Fear of the Market or Fear of the Competitor? Ambiguity in a Real Options Game

In this paper we study an investment game between two firms with a first--mover advantage, where payoffs are driven by a geometric Brownian motion. At least one of the firms is assumed to be ambiguous over the drift, with maxmin preferences over a strongly rectangular set of priors. We develop a strategy and equilibrium concept allowing for ambiguity and show that equilibria can be preemptive (a firm invests at a point where investment is Pareto dominated by waiting) or sequential (one firm invests as if it were the exogenously appointed leader). Following the standard literature, the worst--case prior for an ambiguous firm in the follower role is obtained by setting the lowest possible trend in the set of priors. However, if an ambiguous firm is the first mover, then the worst--case drift can fluctuate between the lowest and the highest trends. This novel result shows that ``worst--case prior'' in a setting with drift ambiguity does not always equate to ``lowest trend''. As a consequence, preemptive pressure reduces. We show that this results in the possibility of firm value being increasing in the level of ambiguity. If only one firm is ambiguous, then the value of the non--ambiguous firm can be increasing in the level of ambiguity of the ambiguous firm

Novel mutations in the VKORC1 gene of wild rats and mice – a response to 50 years of selection pressure by warfarin?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Coumarin derivatives have been in world-wide use for rodent pest control for more than 50 years. Due to their retarded action as inhibitors of blood coagulation by repression of the vitamin K reductase (VKOR) activity, they are the rodenticides of choice against several species. Resistance to these compounds has been reported for rodent populations from many countries around the world and poses a considerable problem for efficacy of pest control.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In the present study, we have sequenced the <it>VKORC1 </it>genes of more than 250 rats and mice trapped in anticoagulant-exposed areas from four continents, and identified 18 novel and five published missense mutations, as well as eight neutral sequence variants, in a total of 178 animals. Mutagenesis in <it>VKORC1 </it>cDNA constructs and their recombinant expression revealed that these mutations reduced VKOR activities as compared to the wild-type protein. However, the <it>in vitro </it>enzyme assay used was not suited to convincingly demonstrate the warfarin resistance of all mutant proteins</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our results corroborate the <it>VKORC1 </it>gene as the main target for spontaneous mutations conferring warfarin resistance. The mechanism(s) of how mutations in the <it>VKORC1 </it>gene mediate insensitivity to coumarins <it>in vivo </it>has still to be elucidated.</p

Evaluation of sit-stand workstations in an office setting: A randomised controlled trial

Background: Excessive sitting time is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease mortality and morbidity independent of physical activity. This aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of a sit-stand workstation on sitting time, and vascular, metabolic and musculoskeletal outcomes in office workers, and to investigate workstation acceptability and feasibility. Methods: A two-arm, parallel-group, individually randomised controlled trial was conducted in one organisation. Participants were asymptomatic full-time office workers aged ≥18 years. Each participant in the intervention arm had a sit-stand workstation installed on their workplace desk for 8 weeks. Participants in the control arm received no intervention. The primary outcome was workplace sitting time, assessed at 0, 4 and 8 weeks by an ecological momentary assessment diary. Secondary behavioural, cardiometabolic and musculoskeletal outcomes were assessed. Acceptability and feasibility were assessed via questionnaire and interview. ANCOVA and magnitude-based inferences examined intervention effects relative to controls at 4 and 8 weeks. Participants and researchers were not blind to group allocation. Results: Forty-seven participants were randomised (intervention n = 26; control n = 21). Relative to the control group at 8 weeks, the intervention group had a beneficial decrease in sitting time (-80.2 min/8-h workday (95 % CI = -129.0, -31.4); p = 0.002), increase in standing time (72.9 min/8-h workday (21.2, 124.6); p = 0.007) and decrease in total cholesterol (-0.40 mmol/L (-0.79, -0.003); p = 0.049). No harmful changes in musculoskeletal discomfort/pain were observed relative to controls, and beneficial changes in flow-mediated dilation and diastolic blood pressure were observed. Most participants self-reported that the workstation was easy to use and their work-related productivity did not decrease when using the device. Factors that negatively influenced workstation use were workstation design, the social environment, work tasks and habits. Conclusion: Short-term use of a feasible sit-stand workstation reduced daily sitting time and led to beneficial improvements in cardiometabolic risk parameters in asymptomatic office workers. These findings imply that if the observed use of the sit-stand workstations continued over a longer duration, sit-stand workstations may have important ramifications for the prevention and reduction of cardiometabolic risk in a large proportion of the working population. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02496507

