (n) = 14; pooled relative risk (RR) 1.7, 95 % CI 1.3, 2.2] and patients commencing therapy (n = 4; RR 3.3, 95 % CI 1.1, 10.0). Practitioner-based interventions increased test uptake and cases detected (n = 12; RR 3.5, 95 % CI 2.5, 4.8; and n = 10; RR 2.2, 95 % CI 1.4, 3.5, respectively), whereas media/information-based interventions were less effective (n = 4; RR 1.5, 95 % CI 0.7, 3.0; and n = 4; RR 1.3, 95 % CI 1.0, 1.6, respectively). This meta-analysis provides for the first time a quantitative assessment of targeted HCV testing interventions, demonstrating that these strategies were effective in diagnosing cases and increasing treatment uptake. Strategies involving practitioner-based interventions yielded the most favourable outcomes. It is recommended that testing should be targeted at and offered to individuals who are part of a population with high HCV prevalence, or who have a history of HCV risk behaviour

International genome-wide meta-analysis identifies new primary biliary cirrhosis risk loci and targetable pathogenic pathways.

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is a classical autoimmune liver disease for which effective immunomodulatory therapy is lacking. Here we perform meta-analyses of discovery data sets from genome-wide association studies of European subjects (n=2,764 cases and 10,475 controls) followed by validation genotyping in an independent cohort (n=3,716 cases and 4,261 controls). We discover and validate six previously unknown risk loci for PBC (Pcombined<5 × 10(-8)) and used pathway analysis to identify JAK-STAT/IL12/IL27 signalling and cytokine-cytokine pathways, for which relevant therapies exist

Influence of heating rate and atmospheric conditions on the thermal response of CFRP and its constituents

The thermal stability of carbon fibre-reinforced polymer (CFRP) and its constituents (neat epoxy resin and carbon fibre) are studied in terms of mass loss using a thermogravimetry technique at different heating rates and two atmospheric conditions (air and pure nitrogen). By interpreting the mass loss over a temperature range of 25–900 °C, it was possible to identify the specific mechanisms of polymer degradation. In an oxygen-free pure nitrogen atmosphere, the thermal degradation of epoxy resin used as the composite's matrix is strongly inhibited up to the temperature of 400 °C, after which it undergoes thermal decomposition, in contrast to the carbon fibre reinforcement that does not degrade in nitrogen. In an air atmosphere, however, the CFRP and its constituents degrade via a complex reaction pathway encompassing three endothermic reactions (pyrolysis of the epoxy resin, oxidation of the residue from the first pyrolysis reaction and carbon fibre oxidation) that overlap and one endothermic reaction in nitrogen (pyrolysis of the epoxy resin). A deconvolution technique based on fitting log-normal distributions to the first derivative of the mass loss data has also been undertaken to separate the thermal decomposition reactions for each CFRP to understand the effect of each reaction's contribution. It can be used to evaluate complex thermal degradation processes that can be characterised by finding the respective kinetic parameters of each reaction, e.g. by using combined kinetics analysis

Characterizing the risk interplay between alcohol intake and body mass index on cirrhosis morbidity

Background and Aims: It is thought that alcohol intake and body mass index (BMI) interact supra-additively to modulate the risk of cirrhosis, but evidence for this phenomenon is limited. We investigated the interrelationship between alcohol and BMI on the incidence of cirrhosis morbidity for participants of the United Kingdom Biobank (UKB) study. Approach and Results: The primary outcome was the cumulative incidence of cirrhosis morbidity, defined as a first-time hospital admission for cirrhosis (with noncirrhosis mortality incorporated as a competing risk). All UKB participants without a previous hospital admission for cirrhosis were included in the analysis. We determined the ratio of the 10-year cumulative incidence in harmful drinkers versus safe drinkers according to BMI. We also calculated the excess cumulative incidence at 10 years for individuals with obesity and/or harmful alcohol compared to safe drinkers with a healthy BMI of 20–25.0 kg/m2. A total of 489,285 UK Biobank participants were included, with mean of 10.7 person-years’ follow-up. A total of 2070 participants developed the primary outcome, equating to a crude cumulative incidence of 0.36% at 10 years (95% CI:0.34–0.38). The 10-year cumulative incidence was 8.6 times higher for harmful (1.38%) versus safe drinkers (0.16%) if BMI was healthy. Conversely, it was only 3.6 times higher for obese participants (1.99% vs. 0.56%). Excess cumulative incidence was 1.22% (95% CI:0.89–1.55) for harmful drinkers with a healthy BMI, 0.40% (95% CI:0.34–0.46) for obese individuals drinking at safe levels, and 1.83% (95% CI:1.46–2.20) for obese harmful drinkers (all compared to safe drinkers with a healthy BMI). Conclusions: Alcohol intake and obesity are independent risk factors for cirrhosis morbidity, but they do not interact supra-additively to modulate the cumulative incidence of this outcome

Interventions to prevent HIV and Hepatitis C in people who inject drugs: a review of reviews to assess evidence of effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: Injecting drug use is a major risk factor for the acquisition and transmission of HIV and Hepatitis C virus (HCV). Prevention of these infections among people who inject drugs (PWID) is critical to reduce ongoing transmission, morbidity and mortality. METHODS: A review of reviews was undertaken involving systematic literature searches of Medline, Embase, CINAHL, PsychINFO, IBSS and the Cochrane Library (2000-2011) to identify English language reviews regarding the effectiveness of harm reduction interventions in relation to HIV transmission, HCV transmission and injecting risk behaviour (IRB). Interventions included needle and syringe programmes (NSP); the provision of injection paraphernalia; opiate substitution treatment (OST); information, education and counselling (IEC); and supervised injecting facilities (SIFs). Reviews were classified into 'core' or 'supplementary' using critical appraisal criteria, and the strength of review-level evidence was assessed. RESULTS: Twelve core and thirteen supplementary reviews were included. From these reviews we identified: (i) for NSP: tentative review-level evidence to support effectiveness in reducing HIV transmission, insufficient review-level evidence relating to HCV transmission, but sufficient review-level evidence in relation to IRB; (ii) for OST: sufficient review-level evidence of effectiveness in relation to HIV transmission and IRB, but tentative review-level evidence in relation to HCV transmission; (iii) for IEC, the provision of injection paraphernalia and SIFs: tentative review-level evidence of effectiveness in reducing IRB; and either insufficient or no review-level evidence for these interventions in relation to HIV or HCV transmission. CONCLUSION: Review-level evidence indicates that harm reduction interventions can reduce IRB, with evidence strongest for OST and NSP. However, there is comparatively little review-level evidence regarding the effectiveness of these interventions in preventing HCV transmission among PWID. Further studies are needed to assess the effectiveness and impact of scaling up comprehensive packages of harm reduction interventions to minimise HIV and HCV transmission among PWID