A Theoretical Framework for the Analysis of the West Nile Virus Epidemic

We present a model for the growth of West Nile virus in mosquito and bird populations based on observations of the initial epidemic in the U.S. Increase of bird mortality as a result of infection, which is a feature of the epidemic, is found to yield an effect which is observable in principle, viz., periodic variations in the extent of infection. The vast difference between mosquito and bird lifespans, another peculiarity of the system, is shown to lead to interesting consequences regarding delay in the onset of the steady-state infection. An outline of a framework is provided to treat mosquito diffusion and bird migration.Comment: 12 pages, 9 postscript figure

Efficacy of Aerial Spraying of Mosquito Adulticide in Reducing Incidence of West Nile Virus, California, 2005

One-sentence summary for table of contents: Aerial spraying reduced incidence of human infection

Environmental Predictors of Human West Nile Virus Infections, Colorado

To determine whether environmental surveillance of West Nile virus–positive dead birds, mosquito pools, equines, and sentinel chickens helped predict human cases in metropolitan Denver, Colorado, during 2003, we analyzed human surveillance data and environmental data. Birds successfully predicted the highest proportion of human cases, followed by mosquito pools, and equines

Investigating the spatial risk distribution of West Nile virus disease in birds and humans in southern Ontario from 2002 to 2005

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The West Nile virus (WNv) became a veterinary public health concern in southern Ontario in 2001 and has continued to threaten public health. Wild bird mortality has been shown to be an indicator for tracking the geographic distribution of the WNv. The purpose of this study was to investigate the latent risk distribution of WNv disease among dead birds and humans in southern Ontario and to compare the spatial risk patterns for the period 2002–2005. The relationship between the mortality fraction in birds and incidence rate in humans was also investigated.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Choropleth maps were created to investigate the spatial variation in bird and human WNv risk for the public health units of southern Ontario. The data were smoothed by empirical Bayesian estimation before being mapped. Isopleth risk maps for both the bird and human data were created to identify high risk areas and to investigate the potential relationship between the WNv mortality fraction in birds and incidence rates in humans. This was carried out by the geostatistical prediction method of kriging. A Poisson regression analysis was used to model regional human WNv case counts as a function of the spatial coordinates in the east and north direction and the regional bird mortality fractions. The presence of disease clustering and the location of disease clusters were investigated by the spatial scan test.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The isopleth risk maps exhibited high risk areas that were relatively constant from year to year. There was an overlap in the bird and human high risk areas, which occurred in the central-west and south-west areas of southern Ontario. The annual WNv cause-specific mortality fractions in birds for 2002 to 2005 were 31.9, 22.0, 19.2 and 25.2 positive birds per 100 birds tested, respectively. The annual human WNv incidence rates for 2002 to 2005 were 2.21, 0.76, 0.13 and 2.10 human cases per 100,000 population, respectively. The relative risk of human WNv disease was 0.72 times lower for a public health unit that was 100 km north of another public health unit. The relative risk of human WNv disease increased by the factor 1.44 with every 10 positive birds per 100 tested. The scan statistic detected disease cluster in the bird and human data. The human clusters were not significant, when the analysis was conditioned on the bird data.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The study indicates a significant relationship between the spatial pattern of WNv risk in humans and birds.</p

Research Article First evidence of West Nile virus amplification and relationship to

The spatio-temporal relationship between unusual sightings of dead birds and human West Nile virus infections has been observed in many studies and has been proposed as an indicator of an intense amplification cycle between birds and mosquitoes. However, to date, no single study has provided quantitative evidence that the amplification cycle occurs at the local level and that it operates within certain temporal parameters. Here, we use a novel geostatistical and spatial analytic methodology and present the first evidence that the localized unusual space–time correspondence of dead birds models the amplification cycle and that this cycle peaks 15–16 days prior to human onset of West Nile virus infections. During the process of establishing this relationship, we extend the traditional Knox space–time interaction measure to overcome pair-dependency limitations and use a novel implementation of the kappa non-chance agreement measure to identify the temporal characteristics of the association of bird deaths to human West Nile infections