Making Detailed Predictions Makes (Some) Predictions Worse

In this paper, we investigate whether making detailed predictions about an event makes other predictions worse. Across 19 experiments, 10,895 participants, and 415,960 predictions about 724 professional sports games, we find that people who made detailed predictions about sporting events (e.g., how many hits each baseball team would get) made worse predictions about more general outcomes (e.g., which team would win). We rule out that this effect is caused by inattention or fatigue, thinking too hard, or a differential reliance on holistic information about the teams. Instead, we find that thinking about game-relevant details before predicting winning teams causes people to give less weight to predictive information, presumably because predicting details makes information that is relatively useless for predicting the winning team more readily accessible in memory and therefore incorporated into forecasts. Furthermore, we show that this differential use of information can be used to predict what kinds of games will and will not be susceptible to the negative effect of making detailed predictions

Taking Apart the Time Machine: Investigating Space-for-Time Substitution Modeling in the Florida Everglades

Space-for-Time substitution modeling has been used with increasing frequency to identify functional relationships between environmental drivers and ecological responses. I investigated the use of space-for-time substitution as a null model and beta diversity as a validity test for this null model in the Greater Everglades aquatic metacommunity. I began by conducting a literature review and analysis to investigate the suitability of the space-for-time substitution method as a null model. I then analyzed beta diversity of the Greater Everglades aquatic metacommunity through a sums-of-squares approach. Finally, I tested for correlation between the beta diversity analysis and the space-for-time models. Results indicate that while beta diversity is correlated with space-for-time model success for some species, the relationship is not consistently significant and therefore not suited for validity testing. Space-for-Time substitution is suitable for use as a null model but cannot be used reliably in predictive models for management purposes

The Impact of an Autonomy-Supportive Yoga Intervention on the Self-Determination and Anxiety of Individuals with Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities: A Multi-Method Approach

Individuals with intellectual and developmental disabilities are at greater risk for low self-determination and increased symptoms of anxiety. Research supports the use of autonomy-supportive interventions to promote positive health outcomes with this population. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of a six-week autonomy-supportive yoga intervention on the self-determination and anxiety of adults with intellectual and developmental disabilities. This study used a multi-method design: eight subjects participated in pre- and post- semi-structured, qualitative interviews and a quantitative assessment of anxiety. Directed content analysis identified support for four themes related to the impact of yoga participation: autonomy, relatedness, competence, and anxiety. Quantitative findings related to change in anxiety trended toward significance. The findings indicated that participating in an autonomy-supportive yoga intervention may be associated with increased self-determination and decreased symptoms of anxiety in adults with intellectual and developmental disabilities

Drought‑Stricken U.S. States Have More Comprehensive Water‑Related Hazard Planning

Despite the devastating impacts of droughts, the United States lacks a national drought plan. This leaves states to address droughts in water, hazard, and stand-alone plans which are designed to reduce drought vulnerability and to prepare government, industry, and society to cope with the impacts. Yet, there is limited empirical research that evaluates the comprehensiveness of these plans, specifically in terms of whether they include preparedness and mitigation measures or triggers for action and response. To fill this gap, this study’s first aim was to establish an evaluation framework based on principles from the drought mitigation literature. The study then evaluated 171 state-level plans with the framework, and simultaneously collected interview data to contextualize the results. In a final step, the scores were employed in a statistical analysis of whether states with higher physical exposure to drought have more comprehensive planning. The study finds states that have experienced more frequent and severe drought plan more comprehensively, suggesting that the occurrence of drought may be an intrinsic driver for planning. The study concludes that planning and preparing for droughts is a necessary but complex undertaking requiring interdisciplinary, interagency efforts that the U.S.’ decentralized, federalist political system is suited to address. If generalization is warranted, the results suggest that the physical occurrence of drought can act as a policy catalyst

An Innovative Methodology for Conceptualizing and Evaluating Government Information Systems: The CTG Approach

The paper describes CTG’s interdisciplinary approach to conceptualizing and evaluating government information systems. The CTG partnership approach emphasizes an iterative process that fosters organizational learning in a neutral, low-risk environment. CTG’s partnership model brings together individuals from government agencies, vendors of technology and technology services, and university faculty and students across a range of disciplines to evaluate the potential costs and benefits of technology solutions in the context of programmatic and policy objectives. The CTG methodology is described both generally and more specifically through a discussion of three distinct programs of activity focused on aspects of information system conceptualization and evaluation in the public sector

The construction of a vocabulary test for the intermediate grades,

Thesis (M.A.)--Boston Universit

An Examination of College Flute Professors\u27 Approaches to Improving Students\u27 Intonation Skills

