Firm finances, weather derivatives and geography

This paper considers some intellectual, practical and political dimensions of collaboration between human and physical geographers exploring how firms are using relatively new financial products – weather derivatives – to displace any costs of weather-related uncertainty and risk. The paper defines weather derivatives and indicates how they differ from weather insurance products before considering the geo-political, cultural and economic context for their creation. The paper concludes by reflecting on the challenges of research collaboration across the human–physical geography divide and suggests that while such initiatives may be undermined by a range of institutional and intellectual factors, conversations between physical and human geographers remain and are likely to become increasingly pertinent. The creation of a market in weather derivatives raises a host of urgent political and regulatory questions and the confluence of natural and social knowledges, co-existing within and through the geography academy, provides a constructive and creative basis from which to engage with this new market and wider discourses of uneven economic development and climate change

Personal traits predict conservationists’ optimism about outcomes for nature

In the face of unprecedented biodiversity loss, the belief that conservation goals can be met could play an important role in ensuring they are fulfilled. We asked conservationists how optimistic they felt about key biodiversity outcomes over the next 10 years; 2341 people familiar with conservation in 144 countries responded. Respondents expressed optimism that enabling conditions for conservation would improve but felt pressures would continue, and the state of biodiversity was unlikely to get better. Respondents with greater general optimism about life, at early-career stages, and working in practice and policy (compared to academia) reported higher conservation optimism. But most of our biodiversity and conservation status indicators were not associated with conservation optimism. Unbounded optimism without appropriate action would be misguided in the face of growing threats to biodiversity. However, supporting those struggling to see the light at the end of the tunnel could help sustain efforts to overcome these threats

Language and social/emotional problems identified at a universal developmental assessment at 30 months

Non peer reviewedPublisher PD

Student Engagement Guidelines: Learning from innovative practices introduced in response to COVID-19

This guidance document was produced as part of the Student Experience and Student Expectations in a post-pandemic teaching and learning environment Collaborative Enhancement Project. The team collected data from ten participating universities through a student survey and focus groups. As a result of the survey, they gathered important quantitative data on students’ perspectives on engagement. For example, participating students ranked the importance of 31 engagement criteria from ‘not at all’ to ‘extremely’ important, indicating their priorities for what they view as student engagement

Supporting children’s social and emotional well-being in the early years: an exploration of practitioners’ perceptions

Children’s social and emotional well-being can be supported through their experiences of early years education to promote positive life-long outcomes. This study explored the views of 10 early years practitioners in relation to supporting children’s social and emotional well-being. Data was gathered using semi-structured interviews and analysed using thematic analysis. Themes were explored in relation to practitioners’ understanding of ‘social and emotional well-being’ as well as their views on training opportunities in this area. The findings identified how early years practitioners conceptualize social and emotional well-being and highlighted the complexities and intricacies of the parent-practitioner relationship in the early years. The emotional well-being of staff was also pertinent to early years practitioners’ views. It is proposed that future research and practice focuses on opportunities for reflective discussions for early years staff and on the development of relationships

Anticipatory anti-colonial writing in R.K. Narayan's Swami and Friends and Mulk Raj Anand's Untouchable

This article uses the term “anticipatory anti-colonial writing” to discuss the workings of time in R.K. Narayan’s Swami and Friends and Mulk Raj Anand’s Untouchable. Both these first novels were published in 1935 with the support of British literary personalities (Graham Greene and E.M. Forster respectively) and both feature young protagonists who, in contrasting ways, are engaged in Indian resistance to colonial rule. This study examines the difference between Narayan’s local, though ironical, resistance to the homogenizing temporal demands of empire and Anand’s awkwardly modernist, socially committed vision. I argue that a form of anticipation that explicitly looks forward to decolonization via new and transnational literary forms is a crucial feature of Untouchable that is not found in Swami and Friends, despite the latter’s anti-colonial elements. Untouchable was intended to be a “bridge between the Ganges and the Thames” and anticipates postcolonial negotiations of time that critique global inequalities and rely upon the multidirectional global connections forged by modernism

The clinical presentation of culture-positive and culture-negative, qPCR-attributable shigellosis in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study and derivation of a Shigella severity score: implications for pediatric Shigella vaccine trials

BACKGROUND: Shigella is a leading cause of childhood diarrhea and target for vaccine development. Microbiologic and clinical case definitions are needed for pediatric field vaccine efficacy trials. METHODS: We compared characteristics of moderate to severe diarrhea (MSD) cases in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) between children with culture positive Shigella to those with culture-negative, qPCR-attributable Shigella (defined by an ipaH gene cycle threshold <27.9). Among Shigella MSD cases, we determined risk factors for death and derived a clinical severity score. RESULTS: Compared to culture-positive Shigella MSD cases (n=745), culture-negative/qPCR-attributable Shigella cases (n=852) were more likely to be under 12 months, stunted, have a longer duration of diarrhea, and less likely to have high stool frequency or a fever. There was no difference in dehydration, hospitalization, or severe classification from a modified Vesikari score. Twenty-two (1.8%) Shigella MSD cases died within the 14-days after presentation to health facilities, and 59.1% of these deaths were in culture-negative cases. Age < 12 months, diarrhea duration prior to presentation, vomiting, stunting, wasting, and hospitalization were associated with mortality. A model-derived score assigned points for dehydration, hospital admission, and longer diarrhea duration but was not significantly better at predicting 14-day mortality than a modified Vesikari score. CONCLUSIONS: A composite severity score consistent with severe disease or dysentery may be a pragmatic clinical endpoint for severe shigellosis in vaccine trials. Reliance on culture for microbiologic confirmation may miss a substantial number of Shigella cases but is currently required to measure serotype specific immunity

