Linking Sub-Tropical Evaporation and Extreme Precipitation Over East Antarctica: An Atmospheric River Case Study

We investigate an intense snowfall event between 15 and 18 February 2011 over the East Antarctic coastal region which contributed to roughly 24% of the annual snow accumulation. The event was previously associated with an atmospheric river, and here we use both Eulerian and Lagrangian analysis to gain an understanding of the processes contributing to the atmospheric river signature. The planetary-scale configuration during the event consisted of a persistent blocking situation resulting in a sustained meridional flow from the sub-tropics to the Antarctic ice sheet between 20 and 50°E. Within this configuration, synoptic-scale cyclogenesis contributed to slantwise ascent of moisture loaded air parcels toward Antarctica. Landfall of this cyclone’s warm sector coincided with the onset of Antarctic precipitation. Subsequently, a secondary cyclone developed along a pre-existing baroclinic zone. The rapid intensification and propagation speed of this mesoscale cyclone alongside the warm, moist air mass resulted in strong moisture flux convergence ahead of the cyclone, providing additional poleward moisture transport. The poleward progression of warm moist air and a corresponding decrease of sea-surface temperatures implied downward surface sensible and latent heat fluxes throughout the region of intense poleward moisture, roughly between 40 and 60°S. Hence, moisture uptake via surface evaporation was suppressed between the sub-tropics and the polar continent, favoring long-range transport. Identification of the surface moisture uptake region by tracing changes in moisture in air parcels confirmed the limited uptake of moisture during the poleward transport in this case study, with the primary moisture source for Antarctic precipitation located in the sub-tropics.publishedVersio

Characteristics of cold-air outbreak events and associated polar mesoscale cyclogenesis over the north Atlantic region

Equatorward excursions of cold polar air masses into ice-free regions, so-called cold-air outbreak (CAO) events, are frequently accompanied by the development of severe mesoscale weather features. Focusing on two key regions, the Labrador Sea and the Greenland–Norwegian Seas, we apply objective detection for both CAO events and polar mesoscale cyclones to outline the temporal evolution of CAO events and quantify associated mesoscale cyclogenesis. We introduce a novel metric, the CAO depth, which incorporates both the static stability and the temperature of the air mass. The large-scale atmospheric conditions during the onset of CAO events comprise a very cold upper-level trough over the CAO region and a surface cyclone downstream. As the CAO matures, the cold air mass extends southeastward, accompanied by lower static stability and enhanced surface fluxes. Despite the nearly 20° difference in latitude, CAO events over both regions exhibit similar evolution and characteristics including surface fluxes and thermodynamic structure. About two-thirds of the identified CAO events are accompanied by polar mesoscale cyclogenesis, with the majority of mesoscale cyclones originating inside the cold air masses. Neither the duration nor the maturity of the CAO event seems relevant for mesoscale cyclogenesis. Mesoscale cyclogenesis conditions during CAO events over the Labrador Sea are warmer, moister and exhibit stronger surface latent heat fluxes than their Norwegian Sea counterparts

An evaluation of surface meteorology and fluxes over the Iceland and Greenland Seas in ERA5 reanalysis: the impact of sea ice distribution

© The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Renfrew, I. A., Barrell, C., Elvidge, A. D., Brooke, J. K., Duscha, C., King, J. C., Kristiansen, J., Cope, T. L., Moore, G. W. K., Pickart, R. S., Reuder, J., Sandu, I., Sergeev, D., Terpstra, A., Vage, K., & Weiss, A. An evaluation of surface meteorology and fluxes over the Iceland and Greenland Seas in ERA5 reanalysis: the impact of sea ice distribution. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, (2020): 1-22, doi:10.1002/qj.3941.The Iceland and Greenland Seas are a crucial region for the climate system, being the headwaters of the lower limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Investigating the atmosphere–ocean–ice processes in this region often necessitates the use of meteorological reanalyses—a representation of the atmospheric state based on the assimilation of observations into a numerical weather prediction system. Knowing the quality of reanalysis products is vital for their proper use. Here we evaluate the surface‐layer meteorology and surface turbulent fluxes in winter and spring for the latest reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts, i.e., ERA5. In situ observations from a meteorological buoy, a research vessel, and a research aircraft during the Iceland–Greenland Seas Project provide unparalleled coverage of this climatically important region. The observations are independent of ERA5. They allow a comprehensive evaluation of the surface meteorology and fluxes of these subpolar seas and, for the first time, a specific focus on the marginal ice zone. Over the ice‐free ocean, ERA5 generally compares well to the observations of surface‐layer meteorology and turbulent fluxes. However, over the marginal ice zone, the correspondence is noticeably less accurate: for example, the root‐mean‐square errors are significantly higher for surface temperature, wind speed, and surface sensible heat flux. The primary reason for the difference in reanalysis quality is an overly smooth sea‐ice distribution in the surface boundary conditions used in ERA5. Particularly over the marginal ice zone, unrepresented variability and uncertainties in how to parameterize surface exchange compromise the quality of the reanalyses. A parallel evaluation of higher‐resolution forecast fields from the Met Office's Unified Model corroborates these findings.This study was part of the Iceland Greenland Seas Project. Funding was from the NERC AFIS grant (NE/N009754/1), the ALERTNESS (Advanced models and weather prediction in the Arctic: enhanced capacity from observations and polar process representations) project (Research Council of Norway project number 280573), the Trond Mohn Foundation (BFS2016REK01), and the National Science Foundation grant OCE‐1558742. The Leosphere WindCube v2 and the Wavescan buoy are part of the OBLO (Offshore Boundary Layer Observatory) infrastructure funded by the Research Council of Norway (project number 227777)

