Using machine learning to guide targeted and locally-tailored empiric antibiotic prescribing in a children's hospital in Cambodia [version 1; referees: 2 approved]

Background: Early and appropriate empiric antibiotic treatment of patients suspected of having sepsis is associated with reduced mortality. The increasing prevalence of antimicrobial resistance reduces the efficacy of empiric therapy guidelines derived from population data. This problem is particularly severe for children in developing country settings. We hypothesized that by applying machine learning approaches to readily collect patient data, it would be possible to obtain individualized predictions for targeted empiric antibiotic choices. Methods and Findings: We analysed blood culture data collected from a 100-bed children's hospital in North-West Cambodia between February 2013 and January 2016. Clinical, demographic and living condition information was captured with 35 independent variables. Using these variables, we used a suite of machine learning algorithms to predict Gram stains and whether bacterial pathogens could be treated with common empiric antibiotic regimens: i) ampicillin and gentamicin; ii) ceftriaxone; iii) none of the above. 243 patients with bloodstream infections were available for analysis. We found that the random forest method had the best predictive performance overall as assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The random forest method gave an AUC of 0.80 (95%CI 0.66-0.94) for predicting susceptibility to ceftriaxone, 0.74 (0.59-0.89) for susceptibility to ampicillin and gentamicin, 0.85 (0.70-1.00) for susceptibility to neither, and 0.71 (0.57-0.86) for Gram stain result. Most important variables for predicting susceptibility were time from admission to blood culture, patient age, hospital versus community-acquired infection, and age-adjusted weight score. Conclusions: Applying machine learning algorithms to patient data that are readily available even in resource-limited hospital settings can provide highly informative predictions on antibiotic susceptibilities to guide appropriate empiric antibiotic therapy. When used as a decision support tool, such approaches have the potential to improve targeting of empiric therapy, patient outcomes and reduce the burden of antimicrobial resistance

National burden of influenza-associated hospitalizations in Cambodia, 2015 and 2016

The burden of influenza in Cambodia is not well known, but it would be useful for understanding the impact of seasonal epidemics and pandemics and to design appropriate policies for influenza prevention and control. The severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) surveillance system in Cambodia was used to estimate the national burden of SARI hospitalizations in Cambodia.This work was financially supported by the World Health Organization Pandemic and Epidemic Diseases grant for Burden of Disease studies HQPED1611421. The Melbourne WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza is supported by the Australian Government Department of Health. The corresponding author was supported by an Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship

Climatic drivers of melioidosis in Laos and Cambodia: a 16-year case series analysis

Background: Burkholderia pseudomallei is the cause of melioidosis, a serious and difficult to treat infection that is endemic throughout the tropics. Melioidosis incidence is highly seasonal. We aimed to identify the climatic drivers of infection and to shed light on modes of transmission and potential preventive strategies. Methods: We examined the records of patients diagnosed with melioidosis at the Microbiology Laboratory of Mahosot Hospital in Vientiane, Laos, between October, 1999, and August, 2015, and all patients with culture-confirmed melioidosis presenting to the Angkor Hospital for Children in Siem Reap, Cambodia, between February, 2009, and December, 2013. We also examined local temperature, humidity, precipitation, visibility, and wind data for the corresponding time periods. We estimated the B pseudomallei incubation period by examining profile likelihoods for hypothetical exposure-to-presentation delays. Findings: 870 patients were diagnosed with melioidosis in Laos and 173 patients were diagnosed with melioidosis in Cambodia during the study periods. Melioidosis cases were significantly associated with humidity (p<0·0001), low visibility (p<0·0001), and maximum wind speeds (p<0·0001) in Laos, and humidity (p=0·010), rainy days (p=0·015), and maximum wind speed (p=0·0070) in Cambodia. Compared with adults, children were at significantly higher odds of infection during highly humid months (odds ratio 2·79, 95% CI 1·83–4·26). Lung and disseminated infections were more common during windy months. The maximum likelihood estimate of the incubation period was 1 week (95% CI 0–2). Interpretation: The results of this study demonstrate a significant seasonal burden of melioidosis among adults and children in Laos and Cambodia. Our findings highlight the risks of infection during highly humid and windy conditions, and suggest a need for increased awareness among at-risk individuals, such as children

