Automated machine learning for COVID-19 forecasting

In the context of the current COVID-19 pandemic, various sophisticated epidemic and machine learning models have been used for forecasting. These models, however, rely on carefully selected architectures and detailed data that is often only available for specific regions. Automated machine learning (AutoML) addresses these challenges by allowing to automatically create forecasting pipelines in a data-driven manner, resulting in high-quality predictions. In this paper, we study the role of open data along with AutoML systems in acquiring high-performance forecasting models for COVID-19. Here, we adapted the AutoML framework auto-sklearn to the time series forecasting task and introduced two variants for multi-step ahead COVID-19 forecasting, which we refer to as (a) multi-output and (b) repeated single output forecasting. We studied the usefulness of anonymised open mobility datasets (place visits and the use of different transportation modes) in addition to open mortality data. We evaluated three drift adaptation strategies to deal with concept drifts in data by (i) refitting our models on part of the data, (ii) the full data, or (iii) retraining the models completely. We compared the performance of our AutoML methods in terms of RMSE with five baselines on two testing periods (over 2020 and 2021). Our results show that combining mobility features and mortality data improves forecasting accuracy. Furthermore, we show that when faced with concept drifts, our method refitted on recent data using place visits mobility features outperforms all other approaches for 22 of the 26 countries considered in our study.Algorithms and the Foundations of Software technolog

Agreement between physical therapists and radiologists of stratifying patients with shoulder pain into new treatment related categories using ultrasound; an exploratory study

© 2019 Elsevier Ltd Study design: A systematic overview of the literature and an agreement study. Objectives: The aim of this study is to explore the inter-professional agreement of diagnostic musculoskeletal ultrasound (DMUS) between physical therapists (PT) and radiologists, using a new classification strategy based upon the therapeutic consequences in patients with shoulder pain. Background: DMUS is frequently used by PTs, although the agreement regarding traditional diagnostic labels between PTs and radiologists is only fair. Nevertheless, DMUS could be useful when used as a stratifying-tool. Methods: First, a systematic overview of current evidence was performed to assess which traditional diagnostic labels could be recoded into new treatment related categories (referral to secondary care, corticosteroid injections, physical therapy, watchful waiting). Next, kappa values were calculated for these categories between PTs and radiologists. Results: Only three categories were extracted, as none of the traditional diagnostic labels were classified into the ‘corticosteroid injection’ category. Overall, we found moderate agreement to stratify patients into treatment related categories and substantial agreement for the category ‘referral to secondary care’. Both categories ‘watchful waiting’ and ‘indication for physical therapy’ showed moderate agreement between the two professions. Conclusion: Our results indicate that the agreement between radiologists and PTs is moderate to substantial when labelling is based on treatment consequences. DMUS might be able to help the PT to guide treatment, especially for the category ‘referral to secondary care’ as this showed the highest agreement. However, as this is just an explorative study, more research is needed, to validate and assess the consequences of this stratification classification for clinical care

Outcomes of a new slowly resorbable biosynthetic mesh (Phasix (TM)) in potentially contaminated incisional hernias : a prospective, multi-center, single-arm trial

Background: Resorbable biomaterials have been developed to reduce the amount of foreign material remaining in the body after hernia repair over the long-term. However, on the short-term, these resorbable materials should render acceptable results with regard to complications, infections, and reoperations to be considered for repair. Additionally, the rate of resorption should not be any faster than collagen deposition and maturation; leading to early hernia recurrence. Therefore, the objective of this study was to collect data on the short-term performance of a new resorbable biosynthetic mesh (Phasix (TM)) in patients requiring Ventral Hernia Working Group (VHWG) Grade 3 midline incisional hernia repair. Materials and methods: A prospective, multi-center, single-arm trial was conducted at surgical departments in 15 hospitals across Europe. Patients aged >= 18, scheduled to undergo elective Ventral Hernia Working Group Grade 3 hernia repair of a hernia larger than 10 cm(2) were included. Hernia repair was performed with Phasix (TM) Mesh in sublay position when achievable. The primary outcome was the rate of surgical site occurrence (SSO), including infections, that required intervention until 3 months after repair. Results: In total, 84 patients were treated with Phasix (TM) Mesh. Twenty-two patients (26.2%) developed 32 surgical site occurrences. These included 11 surgical site infections, 9 wound dehiscences, 7 seromas, 2 hematomas, 2 skin necroses, and 1 fistula. No significant differences in surgical site occurrence development were found between groups repaired with or without component separation technique, and between clean-contaminated or contaminated wound sites. At three months, there were no hernia recurrences. Conclusion: Phasix (TM) Mesh demonstrated acceptable postoperative surgical site occurrence rates in patients with a Ventral Hernia Working Group Grade 3 hernia. Longer follow-up is needed to evaluate the recurrence rate and the effects on quality of life. This study is ongoing through 24 months of follow-up

