Regional-scale chemical transport modeling in support of the analysis of observations obtained during the TRACE-P experiment

Data obtained during the TRACE-P experiment is used to evaluate how well the CFORS/STEM-2K1 regional-scale chemical transport model is able to represent the aircraft observations. Thirty-one calculated trace gas and aerosol parameters are presented and compared to the in situ data. The regional model is shown to accurately predict many of the important features observed. The mean values of all the model parameters in the lowest 1 km are predicted within ±30% of the observed values. The correlation coefficients (R) for the meteorological parameters are found to be higher than those for the trace species. For example, for temperature, R \u3e 0.98. Among the trace species, ethane, propane, and ozone show the highest values (0.8 \u3c R \u3c 0.9), followed by CO, SO2, and NOy, NO and NO2 had the lowest values (R \u3c 0.4). Analyses of pollutant transport into the Yellow Sea by frontal events are presented and illustrate the complex nature of outflow. Biomass burning from SE Asia is transported in the warm conveyor belt at altitudes above ∼2 km and at latitudes below 30N. Outflow of pollution emitted along the east coast of China in the postfrontal regions is typically confined to the lower ∼2 km and results in high concentrations with plume-like features in the Yellow Sea. During these situations the model underpredicts CO and black carbon (among other species). An analysis of ozone production in this region is also presented. In and around the highly industrialized regions of East Asia, where fossil fuel usage dominates, ozone is NMHC-limited. South of ∼30-35N, ozone production is NOx-limited, reflecting the high NMHC/NOx ratios due to the large contributions to the emissions from biomass burning, biogenics sources, and biofuel usage in central China and SE Asia. Copyright 2003 by the American Geophysical Union

Combination Forecasts of Bond and Stock Returns: An Asset Allocation Perspective

We investigate the out-of-sample forecasting ability of the HML, SMB, momentum, short-term and long-term reversal factors along with their size and value decompositions on U.S. bond and stock returns for a variety of horizons ranging from the short run (1 month) to the long run (2 years). Our findings suggest that these factors contain significantly more information for future bond and stock market returns than the typically employed financial variables. Combination of forecasts of the empirical factors turns out to be particularly successful, especially from an an asset allocation perspective. Similar findings pertain to the European and Japanese markets

Rating of Perceived Exertion, Average Heart Rate, and Energy Expenditure Following Indoor and Outdoor Moderately Heavy Superset Resistance Training

Our lab recently found that light intensity circuit resistance training outdoors had a significantly lower perception of effort (RPE) compared to indoor resistance training, despite no physiological differences in heart rate and energy expenditure. However, no study has examined other intensities or set schemes in differing environmental settings. PURPOSE: To determine how indoor or outdoor environments effect rating of perceived exertion (RPE) following light and moderately heavy intensity superset resistance training in recreationally resistance trained adults. METHODS: Twenty-three adult participants completed this study (n=10 female, n=13 male; age: 26.1±8.8 yrs; height: 172.2±9.5 cm; mass: 73.4±18.7 kg; RT experience: 5.3±4.8 yrs). Participants wore devices to measure heart rate (Polar H10 chest strap) and energy expenditure (Cosmed K5 Portable Metabolic Cart). Randomly in indoor and outdoor settings, participants completed 4 supersets of the reverse lunge and shoulder press exercises using dumbbells at a light (2 sets) and moderately heavy (2 sets) intensity with 1 superset of 6 repetitions per exercise (12 repetitions per superset) and 1 min rest between supersets. The OMNI Rating of Perceived Exertion Scale for Resistance Exercise 0-10 RPE scale was used following each superset. A paired T-test was used to determine differences between environmental setting (pRESULTS: No significant differences were observed between indoor and outdoor environments for average heart rate (129.4±17.2 and 127.8±23.3 bpm, p=0.67), energy expenditure (30.6±11.5 and 28.3±9.9 kcals; p=0.06), as well as RPE during light intensity (2.9±0.9 and 2.9±0.8 arbitrary units/AU’s, p=0.70) and moderately heavy intensity (6.5±1.7 and 6.3±1.5 AU’s, p=0.27) supersets. CONCLUSION: In recreationally resistance trained adults, light intensity and moderately heavy intensity superset resistance training in indoor or outdoor settings does not alter heart rate, energy expenditure, or perceived effort