Plasma phosphorylated tau 217 and phosphorylated tau 181 as biomarkers in Alzheimer's disease and frontotemporal lobar degeneration: a retrospective diagnostic performance study

Background: Plasma tau phosphorylated at threonine 217 (p-tau217) and plasma tau phosphorylated at threonine 181 (p-tau181) are associated with Alzheimer's disease tau pathology. We compared the diagnostic value of both biomarkers in cognitively unimpaired participants and patients with a clinical diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment, Alzheimer's disease syndromes, or frontotemporal lobar degeneration (FTLD) syndromes. / Methods: In this retrospective multicohort diagnostic performance study, we analysed plasma samples, obtained from patients aged 18–99 years old who had been diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease syndromes (Alzheimer's disease dementia, logopenic variant primary progressive aphasia, or posterior cortical atrophy), FTLD syndromes (corticobasal syndrome, progressive supranuclear palsy, behavioural variant frontotemporal dementia, non-fluent variant primary progressive aphasia, or semantic variant primary progressive aphasia), or mild cognitive impairment; the participants were from the University of California San Francisco (UCSF) Memory and Aging Center, San Francisco, CA, USA, and the Advancing Research and Treatment for Frontotemporal Lobar Degeneration Consortium (ARTFL; 17 sites in the USA and two in Canada). Participants from both cohorts were carefully characterised, including assessments of CSF p-tau181, amyloid-PET or tau-PET (or both), and clinical and cognitive evaluations. Plasma p-tau181 and p-tau217 were measured using electrochemiluminescence-based assays, which differed only in the biotinylated antibody epitope specificity. Receiver operating characteristic analyses were used to determine diagnostic accuracy of both plasma markers using clinical diagnosis, neuropathological findings, and amyloid-PET and tau-PET measures as gold standards. Difference between two area under the curve (AUC) analyses were tested with the Delong test. / Findings: Data were collected from 593 participants (443 from UCSF and 150 from ARTFL, mean age 64 years [SD 13], 294 [50%] women) between July 1 and Nov 30, 2020. Plasma p-tau217 and p-tau181 were correlated (r=0·90, p<0·0001). Both p-tau217 and p-tau181 concentrations were increased in people with Alzheimer's disease syndromes (n=75, mean age 65 years [SD 10]) relative to cognitively unimpaired controls (n=118, mean age 61 years [SD 18]; AUC=0·98 [95% CI 0·95–1·00] for p-tau217, AUC=0·97 [0·94–0·99] for p-tau181; pdiff=0·31) and in pathology-confirmed Alzheimer's disease (n=15, mean age 73 years [SD 12]) versus pathologically confirmed FTLD (n=68, mean age 67 years [SD 8]; AUC=0·96 [0·92–1·00] for p-tau217, AUC=0·91 [0·82–1·00] for p-tau181; pdiff=0·22). P-tau217 outperformed p-tau181 in differentiating patients with Alzheimer's disease syndromes (n=75) from those with FTLD syndromes (n=274, mean age 67 years [SD 9]; AUC=0·93 [0·91–0·96] for p-tau217, AUC=0·91 [0·88–0·94] for p-tau181; pdiff=0·01). P-tau217 was a stronger indicator of amyloid-PET positivity (n=146, AUC=0·91 [0·88–0·94]) than was p-tau181 (n=214, AUC=0·89 [0·86–0·93]; pdiff=0·049). Tau-PET binding in the temporal cortex was more strongly associated with p-tau217 than p-tau181 (r=0·80 vs r=0·72; pdiff<0·0001, n=230). / Interpretation: Both p-tau217 and p-tau181 had excellent diagnostic performance for differentiating patients with Alzheimer's disease syndromes from other neurodegenerative disorders. There was some evidence in favour of p-tau217 compared with p-tau181 for differential diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease syndromes versus FTLD syndromes, as an indication of amyloid-PET-positivity, and for stronger correlations with tau-PET signal. Pending replication in independent, diverse, and older cohorts, plasma p-tau217 and p-tau181 could be useful screening tools to identify individuals with underlying amyloid and Alzheimer's disease tau pathology. / Funding: US National Institutes of Health, State of California Department of Health Services, Rainwater Charitable Foundation, Michael J Fox foundation, Association for Frontotemporal Degeneration, Alzheimer's Association

