Nonlinear softening as a predictive precursor to climate tipping

Approaching a dangerous bifurcation, from which a dynamical system such as the Earth's climate will jump (tip) to a different state, the current stable state lies within a shrinking basin of attraction. Persistence of the state becomes increasingly precarious in the presence of noisy disturbances. We consider an underlying potential, as defined theoretically for a saddle-node fold and (via averaging) for a Hopf bifurcation. Close to a stable state, this potential has a parabolic form; but approaching a jump it becomes increasingly dominated by softening nonlinearities. If we have already detected a decrease in the linear decay rate, nonlinear information allows us to estimate the propensity for early tipping due to noise. We argue that one needs to extract information about the nonlinear features (a "softening") of the underlying potential from the time series to judge the probability and timing of tipping. This analysis is the logical next step if one has detected a decrease of the linear decay rate. If there is no discernable trend in the linear analysis, nonlinear softening is even more important in showing the proximity to tipping. After extensive normal form calibration studies, we check two geological time series from paleo-climate tipping events for softening of the underlying well. For the ending of the last ice age, where we find no convincing linear precursor, we identify a statistically significant nonlinear softening towards increasing temperature. The analysis has thus successfully detected a warning of the imminent tipping event.Comment: 22 pages, 11 figures, changed title back, corrected smaller mistakes, updated reference

Pattern formation in large domains

Pattern formation is a phenomenon that arises in a wide variety of physical, chemical and biological situations. A great deal of theoretical progress has been made in understanding the universal aspects of pattern formation in terms of amplitudes of the modes that make up the pattern. Much of the theory has sound mathematical justification, but experiments and numerical simulations over the last decade have revealed complex two-dimensional patterns that do not have a satisfactory theoretical explanation. This paper focuses on quasi-patterns, where the appearance of small divisors causes the standard theoretical method to fail, and ends with a discussion of other outstanding problems in the theory of two-dimensional pattern formation in large domains

Life assessment of combustor liner using unified constitutive models

Hot section components of gas turbine engines are subject to severe thermomechanical loads during each mission cycle. Inelastic deformation can be induced in localized regions leading to eventual fatigue cracking. Assessment of durability requires reasonably accurate calculation of the structural response at the critical location for crack initiation. In recent years nonlinear finite element computer codes have become available for calculating inelastic structural response under cyclic loading. NASA-Lewis sponsored the development of unified constitutive material models and their implementation in nonlinear finite element computer codes for the structural analysis of hot section components. These unified models were evaluated with regard to their effect on the life prediction of a hot section component. The component considered was a gas turbine engine combustor liner. A typical engine mission cycle was used for the thermal and structural analyses. The analyses were performed on a CRAY computer using the MARC finite element code. The results were compared with laboratory test results, in terms of crack initiation lives

Constraining the Surface Inhomogeneity and Settling Times of Metals on Accreting White Dwarfs

Due to the short settling times of metals in DA white dwarf atmospheres, any white dwarfs with photospheric metals must be actively accreting. It is therefore natural to expect that the metals may not be deposited uniformly on the surface of the star. We present calculations showing how the temperature variations associated with white dwarf pulsations lead to an observable diagnostic of the surface metal distribution, and we show what constraints current data sets are able to provide. We also investigate the effect that time-variable accretion has on the metal abundances of different species, and we show how this can lead to constraints on the gravitational settling times.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal Letters, updated reference

Structural assessment of a space station solar dynamic heat receiver thermal energy storage canister

The structural performance of a space station thermal energy storage (TES) canister subject to orbital solar flux variation and engine cold start up operating conditions was assessed. The impact of working fluid temperature and salt-void distribution on the canister structure are assessed. Both analytical and experimental studies were conducted to determine the temperature distribution of the canister. Subsequent finite element structural analyses of the canister were performed using both analytically and experimentally obtained temperatures. The Arrhenius creep law was incorporated into the procedure, using secondary creep data for the canister material, Haynes 188 alloy. The predicted cyclic creep strain accumulations at the hot spot were used to assess the structural performance of the canister. In addition, the structural performance of the canister based on the analytically determined temperature was compared with that based on the experimentally measured temperature data

Dynamics of localized spins coupled to the conduction electrons with charge/spin currents

The effects of the charge/spin currents of conduction electrons on the dynamics of the localized spins are studied in terms of the perturbation in the exchange coupling $J_{K}$ between them. The equations of motion for the localized spins are derived exactly up to $O(J_{K}^2)$, and the equations for the two-spin system is solved numerically. It is found that the dynamics depends sensitively upon the relative magnitude of the charge and spin currents, i.e., it shows steady state, periodic motion, and even chaotic behavior. Extension to the multi-spin system and its implications including possible ``spin current detector'' are also discussed.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, REVTe

Precursor of Color Superconductivity

We investigate possible precursory phenomena of color superconductivity at finite temperature $T$ with an effective theory of QCD. It is found that the fluctuation of the diquark pair field exists with a prominent strength even well above the critical temperature $T_c$. We show that such a fluctuaiton forms a collective mode, the corresponding pole of which approaches the origin as $T$ is lowered to $T_c$ in the complex energy plane. We discuss the possible relevance of the precursor to the observables to be detected in heavy-ion collisions.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figures, Talk presented at the XVIth International Conference on Particles and Nuclei (PANIC02), Osaka, Japan, Sep.30 - Oct.4, 2002, Uses espcrc1.st

Identifying the transporters of different flavonoids in plants

We recently identified a new component of flavonoid transport pathways in Arabidopsis. The MATE protein FFT (Flower Flavonoid Transporter) is primarily found in guard cells and seedling roots, and mutation of the transporter results in floral and growth phenotypes. The nature of FFT’s substrate requires further exploration but our data suggest that it is a kaempferol diglucoside. Here we discuss potential partner H+-ATPases and possible redundancy among the close homologues within the large Arabidopsis MATE family