Climatic drivers of melioidosis in Laos and Cambodia: a 16-year case series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Burkholderia pseudomallei is the cause of melioidosis, a serious and difficult to treat infection that is endemic throughout the tropics. Melioidosis incidence is highly seasonal. We aimed to identify the climatic drivers of infection and to shed light on modes of transmission and potential preventive strategies. METHODS: We examined the records of patients diagnosed with melioidosis at the Microbiology Laboratory of Mahosot Hospital in Vientiane, Laos, between October, 1999, and August, 2015, and all patients with culture-confirmed melioidosis presenting to the Angkor Hospital for Children in Siem Reap, Cambodia, between February, 2009, and December, 2013. We also examined local temperature, humidity, precipitation, visibility, and wind data for the corresponding time periods. We estimated the B pseudomallei incubation period by examining profile likelihoods for hypothetical exposure-to-presentation delays. FINDINGS: 870 patients were diagnosed with melioidosis in Laos and 173 patients were diagnosed with melioidosis in Cambodia during the study periods. Melioidosis cases were significantly associated with humidity (p<0·0001), low visibility (p<0·0001), and maximum wind speeds (p<0·0001) in Laos, and humidity (p=0·010), rainy days (p=0·015), and maximum wind speed (p=0·0070) in Cambodia. Compared with adults, children were at significantly higher odds of infection during highly humid months (odds ratio 2·79, 95% CI 1·83-4·26). Lung and disseminated infections were more common during windy months. The maximum likelihood estimate of the incubation period was 1 week (95% CI 0-2). INTERPRETATION: The results of this study demonstrate a significant seasonal burden of melioidosis among adults and children in Laos and Cambodia. Our findings highlight the risks of infection during highly humid and windy conditions, and suggest a need for increased awareness among at-risk individuals, such as children. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust

Climatic drivers of melioidosis in Laos and Cambodia: a 16-year case series analysis

Background: Burkholderia pseudomallei is the cause of melioidosis, a serious and difficult to treat infection that is endemic throughout the tropics. Melioidosis incidence is highly seasonal. We aimed to identify the climatic drivers of infection and to shed light on modes of transmission and potential preventive strategies. Methods: We examined the records of patients diagnosed with melioidosis at the Microbiology Laboratory of Mahosot Hospital in Vientiane, Laos, between October, 1999, and August, 2015, and all patients with culture-confirmed melioidosis presenting to the Angkor Hospital for Children in Siem Reap, Cambodia, between February, 2009, and December, 2013. We also examined local temperature, humidity, precipitation, visibility, and wind data for the corresponding time periods. We estimated the B pseudomallei incubation period by examining profile likelihoods for hypothetical exposure-to-presentation delays. Findings: 870 patients were diagnosed with melioidosis in Laos and 173 patients were diagnosed with melioidosis in Cambodia during the study periods. Melioidosis cases were significantly associated with humidity (p<0·0001), low visibility (p<0·0001), and maximum wind speeds (p<0·0001) in Laos, and humidity (p=0·010), rainy days (p=0·015), and maximum wind speed (p=0·0070) in Cambodia. Compared with adults, children were at significantly higher odds of infection during highly humid months (odds ratio 2·79, 95% CI 1·83–4·26). Lung and disseminated infections were more common during windy months. The maximum likelihood estimate of the incubation period was 1 week (95% CI 0–2). Interpretation: The results of this study demonstrate a significant seasonal burden of melioidosis among adults and children in Laos and Cambodia. Our findings highlight the risks of infection during highly humid and windy conditions, and suggest a need for increased awareness among at-risk individuals, such as children

Antimicrobial Resistance in Invasive Bacterial Infections in Hospitalized Children, Cambodia, 2007-2016.

To determine trends, mortality rates, and costs of antimicrobial resistance in invasive bacterial infections in hospitalized children, we analyzed data from Angkor Hospital for Children, Siem Reap, Cambodia, for 2007-2016. A total of 39,050 cultures yielded 1,341 target pathogens. Resistance rates were high; 82% each of Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates were multidrug resistant. Hospital-acquired isolates were more often resistant than community-acquired isolates; resistance trends over time were heterogeneous. K. pneumoniae isolates from neonates were more likely than those from nonneonates to be resistant to ampicillin-gentamicin and third-generation cephalosporins. In patients with community-acquired gram-negative bacteremia, third-generation cephalosporin resistance was associated with increased mortality rates, increased intensive care unit admissions, and 2.26-fold increased healthcare costs among survivors. High antimicrobial resistance in this setting is a threat to human life and the economy. In similar low-resource settings, our methods could be reproduced as a robust surveillance model for antimicrobial resistance

