Comparing different early warning systems: Results from a horse race competition among members of the Macro-prudential Research Network

Over the recent decades researchers in academia and central banks have developed early warning systems (EWS) designed to warn policy makers of potential future economic and financial crises. These EWS are based on diverse approaches and empirical models. In this paper we compare the performance of nine distinct models for predicting banking crises resulting from the work of the Macroprudential Research Network (MaRs) initiated by the European System of Central Banks. In order to ensure comparability, all models use the same database of crises created by MaRs and comparable sets of potential early warning indicators. We evaluate the models’ relative usefulness by comparing the ratios of false alarms and missed crises and discuss implications for pratical use and future research. We find that multivariate models, in their many appearances, have great potential added value over simple signalling models. One of the main policy recommendations coming from this exercise is that policy makers can benefit from taking a broad methodological approach when they develop models to set macro-prudential instruments

Comparing different early warning systems: Results from a horse race competition among members of the Macro-prudential Research Network

Over the recent decades researchers in academia and central banks have developed early warning systems (EWS) designed to warn policy makers of potential future economic and financial crises. These EWS are based on diverse approaches and empirical models. In this paper we compare the performance of nine distinct models for predicting banking crises resulting from the work of the Macroprudential Research Network (MaRs) initiated by the European System of Central Banks. In order to ensure comparability, all models use the same database of crises created by MaRs and comparable sets of potential early warning indicators. We evaluate the models’ relative usefulness by comparing the ratios of false alarms and missed crises and discuss implications for pratical use and future research. We find that multivariate models, in their many appearances, have great potential added value over simple signalling models. One of the main policy recommendations coming from this exercise is that policy makers can benefit from taking a broad methodological approach when they develop models to set macro-prudential instruments

Comparing different early warning systems: Results from a horse race competition among members of the Macro-prudential Research Network

Over the recent decades researchers in academia and central banks have developed early warning systems (EWS) designed to warn policy makers of potential future economic and financial crises. These EWS are based on diverse approaches and empirical models. In this paper we compare the performance of nine distinct models for predicting banking crises resulting from the work of the Macroprudential Research Network (MaRs) initiated by the European System of Central Banks. In order to ensure comparability, all models use the same database of crises created by MaRs and comparable sets of potential early warning indicators. We evaluate the models’ relative usefulness by comparing the ratios of false alarms and missed crises and discuss implications for pratical use and future research. We find that multivariate models, in their many appearances, have great potential added value over simple signalling models. One of the main policy recommendations coming from this exercise is that policy makers can benefit from taking a broad methodological approach when they develop models to set macro-prudential instruments

Les droits disciplinaires des fonctions publiques : « unification », « harmonisation » ou « distanciation ». A propos de la loi du 26 avril 2016 relative à la déontologie et aux droits et obligations des fonctionnaires

The production of tt‾ , W+bb‾ and W+cc‾ is studied in the forward region of proton–proton collisions collected at a centre-of-mass energy of 8 TeV by the LHCb experiment, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.98±0.02 fb−1 . The W bosons are reconstructed in the decays W→ℓν , where ℓ denotes muon or electron, while the b and c quarks are reconstructed as jets. All measured cross-sections are in agreement with next-to-leading-order Standard Model predictions.The production of $t\overline{t}$, $W+b\overline{b}$ and $W+c\overline{c}$ is studied in the forward region of proton-proton collisions collected at a centre-of-mass energy of 8 TeV by the LHCb experiment, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.98 $\pm$ 0.02 \mbox{fb}^{-1}. The $W$ bosons are reconstructed in the decays $W\rightarrow\ell\nu$, where $\ell$ denotes muon or electron, while the $b$ and $c$ quarks are reconstructed as jets. All measured cross-sections are in agreement with next-to-leading-order Standard Model predictions

Measurement of the J/ψ pair production cross-section in pp collisions at s=13 \sqrt{s}=13 TeV

The production cross-section of J/ψ pairs is measured using a data sample of pp collisions collected by the LHCb experiment at a centre-of-mass energy of $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 279 ±11 pb$^{−1}$. The measurement is performed for J/ψ mesons with a transverse momentum of less than 10 GeV/c in the rapidity range 2.0 < y < 4.5. The production cross-section is measured to be 15.2 ± 1.0 ± 0.9 nb. The first uncertainty is statistical, and the second is systematic. The differential cross-sections as functions of several kinematic variables of the J/ψ pair are measured and compared to theoretical predictions.The production cross-section of $J/\psi$ pairs is measured using a data sample of $pp$ collisions collected by the LHCb experiment at a centre-of-mass energy of $\sqrt{s} = 13 \,{\mathrm{TeV}}$, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of $279 \pm 11 \,{\mathrm{pb^{-1}}}$. The measurement is performed for $J/\psi$ mesons with a transverse momentum of less than $10 \,{\mathrm{GeV}}/c$ in the rapidity range $2.0<y<4.5$. The production cross-section is measured to be $15.2 \pm 1.0 \pm 0.9 \,{\mathrm{nb}}$. The first uncertainty is statistical, and the second is systematic. The differential cross-sections as functions of several kinematic variables of the $J/\psi$ pair are measured and compared to theoretical predictions