Leftward Lateralization of Auditory Cortex Underlies Holistic Sound Perception in Williams Syndrome

BACKGROUND: Individuals with the rare genetic disorder Williams-Beuren syndrome (WS) are known for their characteristic auditory phenotype including strong affinity to music and sounds. In this work we attempted to pinpoint a neural substrate for the characteristic musicality in WS individuals by studying the structure-function relationship of their auditory cortex. Since WS subjects had only minor musical training due to psychomotor constraints we hypothesized that any changes compared to the control group would reflect the contribution of genetic factors to auditory processing and musicality. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using psychoacoustics, magnetoencephalography and magnetic resonance imaging, we show that WS individuals exhibit extreme and almost exclusive holistic sound perception, which stands in marked contrast to the even distribution of this trait in the general population. Functionally, this was reflected by increased amplitudes of left auditory evoked fields. On the structural level, volume of the left auditory cortex was 2.2-fold increased in WS subjects as compared to control subjects. Equivalent volumes of the auditory cortex have been previously reported for professional musicians. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: There has been an ongoing debate in the neuroscience community as to whether increased gray matter of the auditory cortex in musicians is attributable to the amount of training or innate disposition. In this study musical education of WS subjects was negligible and control subjects were carefully matched for this parameter. Therefore our results not only unravel the neural substrate for this particular auditory phenotype, but in addition propose WS as a unique genetic model for training-independent auditory system properties

How the Fed Reanimated Wall Street: The Low and Extended Lending Rates that Revived the Big Banks

Walter Bagehot's putative principles of lending in liquidity crises - to lend freely to solvent banks with good collateral but at penalty rates - have served as a theoretical basis for thinking about the lender of last resort for close to 100 years, while simultaneously providing justification for central bank real-world intervention. If we presume Bagehot's principles to be both sound and adhered to by central bankers, we would expect to find the lending by the Fed during the global financial crisis in line with such policies. Taking Bagehot's principles at face value, this paper aims to examine one of these principles - central bank lending at penalty rates - and to determine whether it did in fact conform to this standard. A comprehensive analysis of these rates has revealed that the Fed did not, in actuality, follow Bagehot's classical doctrine. Consequently, the intervention not only generated moral hazard but also set the stage for another crisis. This working paper is part of the Ford Foundation project A Research and Policy Dialogue Project on Improving Governance of the Government Safety Net in Financial Crisis and continues the investigation of the Fed's bailout of the financial system - the most comprehensive study of the raw data to date

A comparison of specialist rehabilitation and care assistant support with specialist rehabilitation alone and usual care for people with Parkinson's living in the community: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Parkinson's Disease is a degenerative neurological condition that causes movement problems and other distressing symptoms. People with Parkinson's disease gradually lose their independence and strain is placed on family members. A multidisciplinary approach to rehabilitation for people with Parkinson's is recommended but has not been widely researched. Studies are needed that investigate cost-effective community-based service delivery models to reduce disability and dependency and admission to long term care, and improve quality of life.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A pragmatic three parallel group randomised controlled trial involving people with Parkinson's Disease and live-in carers (family friends or paid carers), and comparing: management by a specialist multidisciplinary team for six weeks, according to a care plan agreed between the professionals and the patient and carer (Group A); multidisciplinary team management and additional support for four months from a trained care assistant (Group B); usual care, no coordinated team care planning or ongoing support (Group C). Follow up will be for six months to determine the impact and relative cost-effectiveness of the two interventions, compared to usual care. The primary outcomes are disability (patients) and strain (carers). Secondary outcomes include patient mobility, falls, speech, pain, self efficacy, health and social care use; carer general health; patient and carer social functioning, psychological wellbeing, health related quality of life. Semi structured interviews will be undertaken with providers (team members, care assistants), service commissioners, and patients and carers in groups A and B, to gain feedback about the acceptability of the interventions. A cost - effectiveness evaluation is embedded in the trial.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The trial investigates components of recent national policy recommendations for people with long term conditions, and Parkinson's Disease in particular, and will provide guidance to inform local service planning and commissioning.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>ISRCTN: <a href="http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN44577970">ISRCTN44577970</a></p