High tie versus low tie in rectal surgery: comparison of anastomotic perfusion

Item does not contain fulltextPURPOSE: Both "high tie" (HT) and "low tie" (LT) are well-known strategies in rectal surgery. The aim of this study was to compare colonic perfusion after HT to colonic perfusion after LT. METHODS: Patients undergoing rectal resection for malignancy were included. Colonic perfusion was measured with laser Doppler flowmetry, immediately after laparotomy on the antimesenterial side of the colon segment that was to become the afferent loop (measurement A). This measurement was repeated after rectal resection (measurement B). The blood flow ratios (B/A) were compared between the HT group and the LT group. RESULTS: Blood flow was measured in 33 patients, 16 undergoing HT and 17 undergoing LT. Colonic blood flow slightly decreased in the HT group whereas the flow increased in the LT group. The blood flow ratio was significantly higher in the LT group (1.48 vs. 0.91; p = 0.04), independent of the blood pressure. CONCLUSION: This study shows the blood flow ratio to be higher in the LT group. This suggests that anastomoses may benefit from better perfusion when LT is performed

Harmonic long shears further reduce operation time in transanal endoscopic microsurgery

Background: Previous research indicates that application of 5-mm harmonic shears rather than diathermia significantly reduces operation time in transanal endoscopic microsurgery (TEM). Frequently, however, additional instruments were required to complete resection. We investigated whether the new 5-mm harmonic long shears (H-LS) are better equipped for TEM compared with regular harmonic shears (HS). Methods: Between 2001 and 2006, 162 tumors (117 adenomas, 42 carcinomas, and 3 other tumors; mean distance 6.6 cm, mean area 40 cm2) were excised in 161 patients (82 men, 79 women; mean age 66 years). Results: Eighty-eight resections were performed with HS and 74 with H-LS. Tumor and patient characteristics were similar except for specimen area. Tumors resected by H-LS were on average smaller than those resected by HS (34.4 versus 44.1 cm2; Mann-Whitney U-test: p = 0.027). Mean operation time was 48 min and proportional to area in both groups (univariate analysis of variance p<0.001). Mean operation time was 54 min using HS and 41 min using H-LS (t-test: p<0.001). After correction for area, operation time for H-LS was reduced by 14% compared with HS (t-test: p<0.001). H-LS is singly capable of completing resection in 88% compared with 26% for HS (Mann- Whitney U-test: p<0.001). Mean blood loss was 16 cc for HS and 3 cc for H-LS (p<0.001). Morbidity (11%) and mortality (0.6%) were not different between the two groups (Fisher's exact test). Conclusion: Performing transanal endoscopic microsurgery with 5-mm harmonic long shears reduces operation time compared with regular shears, and completing resection seldom requires other instruments

Confirmation of a metastasis-specific microRNA signature in primary colon cancer

The identification of patients with high-risk stage II colon cancer who may benefit from adjuvant therapy may allow the clinical approach to be tailored for these patients based on an understanding of tumour biology. MicroRNAs have been proposed as markers of the prognosis or treatment response in colorectal cancer. Recently, a 2-microRNA signature (l et-7i and miR-10b) was proposed to identify colorectal cancer patients at risk of developing distant metastasis. We assessed the prognostic value of this signature and additional candidate microRNAs in an independent, clinically well-defined, prospectively collected cohort of primary colon cancer patients including stage I-II colon cancer without and stage III colon cancer with adjuvant treatment. The 2-microRNA signature specifically predicted hepatic recurrence in the stage I-II group, but not the overall ability to develop distant metastasis. The addition of miR-30b to the 2-microRNA signature allowed the prediction of both distant metastasis and hepatic recurrence in patients with stage I-II colon cancer who did not receive adjuvant chemotherapy. Available gene expression data allowed us to associate m iR-30b expression with axon guidance and l et-7i expression with cell adhesion, migration, and motility