Genomic surveillance for hypervirulence and multi-drug resistance in invasive Klebsiella pneumoniae from South and Southeast Asia

Abstract: Background: Klebsiella pneumoniae is a leading cause of bloodstream infection (BSI). Strains producing extended-spectrum beta-lactamases (ESBLs) or carbapenemases are considered global priority pathogens for which new treatment and prevention strategies are urgently required, due to severely limited therapeutic options. South and Southeast Asia are major hubs for antimicrobial-resistant (AMR) K. pneumoniae and also for the characteristically antimicrobial-sensitive, community-acquired “hypervirulent” strains. The emergence of hypervirulent AMR strains and lack of data on exopolysaccharide diversity pose a challenge for K. pneumoniae BSI control strategies worldwide. Methods: We conducted a retrospective genomic epidemiology study of 365 BSI K. pneumoniae from seven major healthcare facilities across South and Southeast Asia, extracting clinically relevant information (AMR, virulence, K and O antigen loci) using Kleborate, a K. pneumoniae-specific genomic typing tool. Results: K. pneumoniae BSI isolates were highly diverse, comprising 120 multi-locus sequence types (STs) and 63 K-loci. ESBL and carbapenemase gene frequencies were 47% and 17%, respectively. The aerobactin synthesis locus (iuc), associated with hypervirulence, was detected in 28% of isolates. Importantly, 7% of isolates harboured iuc plus ESBL and/or carbapenemase genes. The latter represent genotypic AMR-virulence convergence, which is generally considered a rare phenomenon but was particularly common among South Asian BSI (17%). Of greatest concern, we identified seven novel plasmids carrying both iuc and AMR genes, raising the prospect of co-transfer of these phenotypes among K. pneumoniae. Conclusions: K. pneumoniae BSI in South and Southeast Asia are caused by different STs from those predominating in other regions, and with higher frequency of acquired virulence determinants. K. pneumoniae carrying both iuc and AMR genes were also detected at higher rates than have been reported elsewhere. The study demonstrates how genomics-based surveillance—reporting full molecular profiles including STs, AMR, virulence and serotype locus information—can help standardise comparisons between sites and identify regional differences in pathogen populations

Prospective surveillance of healthcare associated infections in a Cambodian pediatric hospital

Abstract Background Healthcare associated infections (HAI) are the most common preventable adverse events following admission to healthcare facilities. Data from low-income countries are scarce. We sought to prospectively define HAI incidence at Angkor Hospital for Children (AHC), a Cambodian pediatric referral hospital. Methods Prospective HAI surveillance was introduced for medical admissions to AHC. Cases were identified on daily ward rounds and confirmed using locally adapted Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) definitions. During the surveillance period, established infection prevention and control (IPC) activities continued, including hand hygiene surveillance. In addition, antimicrobial stewardship practices such as the creation of an antimicrobial guideline smartphone app were introduced. Results Between 1st January and 31st December 2015 there were 3,263 medical admissions and 102 HAI cases. The incidence of HAI was 4.6/1,000 patient-days (95% confidence interval 3.8\u20135.6) and rates were highest amongst neonates. Median length of stay was significantly longer in HAI cases: 25\ua0days versus 5\ua0days for non-HAI cases ( p \u2009<\u20090.0001). All-cause in-hospital mortality increased from 2.0 to 16.1% with HAI ( p \u2009<\u20090.0001). Respiratory infections were the most common HAI (54/102; 52.9%). Amongst culture positive infections, Gram-negative organisms predominated (13/16; 81.3%). Resistance to third generation cephalosporins was common, supporting the use of more expensive carbapenem drugs empirically in HAI cases. The total cost of treatment for all 102 HCAI cases combined, based on additional inpatient days, was estimated to be $299,608. Conclusions Prospective HAI surveillance can form part of routine practice in low-income healthcare settings. HAI incidence at AHC was relatively low, but human and financial costs remained high due to increased carbapenem use, prolonged admissions and higher mortality rates

Pneumococcal Infection among Children before Introduction of 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine, Cambodia

Vaccination of children with pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) was initiated in Cambodia in 2015. To determine baseline data, we collected samples from children in 2013 and 2014. PCV13 serotypes accounted for 62.7% of colonizing organisms in outpatients and 88.4% of invasive pneumococci overall; multidrug resistance was common. Thus, effectiveness of vaccination should be high