Measurement of forward W→eνW\to e\nu production in pppp collisions at s=8 \sqrt{s}=8\,TeV

A measurement of the cross-section for $W \to e\nu$ production in $pp$ collisions is presented using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of $2\,$fb$^{-1}$ collected by the LHCb experiment at a centre-of-mass energy of $\sqrt{s}=8\,$TeV. The electrons are required to have more than $20\,$GeV of transverse momentum and to lie between 2.00 and 4.25 in pseudorapidity. The inclusive $W$ production cross-sections, where the $W$ decays to $e\nu$, are measured to be \begin{align*} \begin{split} \sigma_{W^{+} \to e^{+}\nu_{e}}&=1124.4\pm 2.1\pm 21.5\pm 11.2\pm 13.0\,\mathrm{pb},\\ \sigma_{W^{-} \to e^{-}\bar{\nu}_{e}}&=\,\,\,809.0\pm 1.9\pm 18.1\pm\,\,\,7.0\pm \phantom{0}9.4\,\mathrm{pb}, \end{split} \end{align*} where the first uncertainties are statistical, the second are systematic, the third are due to the knowledge of the LHC beam energy and the fourth are due to the luminosity determination. Differential cross-sections as a function of the electron pseudorapidity are measured. The $W^{+}/W^{-}$ cross-section ratio and production charge asymmetry are also reported. Results are compared with theoretical predictions at next-to-next-to-leading order in perturbative quantum chromodynamics. Finally, in a precise test of lepton universality, the ratio of $W$ boson branching fractions is determined to be \begin{align*} \begin{split} \mathcal{B}(W \to e\nu)/\mathcal{B}(W \to \mu\nu)=1.020\pm 0.002\pm 0.019, \end{split} \end{align*} where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic.A measurement of the cross-section for $W \to e\nu$ production in $pp$ collisions is presented using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of $2\,$fb$^{-1}$ collected by the LHCb experiment at a centre-of-mass energy of $\sqrt{s}=8\,$TeV. The electrons are required to have more than $20\,$GeV of transverse momentum and to lie between 2.00 and 4.25 in pseudorapidity. The inclusive $W$ production cross-sections, where the $W$ decays to $e\nu$, are measured to be \begin{equation*} \sigma_{W^{+} \to e^{+}\nu_{e}}=1124.4\pm 2.1\pm 21.5\pm 11.2\pm 13.0\,\mathrm{pb}, \end{equation*} \begin{equation*} \sigma_{W^{-} \to e^{-}\bar{\nu}_{e}}=\,\,\,809.0\pm 1.9\pm 18.1\pm\,\,\,7.0\pm \phantom{0}9.4\,\mathrm{pb}, \end{equation*} where the first uncertainties are statistical, the second are systematic, the third are due to the knowledge of the LHC beam energy and the fourth are due to the luminosity determination. Differential cross-sections as a function of the electron pseudorapidity are measured. The $W^{+}/W^{-}$ cross-section ratio and production charge asymmetry are also reported. Results are compared with theoretical predictions at next-to-next-to-leading order in perturbative quantum chromodynamics. Finally, in a precise test of lepton universality, the ratio of $W$ boson branching fractions is determined to be \begin{equation*} \mathcal{B}(W \to e\nu)/\mathcal{B}(W \to \mu\nu)=1.020\pm 0.002\pm 0.019, \end{equation*} where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic.A measurement of the cross-section for W → eν production in pp collisions is presented using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2 fb$^{−1}$ collected by the LHCb experiment at a centre-of-mass energy of $\sqrt{s}=8$ TeV. The electrons are required to have more than 20 GeV of transverse momentum and to lie between 2.00 and 4.25 in pseudorapidity. The inclusive W production cross-sections, where the W decays to eν, are measured to be ${\sigma}_{W^{+}\to {e}^{+}{\nu}_e}=1124.4\pm 2.1\pm 21.5\pm 11.2\pm 13.0\kern0.5em \mathrm{p}\mathrm{b},$ ${\sigma}_{W^{-}\to {e}^{-}{\overline{\nu}}_e}=809.0\pm 1.9\pm 18.1\pm \kern0.5em 7.0\pm \kern0.5em 9.4\,\mathrm{p}\mathrm{b},$ where the first uncertainties are statistical, the second are systematic, the third are due to the knowledge of the LHC beam energy and the fourth are due to the luminosity determination

