Effect of secular trends on age-related trajectories of cardiovascular risk factors: the Whitehall II longitudinal study 1985-2009

BACKGROUND:: Secular trends in cardiovascular risk factors have been described, but few studies have examined simultaneously the effects of both ageing and secular trends within the same cohort. METHODS:: Development of cardiovascular risk factors over the past three decades was analysed using serial measurements from 10 308 participants aged from 35 to 80 years over 25 years of follow-up from five clinical examination phases of the Whitehall II study. Changes of body mass index, waist circumference, blood pressure and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol distribution characteristics were analysed with quantile regression models in the 57-61 age group. Age-related trajectories of risk factors were assessed by fitting mixed-effects models with adjustment for year of birth to reveal secular trends. RESULTS:: Average body mass index and waist circumference increased faster with age in women than in men, but the unfavourable secular trend was more marked in men. Distributions showed a fattening of the right tail in each consecutive phase, meaning a stronger increase in higher percentiles. Despite the higher obesity levels in younger birth cohorts, total cholesterol decreased markedly in the 57-61 age group along the entire distribution rather than in higher extremes only. CONCLUSION:: The past three decades brought strong and heterogeneous changes in cardiovascular risk factor distributions. Secular trends appear to modify age-related trajectories of cardiovascular risk factors, which may be a source of bias in longitudinal analyses

Addictive Behaviour of Adolescents in Secondary Schools in Hungary

Objective: To investigate drug use among secondary schoolchildren aged 14 - 18 years in the city of Szeged in Hungary in order to observe and describe drug use, smoking and alcohol intake and to find risk factors for these behaviours. Methods: The questionnaire was concerned with recreational drug use, smoking and drinking habits as well as family structure and life-style based upon the European School Project on Alcohol and Other Drugs questionnaire. Statistical methods used were the chi(2) test and multiple logistic regression analysis. The standard errors were estimated using the Huber-White procedure. Results: Overall 20% of schoolchildren reported experience of drug usage. Boys were significantly more likely to report drug use than girls ( chi(2) = 4.65; p = 0.031). Cannabis was the most commonly reported drug used (96%). The proportion of drug users was significantly higher among those who had smoked (13%) or were current smokers (65%) compared to those who never smoked (1%; chi(2) = 164.7; p < 0.001). Moreover, the risk of drug use was significantly higher in those children who reported a drug user in the family (OR 9.3; 95% CI 4.3 - 19.9; p < 0.001). Conclusions: Our findings support the hypothesis that strategies for the prevention of drug use should consider the association between drug and tobacco use

Heterogeneous effect of gestational weight gain on birth weight: quantile regression analysis from a population-based screening

PURPOSE: Classical regression models might give an incomplete picture of the associations between predictors and outcomes. We investigated associations between gestational weight gain (GWG) and birth weight along the entire birth weight distribution with quantile regression and estimated effects of hypothetical prevention strategies. METHODS: The GWG-birth weight association was analyzed using quantile and classical regression models on data from a population-based gestational diabetes screening (n = 4760) at the Szent Imre Teaching Hospital in Budapest, Hungary (2002-2005). Birth weight distributions were modeled based on hypothetical GWG changes. RESULTS: At a body mass index of 20 kg/m(2), a 1-kg difference in GWG was associated with a 14.2 g (95% confidence interval, 10.0-20.9) higher birth weight at the fifth percentile of the birth weight distribution and a 29.0 g (21.3-35.6) higher birth weight at the 95th percentile. The coefficient from linear regression was 20.7 (17.5-24.0). Estimates differed modestly between the two regressions at a body mass index of 30 kg/m(2). A population-wide 2-kg decrease in GWG would rather affect the risk of macrosomia (-1.8%) than that of low birth weight (+0.4%). In contrast, a 3-kg decrease in GWG among overweight and obese women would lower macrosomia more modestly (-0.8%). CONCLUSIONS: A population-wide lowering of GWG would lead to greater improvements in the right tail of the birth weight distribution

ONEST (Observers Needed to Evaluate Subjective Tests) Analysis of Stromal Tumour-Infiltrating Lymphocytes (sTILs) in Breast Cancer and Its Limitations.

Peer reviewed: TrueTumour-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) reflect antitumour immunity. Their evaluation of histopathology specimens is influenced by several factors and is subject to issues of reproducibility. ONEST (Observers Needed to Evaluate Subjective Tests) helps in determining the number of observers that would be sufficient for the reliable estimation of inter-observer agreement of TIL categorisation. This has not been explored previously in relation to TILs. ONEST analyses, using an open-source software developed by the first author, were performed on TIL quantification in breast cancers taken from two previous studies. These were one reproducibility study involving 49 breast cancers, 23 in the first circulation and 14 pathologists in the second circulation, and one study involving 100 cases and 9 pathologists. In addition to the estimates of the number of observers required, other factors influencing the results of ONEST were examined. The analyses reveal that between six and nine observers (range 2-11) are most commonly needed to give a robust estimate of reproducibility. In addition, the number and experience of observers, the distribution of values around or away from the extremes, and outliers in the classification also influence the results. Due to the simplicity and the potentially relevant information it may give, we propose ONEST to be a part of new reproducibility analyses

ONEST (Observers Needed to Evaluate Subjective Tests) Analysis of Stromal Tumour-Infiltrating Lymphocytes (sTILs) in Breast Cancer and Its Limitations

Tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) reflect antitumour immunity. Their evaluation of histopathology specimens is influenced by several factors and is subject to issues of reproducibility. ONEST (Observers Needed to Evaluate Subjective Tests) helps in determining the number of observers that would be sufficient for the reliable estimation of inter-observer agreement of TIL categorisation. This has not been explored previously in relation to TILs. ONEST analyses, using an open-source software developed by the first author, were performed on TIL quantification in breast cancers taken from two previous studies. These were one reproducibility study involving 49 breast cancers, 23 in the first circulation and 14 pathologists in the second circulation, and one study involving 100 cases and 9 pathologists. In addition to the estimates of the number of observers required, other factors influencing the results of ONEST were examined. The analyses reveal that between six and nine observers (range 2–11) are most commonly needed to give a robust estimate of reproducibility. In addition, the number and experience of observers, the distribution of values around or away from the extremes, and outliers in the classification also influence the results. Due to the simplicity and the potentially relevant information it may give, we propose ONEST to be a part of new reproducibility analyses

ONEST (Observers Needed to Evaluate Subjective Tests) Analysis of Stromal Tumour-Infiltrating Lymphocytes (sTILs) in Breast Cancer and Its Limitations.

Tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) reflect antitumour immunity. Their evaluation of histopathology specimens is influenced by several factors and is subject to issues of reproducibility. ONEST (Observers Needed to Evaluate Subjective Tests) helps in determining the number of observers that would be sufficient for the reliable estimation of inter-observer agreement of TIL categorisation. This has not been explored previously in relation to TILs. ONEST analyses, using an open-source software developed by the first author, were performed on TIL quantification in breast cancers taken from two previous studies. These were one reproducibility study involving 49 breast cancers, 23 in the first circulation and 14 pathologists in the second circulation, and one study involving 100 cases and 9 pathologists. In addition to the estimates of the number of observers required, other factors influencing the results of ONEST were examined. The analyses reveal that between six and nine observers (range 2-11) are most commonly needed to give a robust estimate of reproducibility. In addition, the number and experience of observers, the distribution of values around or away from the extremes, and outliers in the classification also influence the results. Due to the simplicity and the potentially relevant information it may give, we propose ONEST to be a part of new reproducibility analyses