Diagnostic value of plasma phosphorylated tau181 in Alzheimer's disease and frontotemporal lobar degeneration

With the potential development of new disease-modifying Alzheimer’s disease (AD) therapies, simple, widely available screening tests are needed to identify which individuals, who are experiencing symptoms of cognitive or behavioral decline, should be further evaluated for initiation of treatment. A blood-based test for AD would be a less invasive and less expensive screening tool than the currently approved cerebrospinal fluid or amyloid β positron emission tomography (PET) diagnostic tests. We examined whether plasma tau phosphorylated at residue 181 (pTau181) could differentiate between clinically diagnosed or autopsy-confirmed AD and frontotemporal lobar degeneration. Plasma pTau181 concentrations were increased by 3.5-fold in AD compared to controls and differentiated AD from both clinically diagnosed (receiver operating characteristic area under the curve of 0.894) and autopsy-confirmed frontotemporal lobar degeneration (area under the curve of 0.878). Plasma pTau181 identified individuals who were amyloid β-PET-positive regardless of clinical diagnosis and correlated with cortical tau protein deposition measured by 18F-flortaucipir PET. Plasma pTau181 may be useful to screen for tau pathology associated with AD

Mediterranean spotted fever: clinical and laboratory characteristics of 415 Sicilian children

BACKGROUND: Mediterranean spotted fever (MSF) is an acute febrile, zoonotic disease caused by Rickettsia conorii and transmitted to humans by the brown dogtick Rhipicephalus sanguineus. Nearly four hundred cases are reported every year (mainly from June to September) on the Italian island of Sicily. The aim of the study was to analyze the clinical and laboratory characteristics of patients with MSF and the efficacy of the drugs administered. METHODS: Our study was carried out on 415 children with MSF, during the period January 1997 – December 2004, at the "G. Di Cristina" Children's hospital in Palermo, Sicily, Italy. On admission patients' clinical history, physical and laboratory examination and indirect immunofluorescence antibody test (IFAT) for Rickettsia conorii were performed. Diagnosis was considered confirmed if the patients had an MSF diagnostic score greater than or equal to 25 according to the Raoult's scoring system. All patients were treated with chloramphenicol or with macrolides (clarithromycin or azithromycin). RESULTS: Fever, rash and tache noire were present in 386 (93%), 392 (94.5%) and 263 (63.4%) cases respectively. Eighteen (4.6%) children showed atypical exanthema. Chloramphenicol and newer macrolides all appeared to be effective and safe therapies. CONCLUSION: Clinical features of 415 children with MSF were similar to those reported by other authors except for a lower incidence of headache, arthralgia and myalgia and a higher frequency of epato-splenomegaly. Concerning therapy, clarithromycin can be considered a valid alternative therapy to tetracyclines or chloramphenicol especially for children aged < eight years

Impact of inactivity and exercise on the vasculature in humans

The effects of inactivity and exercise training on established and novel cardiovascular risk factors are relatively modest and do not account for the impact of inactivity and exercise on vascular risk. We examine evidence that inactivity and exercise have direct effects on both vasculature function and structure in humans. Physical deconditioning is associated with enhanced vasoconstrictor tone and has profound and rapid effects on arterial remodelling in both large and smaller arteries. Evidence for an effect of deconditioning on vasodilator function is less consistent. Studies of the impact of exercise training suggest that both functional and structural remodelling adaptations occur and that the magnitude and time-course of these changes depends upon training duration and intensity and the vessel beds involved. Inactivity and exercise have direct “vascular deconditioning and conditioning” effects which likely modify cardiovascular risk

Left and right ventricular longitudinal strain-volume/area relationships in elite athletes.