Novel measures of cardiovascular health and its association with prevalence and progression of age-related macular degeneration: the CHARM study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To determine if novel measures of cardiovascular health are associated with prevalence or progression of age-related macular degeneration (AMD).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Measures of the cardiovascular system: included intima media thickness (IMT), pulse wave velocity (PWV), systemic arterial compliance (SAC), carotid augmentation index (AI). For the prevalence study, hospital-based AMD cases and population-based age- and gender-matched controls with no signs of AMD in either eye were enrolled. For the progression component, participants with early AMD were recruited from two previous studies; cases were defined as progression in one or both eyes and controls were defined as no progression in either eye.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>160 cases and 160 controls were included in the prevalence component. The upper two quartiles of SAC, implying good cardiovascular health, were significantly associated with increased risk of AMD (OR = 2.54, 95% CL = 1.29, 4.99). High PWV was associated with increased prevalent AMD. Progression was observed in 82 (32.3%) of the 254 subjects recruited for the progression component. Higher AI (worse cardiovascular function) was protective for AMD progression (OR = 0.30, 95%CL = 0.13, 0.69). Higher aortic PWV was associated with increased risk of AMD progression; the highest risk was seen with the second lowest velocity (OR = 6.22, 95% CL = 2.35, 16.46).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results were unexpected in that better cardiovascular health was associated with increased risk of prevalent AMD and progression. Inconsistent findings between the prevalence and progression components could be due to truly different disease etiologies or to spurious findings, as can occur with inherent biases in case control studies of prevalence. Further investigation of these non-invasive methods of characterizing the cardiovascular system should be undertaken as they may help to further elucidate the role of the cardiovascular system in the etiology of prevalent AMD and progression.</p

Market Liquidity, Investor Participation and Managerial Autonomy: Why Do Firms Go Private?

We analyze a publicly-traded firm's decision to stay public or go private when managerial autonomy from shareholder intervention affects the supply of productive inputs by management. We show that both the advantage and the disadvantage of public ownership relative to private ownership lie in the liquidity of public ownership. While the liquidity of public ownership lets shareholders trade easily and supply capital at a lower cost, the liquidity-engendered trading also results in stochastic shocks to a firm's shareholder base. This exposes management to uncertainty regarding the identity of future shareholders and their extent of intervention in management decisions and in turn curtails managerial incentives. By contrast, because of its illiquidity, private ownership provides a stable shareholder base and improves these inputprovision incentives but results in a higher cost of capital. Thus, capital market liquidity, while being a principal advantage of public ownership, also has a surprising 'dark side' that discourages public ownership. Our model takes seriously a key difference between private and public equity markets in that, unlike the private market, the firm's shareholder base, namely the extent of investor participation, is stochastic in the public market. This allows us to extract predictions about the effects of investor participation on the stock price level and volatility and on the public firm's incentives to go private, thereby providing a link between investor participation and firm participation in public markets. Lesser investor participation induces lower and more volatile stock prices, encouraging public firms to go private, whereas greater investor participation encourages younger firms to go public. Moreover, IPO underpricing is optimal because it is shown to lead to a higher and less volatile post-IPO stock price, greater autonomy for the manager and a higher supply of privately-costly managerial inputs