Study of forward Z + jet production in pp collisions at √s=7 TeV

A measurement of the $Z(\rightarrow\mu^+\mu^-)$+jet production cross-section in $pp$ collisions at a centre-of-mass energy $\sqrt{s} = 7$ TeV is presented. The analysis is based on an integrated luminosity of $1.0\,\text{fb}^{-1}$ recorded by the LHCb experiment. Results are shown with two jet transverse momentum thresholds, 10 and 20 GeV, for both the overall cross-section within the fiducial volume, and for six differential cross-section measurements. The fiducial volume requires that both the jet and the muons from the Z boson decay are produced in the forward direction ($2.0<\eta<4.5$). The results show good agreement with theoretical predictions at the second-order expansion in the coupling of the strong interaction.A measurement of the $Z(\rightarrow\mu^+\mu^-)$+jet production cross-section in $pp$ collisions at a centre-of-mass energy $\sqrt{s} = 7$ TeV is presented. The analysis is based on an integrated luminosity of $1.0\,\text{fb}^{-1}$ recorded by the LHCb experiment. Results are shown with two jet transverse momentum thresholds, 10 and 20 GeV, for both the overall cross-section within the fiducial volume, and for six differential cross-section measurements. The fiducial volume requires that both the jet and the muons from the Z boson decay are produced in the forward direction ($2.0<\eta<4.5$). The results show good agreement with theoretical predictions at the second-order expansion in the coupling of the strong interaction

Measurement of the B0s→μ+μ− Branching Fraction and Effective Lifetime and Search for B0→μ+μ− Decays

A search for the rare decays Bs0→μ+μ- and B0→μ+μ- is performed at the LHCb experiment using data collected in pp collisions corresponding to a total integrated luminosity of 4.4  fb-1. An excess of Bs0→μ+μ- decays is observed with a significance of 7.8 standard deviations, representing the first observation of this decay in a single experiment. The branching fraction is measured to be B(Bs0→μ+μ-)=(3.0±0.6-0.2+0.3)×10-9, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic. The first measurement of the Bs0→μ+μ- effective lifetime, τ(Bs0→μ+μ-)=2.04±0.44±0.05  ps, is reported. No significant excess of B0→μ+μ- decays is found, and a 95% confidence level upper limit, B(B0→μ+μ-)<3.4×10-10, is determined. All results are in agreement with the standard model expectations.A search for the rare decays $B^0_s\to\mu^+\mu^-$ and $B^0\to\mu^+\mu^-$ is performed at the LHCb experiment using data collected in $pp$ collisions corresponding to a total integrated luminosity of 4.4 fb$^{-1}$. An excess of $B^0_s\to\mu^+\mu^-$ decays is observed with a significance of 7.8 standard deviations, representing the first observation of this decay in a single experiment. The branching fraction is measured to be ${\cal B}(B^0_s\to\mu^+\mu^-)=\left(3.0\pm 0.6^{+0.3}_{-0.2}\right)\times 10^{-9}$, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic. The first measurement of the $B^0_s\to\mu^+\mu^-$ effective lifetime, $\tau(B^0_s\to\mu^+\mu^-)=2.04\pm 0.44\pm 0.05$ ps, is reported. No significant excess of $B^0\to\mu^+\mu^-$ decays is found and a 95 % confidence level upper limit, ${\cal B}(B^0\to\mu^+\mu^-)<3.4\times 10^{-10}$, is determined. All results are in agreement with the Standard Model expectations

Observation of the B0 → ρ0ρ0 decay from an amplitude analysis of B0 → (π+π−)(π+π−) decays

Proton–proton collision data recorded in 2011 and 2012 by the LHCb experiment, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3.0 fb−1 , are analysed to search for the charmless B0→ρ0ρ0 decay. More than 600 B0→(π+π−)(π+π−) signal decays are selected and used to perform an amplitude analysis, under the assumption of no CP violation in the decay, from which the B0→ρ0ρ0 decay is observed for the first time with 7.1 standard deviations significance. The fraction of B0→ρ0ρ0 decays yielding a longitudinally polarised final state is measured to be fL=0.745−0.058+0.048(stat)±0.034(syst) . The B0→ρ0ρ0 branching fraction, using the B0→ϕK⁎(892)0 decay as reference, is also reported as B(B0→ρ0ρ0)=(0.94±0.17(stat)±0.09(syst)±0.06(BF))×10−6