Dynamical Perspectives on the Formation and Intensification of Polar Lows

This thesis consists of a collection of scientific publications addressing dynamical aspects of the formation and intensification of polar lows. Polar lows are small scale, intense, short-lived cyclones developing over ice-free oceans at high latitudes. In the first paper, environmental atmospheric conditions during polar low genesis are identified. These environmental conditions are classified based on the direction between the thermal wind and the mean flow in the lower troposphere. If the thermal wind and mean flow are in opposite direction the environment is classified as reverse shear, if they are in the same direction the environment is classified as forward shear. The two types of pre-polar low environments exhibit distinctly different features in terms of synoptic scale patterns, baroclinicity, configurations of sea surface temperature, depth and stratification of the troposphere, polar low propagation directions, and surface fluxes. The ambient polar low environment during forward shear conditions resembles typical mid-latitude baroclinic cyclogenesis, whereas the reverse shear conditions are characterized by the presence of a synoptic scale, occluded low over the genesis location, and a strong low-level jet. In the second paper, a method to initialize baroclinic channel models is devised. The initial conditions are hydrostatically and geostrophically balanced, which makes them particularly suitable for studying rapid cyclogenesis. Furthermore, the method allows the definition of an arbitrary windfield, hence the initialization method exhibits a large degree of freedom in defining the initial conditions. We performed an unperturbed simulation which features minimal gravity wave activity, illustrating the balanced initial conditions. We also performed a perturbed simulation to examplify the utility of the setup. In this simulation baroclinic instability is triggered resulting in perturbation growth with time- and length-scales in agreement with observed polar low development. In the third paper, an idealized baroclinic channel model is utilized to investigate the role of latent heating during polar low development in forward shear conditions. Within this idealized setup, a low-level, weak, cyclonic perturbation is able to amplify in absence of upper-level forcing, radiation, or surface fluxes. Crucial for rapid development is sufficient latent heat release in the north-eastern quadrant of the cyclone. The potential for latent heat release to occur depends on the environmental relative humidity, baroclinicity and static stability. Due to the Arctic configuration of the setup, the perturbation depth is relative shallow, which in turn improves the effectiveness of latent heat release on cyclone amplification

Linking Sub-Tropical Evaporation and Extreme Precipitation Over East Antarctica: An Atmospheric River Case Study

We investigate an intense snowfall event between 15 and 18 February 2011 over the East Antarctic coastal region which contributed to roughly 24% of the annual snow accumulation. The event was previously associated with an atmospheric river, and here we use both Eulerian and Lagrangian analysis to gain an understanding of the processes contributing to the atmospheric river signature. The planetary-scale configuration during the event consisted of a persistent blocking situation resulting in a sustained meridional flow from the sub-tropics to the Antarctic ice sheet between 20 and 50°E. Within this configuration, synoptic-scale cyclogenesis contributed to slantwise ascent of moisture loaded air parcels toward Antarctica. Landfall of this cyclone’s warm sector coincided with the onset of Antarctic precipitation. Subsequently, a secondary cyclone developed along a pre-existing baroclinic zone. The rapid intensification and propagation speed of this mesoscale cyclone alongside the warm, moist air mass resulted in strong moisture flux convergence ahead of the cyclone, providing additional poleward moisture transport. The poleward progression of warm moist air and a corresponding decrease of sea-surface temperatures implied downward surface sensible and latent heat fluxes throughout the region of intense poleward moisture, roughly between 40 and 60°S. Hence, moisture uptake via surface evaporation was suppressed between the sub-tropics and the polar continent, favoring long-range transport. Identification of the surface moisture uptake region by tracing changes in moisture in air parcels confirmed the limited uptake of moisture during the poleward transport in this case study, with the primary moisture source for Antarctic precipitation located in the sub-tropics