The purpose of this study was to examine what methods college flute professors use to improve their students intonation skills and to highlight resources to aid future practices on the subject of intonation. The research questions guiding this study were (a) Do college flute professors teach students how to improve intonation skills? (b) What methods do college flute professors use to improve students\u27 intonation skills? (c) What resources do college flute professors use in conjunction with teaching intonation? Research was conducted using a researcher-created online survey that was distributed to college flute professors throughout the United States. Findings suggested a limited amount of information within extant flute pedagogy literature. The research concluded that flute professors do teach intonation and address many variables when discussing the topic. These variables include ear training fundamentals, instrument tendencies, harmonic exercises, alternate fingerings, and specific techniques used to change intonation. Flute professors indicated many resources they used in conjunction with teaching intonation. Many of these resources were not intonation specific, rather encompassing a broader topic like tone. The limited amount information in flute pedagogy literature in combination with the abundant use of teacher-created exercises concludes that an intonation specific resource is necessary within the flute pedagogy literature. The goal of this study is to provide insight into the fundamental information that should be provided in such a resource

Affective, cognitive, and performance consequences of self-selected self-handicaps.

Self-handicapping is defined as the construction of obstacles or impediments to successful performance by an individual to protect or enhance self-esteem or self-image. The purpose of this research study was to explore the consequences of engaging in a behavioral self-handicapping strategy. In addition to positive and negative affect, test performance, test performance attributions, and self-efficacy were measured. Self-esteem and tendency to self-handicap served as covariates. Self-selected handicaps were examined in a quasi-experimental design. Participants chose whether to self-handicap or not by selecting either perceived distracting or enhancing music. Participants completed pre-test measures of positive affect, negative affect, self-esteem, and tendency to self-handicap. A practice test composed of items from the Diagnostic and Spatial Relations Aptitude Test (DSRAT) provided a pre-test measure of performance. After completing the pre-test measure of performance, participants chose to listen to either perceived performance-distracting or perceived performance-enhancing music while completing the DSRAT performance test. Upon completion of the test and receiving false failure feedback, positive and negative affect, performance attributions, self-efficacy, and test performance were measured. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)Dept. of Psychology. Paper copy at Leddy Library: Theses & Major Papers - Basement, West Bldg. / Call Number: Thesis2003 .P69. Source: Masters Abstracts International, Volume: 42-02, page: 0382. Adviser: Frank Schneider. Thesis (M.A.)--University of Windsor (Canada), 2003

Expressions of Social Presence in Agricultural Conversations on Twitter: Implications for Agricultural Communications

Computer-mediated environments such as social media create new social climates that impact communication interactions in un-mediated environments. As computer-mediated communication (CMC) stimulates more social communities, many communication behaviors will evolve and adapt to the unique social environment created by CMC. This study examined social variables during two different synchronous conversations on Twitter through a qualitative document analysis that coded messages into affective, interactive, and cohesive categories. Categories were determined by indicators within each message such as emoticons, direct responses, and the use of individuals’ names. The researcher concluded that most social variables in the Twitter conversations fit into the interactive social presence category but that affective and cohesive responses supported personal connection and structure within the conversations. It was also found that the same category of responses could function differently in each conversation. However, both conversations in this study appeared to be successful. Therefore, agricultural communicators should feel comfortable using CMC that contains social presence dimensions to circulate agricultural information among populations across the globe. Additional research should be conducted to examine social presence among new topics, populations, and other forms of CMC

Participant Satisfaction Related to Social Presence in Agricultural Conversations using Twitter: Implications for Agricultural Communications

Communication has evolved from predominantly face-to-face environments to include greater use of computer-mediated environments such as social networking sites for sharing information, meeting new people, and learning. Aspects of computer-mediated communication related to perceptions of social presence impact the way communication occurs in un-mediated environments. This study examined perceived social presence, participant satisfaction, and relationships between social presence and satisfaction among Twitter users during streaming conversations. Data were collected through an online questionnaire that was created using qualtrics.com and made available to respondents over a one-week period. Two groups of survey respondents agreed with 10 of 21 and 13 of 21 statements about social presence and 10 of 13 and 12 of 13 statements about satisfaction. Findings indicated that positive and negative relationships exist between social presence and satisfaction. Participants felt they were in close virtual proximity with other participants, and social presence can be fostered through text-based variables, such as emoticons, to compensate for lack of nonverbal or face-to-face cues. Therefore, agricultural communicators should use techniques that foster social presence to support virtual relationships and circulate agricultural information through chatting, messaging, and blogging