Do Adolescents Like School-Based Mindfulness Training? Predictors of Mindfulness Practice and Responsiveness in the MYRIAD Trial

Objective: We explored what predicts secondary school students’ mindfulness practice and responsiveness to universal school-based mindfulness training (SBMT), and how students experience SBMT. Method: A mixed-methods design was used. Participants were 4,232 students (11-13 years of age), in 43 UK secondary schools, who received universal SBMT (ie, “.b” program), within the MYRIAD trial (ISRCTN86619085). Following previous research, student, teacher, school, and implementation factors were evaluated as potential predictors of students’ out-of-school mindfulness practice and responsiveness (ie, interest in and attitudes toward SBMT), using mixed-effects linear regression. We explored pupils’ SBMT experiences using thematic content analysis of their answers to 2 free-response questions, 1 question focused on positive experiences and 1 question on difficulties/challenges. Results: Students reported practicing out-of-school mindfulness exercises on average once during the intervention (mean [SD] = 1.16 [1.07]; range, 0-5). Students’ average ratings of responsiveness were intermediate (mean [SD] = 4.72 [2.88]; range, 0-10). Girls reported more responsiveness. High risk of mental health problems was associated with lower responsiveness. Asian ethnicity and higher school-level economic deprivation were related to greater responsiveness. More SBMT sessions and better quality of delivery were associated with both greater mindfulness practice and responsiveness. In terms of students’ experiences of SBMT, the most frequent themes (60% of the minimally elaborated responses) were an increased awareness of bodily feelings/sensations and increased ability to regulate emotions. Conclusion: Most students did not engage with mindfulness practice. Although responsiveness to the SMBT was intermediate on average, there was substantial variation, with some youth rating it negatively and others rating it positively. Future SBMT developers should consider co-designing curricula with students, carefully assessing the student characteristics, aspects of the school environment, and implementation factors associated with mindfulness practice and responsiveness. SBMT teacher training is key, as more observed proficiency in SBMT teaching is associated with greater student mindfulness practice and responsiveness to SBMT

Characterising paediatric mortality during and after acute illness in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia: a secondary analysis of the CHAIN cohort using a machine learning approach

Background A better understanding of which children are likely to die during acute illness will help clinicians and policy makers target resources at the most vulnerable children. We used machine learning to characterise mortality in the 30-days following admission and the 180-days after discharge from nine hospitals in low and middle-income countries (LMIC). Methods A cohort of 3101 children aged 2–24 months were recruited at admission to hospital for any acute illness in Bangladesh (Dhaka and Matlab Hospitals), Pakistan (Civil Hospital Karachi), Kenya (Kilifi, Mbagathi, and Migori Hospitals), Uganda (Mulago Hospital), Malawi (Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital), and Burkina Faso (Banfora Hospital) from November 2016 to January 2019. To record mortality, children were observed during their hospitalisation and for 180 days post-discharge. Extreme gradient boosted models of death within 30 days of admission and mortality in the 180 days following discharge were built. Clusters of mortality sharing similar characteristics were identified from the models using Shapley additive values with spectral clustering. Findings Anthropometric and laboratory parameters were the most influential predictors of both 30-day and post-discharge mortality. No WHO/IMCI syndromes were among the 25 most influential mortality predictors of mortality. For 30-day mortality, two lower-risk clusters (N = 1915, 61%) included children with higher-than-average anthropometry (1% died, 95% CI: 0–2), and children without signs of severe illness (3% died, 95% CI: 2–4%). The two highest risk 30-day mortality clusters (N = 118, 4%) were characterised by high urea and creatinine (70% died, 95% CI: 62–82%); and nutritional oedema with low platelets and reduced consciousness (97% died, 95% CI: 92–100%). For post-discharge mortality risk, two low-risk clusters (N = 1753, 61%) were defined by higher-than-average anthropometry (0% died, 95% CI: 0–1%), and gastroenteritis with lower-than-average anthropometry and without major laboratory abnormalities (0% died, 95% CI: 0–1%). Two highest risk post-discharge clusters (N = 267, 9%) included children leaving against medical advice (30% died, 95% CI: 25–37%), and severely-low anthropometry with signs of illness at discharge (46% died, 95% CI: 34–62%). Interpretation WHO clinical syndromes are not sufficient at predicting risk. Integrating basic laboratory features such as urea, creatinine, red blood cell, lymphocyte and platelet counts into guidelines may strengthen efforts to identify high-risk children during paediatric hospitalisations. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation OPP1131320