Central coordination as an alternative for local coordination in a multicenter randomized controlled trial: the FAITH trial experience

Contains fulltext : 110505.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)BACKGROUND: Surgeons in the Netherlands, Canada and the US participate in the FAITH trial (Fixation using Alternative Implants for the Treatment of Hip fractures). Dutch sites are managed and visited by a financed central trial coordinator, whereas most Canadian and US sites have local study coordinators and receive per patient payment. This study was aimed to assess how these different trial management strategies affected trial performance. METHODS: Details related to obtaining ethics approval, time to trial start-up, inclusion, and percentage completed follow-ups were collected for each trial site and compared. Pre-trial screening data were compared with actual inclusion rates. RESULTS: Median trial start-up ranged from 41 days (P25-P75 10-139) in the Netherlands to 232 days (P25-P75 98-423) in Canada (p = 0.027). The inclusion rate was highest in the Netherlands; median 1.03 patients (P25-P75 0.43-2.21) per site per month, representing 34.4% of the total eligible population. It was lowest in Canada; 0.14 inclusions (P25-P75 0.00-0.28), representing 3.9% of eligible patients (p < 0.001). The percentage completed follow-ups was 83% for Canadian and Dutch sites and 70% for US sites (p = 0.217). CONCLUSIONS: In this trial, a central financed trial coordinator to manage all trial related tasks in participating sites resulted in better trial progression and a similar follow-up. It is therefore a suitable alternative for appointing these tasks to local research assistants. The central coordinator approach can enable smaller regional hospitals to participate in multicenter randomized controlled trials. Circumstances such as available budget, sample size, and geographical area should however be taken into account when choosing a management strategy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00761813

Interdependency of CEACAM-1, -3, -6, and -8 induced human neutrophil adhesion to endothelial cells

Members of the carcinoembryonic antigen family (CEACAMs) are widely expressed, and, depending on the tissue, capable of regulating diverse functions including tumor promotion, tumor suppression, angiogenesis, and neutrophil activation. Four members of this family, CEACAM1, CEACAM8, CEACAM6, and CEACAM3 (recognized by CD66a, CD66b, CD66c, and CD66d mAbs, respectively), are expressed on human neutrophils. CD66a, CD66b, CD66c, and CD66d antibodies each increase neutrophil adhesion to human umbilical vein endothelial cell monolayers. This increase in neutrophil adhesion caused by CD66 antibodies is blocked by CD18 mAbs and is associated with upregulation of CD11/CD18 on the neutrophil surface. To examine potential interactions of CEACAMs in neutrophil signaling, the effects on neutrophil adhesion to human umbilical vein endothelial cells of a set of CD66 mAbs was tested following desensitization to stimulation by various combinations of these mAbs. Addition of a CD66 mAb in the absence of calcium results in desensitization of neutrophils to stimulation by that CD66 mAb. The current data show that desensitization of neutrophils to any two CEACAMs results in selective desensitization to those two CEACAMs, while the cells remain responsive to the other two neutrophil CEACAMs. In addition, cells desensitized to CEACAM-3, -6, and -8 were still responsive to stimulation of CEACAM1 by CD66a mAbs. In contrast, desensitization of cells to CEACAM1 and any two of the other CEACAMs left the cells unresponsive to all CD66 mAbs. Cells desensitized to any combination of CEACAMs remained responsive to the unrelated control protein CD63. Thus, while there is significant independence of the four neutrophil CEACAMs in signaling, CEACAM1 appears to play a unique role among the neutrophil CEACAMs. A model in which CEACAMs dimerize to form signaling complexes could accommodate the observations. Similar interactions may occur in other cells expressing CEACAMs