Mesoscale variability of free tropospheric humidity near San Nicolas Island during FIRE

Humidity variability at the top of the marine boundary layer (MBL) and in the free troposphere was examined using a variety of measurements taken on and around San Nicolas Island (SNI) during the FIRE IFO in July, 1987. Doppler wind profiler reflectivity recorded at two minute time resolution has provided the most continuous record and detail of small scale humidity fluctuations. Rawinsonde data were available from both an island site and the research vessel Point Sur. The information extractable from these sources is somewhat limited due to the frequency of launches (3 to 4/day at SNI and 6/day on the Point Sur). Some additional data were available from instrumented aircraft although scheduling flights in the neighborhood of the island was difficult due to restrictions on the air space. Other relevant data were collected at SNI near the radar and rawinsonde launch sites. A continuous record of cloud base altitude was logged by a ceilometer. Doppler acoustic sounder (sodar) reflectivity data provided a good record of inversion height. The sodar also monitored turbulent temperature fluctuations in the MBL. A small ground station recorded hourly averages of solar irradiance and downward longwave irradiance. The analysis in progress of the various data sets for two adjacent two day periods from 11 July to 14 July is described. The earlier period was chosen because the marine inversion was unusually high and there was increased frequency of rawinsonde launches at SNI. The later period was chosen because of the significant descent with time of an elevated inversion indicated by the radar data. Throughout the four day period, but especially in the first half, the turbulent humidity structure calculated from Doppler radar reflectivity shows excellent agreement with humidity profiles evaluated from rawinsonde data

Knowledge of Objective 'Oughts': Monotonicity and the New Miners Puzzle

In the classic Miners case, an agent subjectively ought to do what they know is objectively wrong. This case shows that the subjective and objective ‘oughts’ are somewhat independent. But there remains a powerful intuition that the guidance of objective ‘oughts’ is more authoritative—so long as we know what they tell us. We argue that this intuition must be given up in light of a monotonicity principle, which undercuts the rationale for saying that objective ‘oughts’ are an authoritative guide for agents and advisors

Quantum Analogue Computing

We briefly review what a quantum computer is, what it promises to do for us, and why it is so hard to build one. Among the first applications anticipated to bear fruit is quantum simulation of quantum systems. While most quantum computation is an extension of classical digital computation, quantum simulation differs fundamentally in how the data is encoded in the quantum computer. To perform a quantum simulation, the Hilbert space of the system to be simulated is mapped directly onto the Hilbert space of the (logical) qubits in the quantum computer. This type of direct correspondence is how data is encoded in a classical analogue computer. There is no binary encoding, and increasing precision becomes exponentially costly: an extra bit of precision doubles the size of the computer. This has important consequences for both the precision and error correction requirements of quantum simulation, and significant open questions remain about its practicality. It also means that the quantum version of analogue computers, continuous variable quantum computers (CVQC) becomes an equally efficient architecture for quantum simulation. Lessons from past use of classical analogue computers can help us to build better quantum simulators in future.Comment: 10 pages, to appear in the Visions 2010 issue of Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc.

Fluid Mechanical and Electrical Fluctuation Forces in Colloids

Fluctuations in fluid velocity and fluctuations in electric fields may both give rise to forces acting on small particles in colloidal suspensions. Such forces in part determine the thermodynamic stability of the colloid. At the classical statistical thermodynamic level, the fluid velocity and electric field contributions to the forces are comparable in magnitude. When quantum fluctuation effects are taken into account, the electric fluctuation induced van der Waals forces dominate those induced by purely fluid mechanical motions. The physical principles are applied in detail for the case of colloidal particle attraction to the walls of the suspension container and more briefly for the case of forces between colloidal particles.Comment: ReVTeX format, one *.eps figur

