Partition-dependent framing effects in lab and field prediction markets

Many psychology experiments show that individually judged probabilities of the same event can vary depending on the partition of the state space (a framing effect called "partition-dependence"). We show that these biases transfer to competitive prediction markets in which multiple informed traders are provided economic incentives to bet on their beliefs about events. We report results of a short controlled lab study, a longer field experiment (betting on the NBA playoffs and the FIFA World Cup), and naturally-occurring trading in macro-economic derivatives. The combined evidence suggests that partition-dependence can exist and persist in lab and field prediction markets

Magnetic reconnection in plasma under inertial confinement fusion conditions driven by heat flux effects in Ohm's law

In the interaction of high-power laser beams with solid density plasma there are a number of mechanisms that generate strong magnetic fields. Such fields subsequently inhibit or redirect electron flows, but can themselves be advected by heat fluxes, resulting in complex interplay between thermal transport and magnetic fields.We show that for heating by multiple laser spots reconnection of magnetic field lines can occur, mediated by these heat fluxes, using a fully implicit 2D Vlasov-Fokker-Planck code. Under such conditions, the reconnection rate is dictated by heat flows rather than Alfv\`enic flows. We find that this mechanism is only relevant in a high $\beta$ plasma. However, the Hall parameter $\omega_c \tau_{ei}$ can be large so that thermal transport is strongly modified by these magnetic fields, which can impact longer time scale temperature homogeneity and ion dynamics in the system

A Field Validation of Dam Indexing Methods in Mississippi

Indexing methods are applied to dam inventories throughout the United States to assist in prioritizing resources to maintain aging dam structures. Three published indexing methods and one proposed method were applied to 24 dams through Mississippi. The majority of dams in Mississippi have little to no information concerning the performance records or design specifics of a given dam. Field assessments were conducted to determine the physical condition of each dam, identify potentially deficiencies at dams, and calculate a consequence in the event of a dam failure. The results of the four indexing methods will be compared and advantages and disadvantages will be identified for each method

William Allen White’s Prairie

William Allen White called himself a prairie town boy, and he celebrated the prairie in his writing. From his earliest fiction, The Real Issue (1896), to his final novel, In the Heart of a Fool (1918), to his Autobiography (1946), White’s natural world is the Kansas he grew up in and loved as “the fairest of the world’s habitations.

Pentecost in Asia: A New Way of Being Church

Maryknoll, New Yorkxvi, 238 p.; 24 cm

Editor\u27s Note

Written on Fox\u27s departure

Examining Attention, Impulsiveness, and Cognitive Failures in Driving Behaviors

Dangerous driving behaviors are influenced by multiple factors including cognitive processes such as impulse inhibition and attentiveness. Impulsiveness, inattention, and cognitive failures have been linked to other risky behaviors, but a comprehensive evaluation using multiple methods of measurement of these has never been conducted to analyze their impact on dangerous driving. The purpose of this study was to examine influences of attentional abilities, impulsiveness, and cognitive failures on reported and demonstrated dangerous driving behaviors. Seventy-five participants completed a self-report dangerous driving measure, a self-report ADHD measure, a self-report impulsiveness measure, a continuous performance task to measure behavioral impulsivity and inattention, a measure of cognitive failures, and a driving simulator task. Two hierarchical linear regressions with simultaneous entry into blocks were used to analyze contributions of impulsiveness, inattention, and cognitive failures assessments in predicting dangerous driving behavior. Results indicated these assessments accounted for a significant proportion of the variance in Dula Dangerous Driving Index (3DI) scores above and beyond the effects of age and sex, Adjusted R▓ = .20, F(6, 59) = 2.51, p \u3c .05, but no significant individual predictors emerged. Scores on these measures were also found to account for a significant amount of the variance in risky driving as measured by the driving simulator, above and beyond the effects of age and sex, Adjusted R▓ = .15, F(6, 60) = 2.91, p \u3c .05, and identified BIS-11 scores and ADHD-RS impulsiveness scores as significant individual predictors. It seems that despite multiple methods of assessment, it is still difficult to capture the assumed relationships between each of these factors and driving. Though each assessment measures different aspects of constructs related to dangerous driving, the lack of relationships and predictive abilities may indicate that impulsiveness, inattention, cognitive failures, and dangerous driving may be more complex and multifaceted than previously understood