Choosing the observational likelihood in state-space stock assessment models

Data used in stock assessment models result from combinations of biological, ecological, fishery, and sampling processes. Since different types of errors propagate through these processes it can be difficult to identify a particular family of distributions for modelling errors on observations a priori. By implementing several observational likelihoods, modelling both numbers- and proportions-at-age, in an age based state-space stock assessment model, we compare the model fit for each choice of likelihood along with the implications for spawning stock biomass and average fishing mortality. We propose using AIC intervals based on fitting the full observational model for comparing different observational likelihoods. Using data from four stocks, we show that the model fit is improved by modelling the correlation of observations within years. However, the best choice of observational likelihood differs for different stocks, and the choice is important for the short-term conclusions drawn from the assessment model; in particular, the choice can influence total allowable catch advise based on reference points.Comment: To be published in Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Science

Positioning of aquatic animals based on time-of-arrival and random walk models using YAPS (Yet Another Positioning Solver)

Aquatic positional telemetry offers vast opportunities to study in vivo behaviour of wild animals, but there is room for improvement in the data quality provided by current procedures for estimating positions. Here we present a novel positioning method called YAPS (Yet Another Positioning Solver), involving Maximum Likelihood analysis of a state-space model applied directly to time of arrival (TOA) data in combination with a movement model. YAPS avoids the sequential positioning-filteringapproach applied in alternative tools by using all available data in a single model, and offers better accuracy and error control. Feasibility and performance of YAPS was rigorously tested in a simulation study and by applying YAPS to data from an acoustic transmitter towed in a receiver array. Performance was compared to an alternative positioning model and proprietary software. The simulation study and field test revealed that YAPS performance was better and more consistent than alternatives. We conclude that YAPS outperformed the compared alternative methods, and that YAPS constitute a vast improvement to currently available positioning software in acoustic telemetry. Additionally, in contrast to vendor-supplied solutions, YAPS is transparent, flexible and can easily be adapted and extended for further improvements or to meet study specific requirements such as three-dimensional positioning.publishedVersio