We propose a novel ultrasound approach with the primary aim of establishing the temporal relationship of structure and function in athletes of varying sporting demographics. 92 male athletes were studied [Group IA, (low static-low dynamic) (n = 20); Group IC, (low static-high dynamic) (n = 25); Group IIIA, (high static-low dynamic) (n = 21); Group IIIC, (high static-high dynamic) (n = 26)]. Conventional echocardiography of both the left ventricles (LV) and right ventricles (RV) was undertaken. An assessment of simultaneous longitudinal strain and LV volume/RV area was provided. Data was presented as derived strain for % end diastolic volume/area. Athletes in group IC and IIIC had larger LV end diastolic volumes compared to athletes in groups IA and IIIA (50 ± 6 and 54 ± 8 ml/(m(2))(1.5) versus 42 ± 7 and 43 ± 2 ml/(m(2))(1.5) respectively). Group IIIC also had significantly larger mean wall thickness (MWT) compared to all groups. Athletes from group IIIC required greater longitudinal strain for any given % volume which correlated to MWT (r = 0.4, p < 0.0001). Findings were similar in the RV with the exception that group IIIC athletes required lower strain for any given % area. There are physiological differences between athletes with the largest LV and RV in athletes from group IIIC. These athletes also have greater resting longitudinal contribution to volume change in the LV which, in part, is related to an increased wall thickness. A lower longitudinal contribution to area change in the RV is also apparent in these athletes

Thermoregulation and fluid balance during a 30-km march in 60-versus 80-year-old subjects

The presence of impaired thermoregulatory and fluid balance responses to exercise in older individuals is well established. To improve our understanding on thermoregulation and fluid balance during exercise in older individuals, we compared thermoregulatory and fluid balance responses between sexagenarians and octogenarians during prolonged exercise. Forty sexagenarians (60 ± 1 year) and 36 octogenarians (81 ± 2 year) volunteered to participate in a 30-km march at a self-selected pace. Intestinal temperature (T in) and heart rate were recorded every 5 km. Subjects reported fluid intake, while urine output was measured and sweat rate was calculated. Octogenarians demonstrated a lower baseline T in and a larger exercise-induced increase in T in compared to sexagenarians (1.2 ± 0.5 °C versus 0.7 ± 0.4 °C, p  0.05). These results suggest that thermoregulatory responses deteriorate with advancing age, while fluid balance is regulated appropriately during a 30-km walking march under moderate ambient conditions

Identification of serum angiopoietin-2 as a biomarker for clinical outcome of colorectal cancer patients treated with bevacizumab-containing therapy

BACKGROUND: The combination of chemotherapy with the vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) antibody bevacizumab is a standard of care in advanced colorectal cancer (CRC). However, biomarkers predicting outcome of bevacizumab-containing treatment are lacking. As angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2) is a key regulator of vascular remodelling in concert with VEGF, we investigated its role as a biomarker in metastatic CRC. METHODS: Serum Ang-2 levels were measured in 33 healthy volunteers and 90 patients with CRC. Of these, 34 had metastatic disease and received bevacizumab-containing therapy. To determine the tissue of origin of Ang-2, quantitative real-time PCR was performed on microdissected cryosections of human CRC and in a murine xenograft model of CRC using species-specific amplification. RESULTS: Ang-2 originated from the stromal compartment of CRC tissues. Serum Ang-2 levels were significantly elevated in patients with metastatic CRC compared with healthy controls. Amongst patients receiving bevacizumab-containing treatment, low pre-therapeutic serum Ang-2 levels were associated with a significant better response rate (82 vs 31%; P<0.01), a prolonged median progression-free survival (14.1 vs 8.5 months; P<0.01) and a reduction of 91% in the hazard of death (P<0.05). CONCLUSION: Serum Ang-2 is a candidate biomarker for outcome of patients with metastatic CRC treated with bevacizumab-containing therapy, and it should be further validated to customise combined chemotherapeutic and anti-angiogenic treatment. British Journal of Cancer (2010) 103, 1407-1414. doi: 10.1038/sj.bjc.6605925 www.bjcancer.com Published online 5 October 2010 (C) 2010 Cancer Research U