Prevalence and risk factors for mast cell tumours in dogs in England

BACKGROUND: Mast cell tumour (MCT) appears to be a frequent tumour type in dogs, though there is little published in relation to its frequency in dogs in the UK. The current study aimed to investigate prevalence and risk factors for MCTs in dogs attending English primary-care veterinary practices. METHODS: Electronic patient records from practices participating in the VetCompass animal surveillance project between July 2007 and June 2013 were searched for MCT diagnosis. Various search terms and standard diagnostic terms (VeNom codes) identified records containing MCT diagnoses, which were evaluated against clinical criteria for inclusion to the study. MCT prevalence for the entire dataset and specific breed types were calculated. Descriptive statistics characterised MCT cases and multivariable logistic regression methods evaluated risk factors for association with MCT (P < 0.05). RESULTS: Within a population of 168,636 dogs, 453 had MCT, yielding a prevalence of 0.27% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.24% - 0.29%). The highest breed type specific prevalences were for the Boxer at 1.95% (95% CI 1.40% - 2.51%), Golden Retriever at 1.39% (0.98% - 1.81%) and Weimaraner at 0.85% (95% CI 0.17% to 1.53%). Age, insurance status, neuter status, weight and breed type were associated with MCT diagnosis. Of dogs of specific breed type, the Boxer, Pug and Staffordshire Bull Terrier showed greater odds of MCT diagnosis compared with crossbred dogs. Conversely, the German Shepherd Dog, Border Collie, West Highland White Terrier, Springer Spaniel and Cocker Spaniel had reduced odds of MCT diagnosis compared with crossbred dogs. No association was found between MCT diagnosis and sex. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE: This study highlights a clinically significant prevalence of MCT and identifies specific breed types with predisposition to MCT, potentially aiding veterinarian awareness and facilitating diagnosis

Performance Evaluation of Judgmental Directional Exchange Rate Predictions

Cataloged from PDF version of article.A procedure is proposed for examining different aspects of performance for judgemental directional probability predictions of exchange rate movements. In particular, a range of new predictive performance measures is identified to highlight specific expressions of strengths and weaknesses in judgemental directional forecasts. Proposed performance qualifiers extend the existing accuracy measures, enabling detailed comparisons of probability forecasts with ex-post empirical probabilities that are derived from changes in the logarithms of the series. This provides a multi-faceted evaluation that is straightforward for practitioners to implement, while affording the flexibility of being used in situations where the time intervals between the predictions have variable lengths. The proposed procedure is illustrated via an application to a set of directional probability exchange rate forecasts for the US Dollar/Swiss Franc from 23/7/96 to 7/12/99 and the findings are discussed. D 2005 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Currency forecasting: an investigation of extrapolative judgement

Cataloged from PDF version of article.This paper aims to explore the potential effects of trend type, noise and forecast horizon on experts' and novices' probabilistic forecasts. The subjects made forecasts over six time horizons from simulated monthly currency series based on a random walk, with zero, constant and stochastic drift, at two noise levels. The difference between the Mean Absolute Probability Score of each participant and an AR(1) model was used to evaluate performance. The results showed that the experts performed better than the novices, although worse than the model except in the case of zero drift series. No clear expertise effects occurred over horizons, albeit subjects' performance relative to the model improved as the horizon increased. Possible explanations are offered and some suggestions for future research are outlined

Epistemic Schmagency?

Constructivist approaches in epistemology and ethics offer a promising account of normativity. But constructivism faces a powerful Schmagency Objection, raised by David Enoch. While Enoch’s objection has been widely discussed in the context of practical norms, no one has yet explored how the Schmagency Objection might undermine epistemic constructivism. In this paper, I rectify that gap. First, I develop the objection against a prominent form of epistemic constructivism, Belief Constitutivism. Belief Constitutivism is susceptible to a Schmagency Objection, I argue, because it locates the source of normativity in the belief rather than the agent. In the final section, I propose a version of epistemic constructivism that locates epistemic normativity as constitutive of agency. I argue that this version has the resources to respond to the Schmagency Objection

Contact-induced apical asymmetry drives the thigmotropic responses of Candida albicans hyphae

Acknowledgements We thank Marco Thiel for assistance with data interpretation, Peter Sudbery for the provision of strains and Jeremy Craven for useful discussions. This work was supported by a BBSRC-DTG to D. D. T., NIH award DK083592 to F. J. B. and P. A. J., and a Royal Society URF UF080611 and MRC NIRG 90671 to A. C. B.Non peer reviewedPublisher PD