Characteristics of Cold-Air Outbreak Events and Associated Polar Mesoscale Cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic Region

Equatorward excursions of cold polar air masses into ice-free regions, so-called Cold Air Outbreaks (CAO), are frequently accompanied by the development of severe mesoscale weather features. Focusing on two key regions, the Labrador Sea and the Greenland/Norwegian Sea, we apply objective detection for both CAO events and polar mesoscale cyclones to outline the temporal evolution of CAO events and quantify associated mesoscale cyclogenesis. We introduce a novel metric, the CAO-depth, which incorporates both the static stability and the temperature of the air mass. The large-scale atmospheric conditions during the onset of CAO events comprise a very cold upper level trough over the CAO region and a surface cyclone downstream. As the CAO matures, the cold air mass extends southeastward, accompanied by lower static stability and enhanced surface fluxes. Despite the nearly 20 degrees difference in latitude, CAO events over both regions exhibit similar evolution and characteristics including surface fluxes and thermodynamic structure. About 2/3rd of the identified CAO events are accompanied by polar mesoscale cyclogenesis, with the majority of mesoscale cyclones originating inside the cold air masses. Neither the duration nor the maturity of the CAO event seems relevant for mesoscale cyclogenesis. Mesoscale cyclogenesis conditions during CAO events over the Labrador Sea are warmer, moister, and exhibit stronger surface latent heat fluxes than their Norwegian Sea counterparts

Polar Lows - Moist Baroclinic Cyclones in Four Different Vertical Wind Shear Environments

Polar lows are intense mesoscale cyclones that develop in polar marine air masses. Motivated by the large variety of their proposed intensification mechanisms, cloud structure, and ambient sub-synoptic environment, we use self-organising maps to classify polar lows. The method is applied to 370 polar lows in the north-eastern Atlantic, which were obtained by matching mesoscale cyclones from the ERA-5 reanalysis to polar lows registered in the STARS dataset by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute. ERA-5 reproduces most of the STARS polar lows. We identify five different polar-low configurations which are characterised by the vertical wind shear vector, the change in the horizontal-wind vector with height, relative to the propagation direction. Four categories feature a strong shear with different orientations of the shear vector, whereas the fifth category contains conditions with weak shear. This confirms the relevance of a previously identified categorisation into forward- and reverse-shear polar lows. We expand the categorisation with right- and left-shear polar lows that propagate towards colder and warmer environments, respectively. For the strong-shear categories, the shear vector organises the moist-baroclinic dynamics of the systems. This is apparent in the low-pressure anomaly tilting with height against the shear vector and the main updrafts occurring along the warm front located in the forward-left direction relative to the shear vector. These main updrafts contribute to the intensification through latent heat release and are typically associated with comma-shaped clouds. Polar-low situations with a weak shear, which often feature spirali-form clouds, occur mainly at decaying stages of the development. We thus find no evidence for hurricane-like intensification of polar lows and propose instead that spiraliform clouds are associated with a warm seclusion process

Coupled atmosphere‐ocean observations of a cold air outbreak and its impact on the Iceland Sea

Marine cold air outbreaks are vigorous equatorward excursions of cold air over the ocean, responsible for the majority of wintertime oceanic heat loss from the subpolar seas of the North Atlantic. However, the impact of individual cold air outbreak (CAO) events on the ocean is poorly understood. Here we present the first coupled observations of the atmosphere and ocean during a wintertime CAO event, between 28 February and 13 March 2018, in the subpolar North Atlantic region. Comprehensive observations are presented from five aircraft flights, a research vessel, a meteorological buoy, a subsurface mooring, an ocean glider, and an Argo float. The CAO event starts abruptly with substantial changes in temperature, humidity, and wind throughout the atmospheric boundary layer. The CAO is well-mixed vertically and, away from the sea-ice edge, relatively homogeneous spatially. During the CAO peak, higher sensible heat fluxes occupy at least the lowest 200 m of the atmospheric boundary layer, while higher latent heat fluxes are confined to the surface layer. The response of the ocean to the CAO is spatially dependent. In the interior of the Iceland Sea the mixed layer cools, while in the boundary current region it warms. In both locations, the mixed layer deepens and becomes more saline. Combining our observations with one-dimensional mixed-layer modelling, we show that in the interior of the Iceland Sea, atmospheric forcing dominates the ocean response. In contrast, in the boundary current region lateral advection and mixing counteract the short-term impact of the atmospheric forcing. Time series observations of the late-winter period illustrate a highly variable ocean mixed layer, with lateral advection and mixing often masking the ocean's general cooling and deepening response to individual CAO events