Depressions in the Colombian Economic Growth Durng the XX Century: A Markov Switching Regime Model

In this paper, we modeled the Colombian long run economic growth (1925-2003) using a tworegime first order Markov switching model. We found evidence of non-linearity in the annual rate of economic growth. The results show that changes between regimes are sudden and sporadic. The Colombian economy remains in the sustainable growth regime most of the time. The turning points from the Markov switching model capture very well the behavior of real output through time. In fact, they identify the four main depressions of the century.Markov switching regime model, economic growth, fluctuations, Colombia

Colombian economic growth under Markov switching regimes with endogenous transition probabilities

In this paper, we modelled the Colombian long run per capita economic growth (1925-2005) using a Markov switching regime model with both fixed (FTP) and time-varying transition probabilities (TVTP) to explain regime changes in the economic growth. We found evidence of non-linearity in the per capita economic growth, and two different levels in the data associated with depression and sustainable growth regimes were identified. In addition, the hypothesis of fixed probabilities is rejected in favour of the time-varying transitional probabilities, meaning that the correct model is the one with endogenous probabilities, when the probability of remaining in the sustainable growth regime increases with a rise in terms of trade, government expenditures and decreases with capital outflows. On the other hand, increases in government expenditures and terms of trade decrease the probability of being in the depression state while an increase in capital outflows raises such probability. Finally, we found that TVTP model gives more information than FTP model because the probabilities have changed significantly during the period under analysis and the explanatory variables are very informative in dating the evolution of the state of the economy, especially those associated with external shocks.Markov endogenous switching regime model, Time-varying transition probabilities, economic growth, Colombia. Classification JEL: O40; C22; E32; N16.

Spatial Dependence and Economic Growth: Evidence from a panel of Countries

The empirical literature about economic growth has usually ignored spatial interdependence among countries. This paper uses spatial econometrics to estimates a growth model that includes cross-country interdependence, in whitch a country's economic growth depends on the growth rate of its neighbords. Based on a sample of 98 countries over three decades (1965-75,1975-85, 1985-95) we find that espatial relationschip across countries are quite relevant. A country's economic growt is indeed affected by the perfomance of its neighbors and then influenced by its own geographical position. This results suggests that the spillover effects among countries are important for growth.Our results indicate that spatial interrelation can not be ignored in the analysis of economic growth. Ignoring such relationships can result in model misspecification.Spatial economterics, economic growth, interdependence.

The Demographic Transition in Colombia: Theory and Evidence

The demographic transition from high to low mortality and fertility rates was one of the most important structural changes during the twentieth Century in most Latin American economies. This paper uses a simple economic framework based on Galor and Weil (2000) for understanding the main forces behind this structural transition; namely, increases in the returns to human capital accumulation driven by continuous advances in productivity led families to reduce the number of offspring and increase the level of investment in their education. As a result, the economy transits from a stage of stagnation subject to Malthusian forces to a stage of sustained economic growth, where increases in productivity lead to improvements in living standards. We use available data for Colombia between 1905 and 2005 to test the main predictions of the model with time series analysis, finding empirical evidence in their favor.Economic Growth, Demographic Transition, Colombia. Classification JEL: C32; J11; N36; O40; O54.

Evaluación Inclusiva y Calidad Educativa: Concreciones Conceptuales y Metodológicas

Este trabajo muestra el concepto de evaluación inclusiva en el marco de una escuela para todos. La evaluación inclusiva puede aportar información que influya en la toma de decisiones para que el proceso de enseñanza-aprendizaje se realice en las mejores condiciones. Para ello se ponen en juego las relaciones tan estrechas que existen entre evaluación inclusiva y calidad educativa. El desarrollo de centros inclusivos supone una apuesta decidida por la calidad. En ella están implicados diferentes agentes. Todos ellos deben contribuir a la creación de una cultura escolar inclusiva.This paper shows the concept of inclusive assessment as part of a school for everyone. Inclusive assessment can provide information to influence decision making for the teaching-learning process takes place under the best conditions. This will come into play such close relations between inclusive education quality assessment. The development of inclusive schools is a firm commitment to quality. It involved various stakeholders. They should all contribute to the creation of an inclusive school culture

Los nuevos planes de estudio en Pedagogía y Psicopedagogía en la Facultad de Ciencias de la Educación de la Universidad de Sevilla: avances y retos pendientes

Este artículo aborda el proceso de elaboración de los nuevos Planes de Estudio de Pedagogía y Psicopedagogía en la Facultad de Ciencias de la Educación de la Universidad de Sevilla. En primer lugar, se hace referencia al marco legislativo, para después entrar de lleno en la filosofía que ha regido la reforma de las titulaciones universitarias; este análisis sirve para contextualizar ese espíritu en los planes que en el curso 1998-99 se pondrán en marcha en nuestra facultad. Esta descripción finaliza señalando cuáles son las capacidades profesionales que se exigen al futuro Pedagogo y/o Psicopedagogo, atendiendo a publicaciones oficiales y a aportaciones teóricas recientes, refiriéndose al papel de la Universidad en la formación de estos profesionales. Finalmente, se plantean algunos avances realizados, como la actualización de contenidos, la mayor flexibilidad o la mejor orientación del Practicum. A modo de conclusión, se proponen desafíos pendientes y vías de actuación en relación a la nueva ordenación académica propuesta.This article deals with the process opened by the drawing up of a new Pedagogy and Psycopedagogy University Curriculum in Faculty of Sciencies Education in the University of Seville. First of all, we give some brief references to the legal frame and the aims of this process, we analyse the new curriculum the Pedagogy and Psycopedagogy studies in the course 1998-99. This description conclude analyzing the professional habilities required to this profesionals, we are special attention to the official papers and recent teorethical research on the role of the University. Finally, the author value some of the steps forward carried out, such us: the updating contents, the bigger flexibility and the better prácticum orientation. As a conclusion, some remaining challenges and performance guidelines for the new academic regulation are suggested

El proceso de convergencia Europea y la identidad de las universidades en la Europa del conocimiento

La armonización del sistema universitario con los países de nuestro entorno en el marco de la Unión Europea es uno de los principales retos que nos plantea la creación del Espacio Europeo de Educación Superior y de Investigación. En este proceso cada universidad tendrá que hacer un importante esfuerzo por situar su identidad de tal manera que pueda hacer frente a los retos de la competencia internacional, en un marco de autonomía institucional, a la vez que mantiene su compromiso con el acceso y la cohesión social. Para dar forma a este objetivo las acciones propuestas en la Declaración de Glasgow (2005) señalan la necesidad de que existan "Universidades fuertes para una Europa fuerte"; la Europa del conocimiento sólo se sostiene desde el compromiso efectivo de las universidades. En este contexto la planificación estratégica se considera uno de los instrumentos mas utilizados para dinamizar el desarrollo de las instituciones al tiempo que racionaliza los procesos de priorización y de secuenciación de las acciones a ejecutar.The harmonization of the university system with the countries of our environment in the frame of the European Union is one of the principal challenges that us raises the creation of the European Higher Education and Investigation Area. In this process every university will have to do an important effort for placing his identity in such a way that it could face to the challenges of the international competition, in a frame of institutional autonomy, simultaneously that supports his commitment with the access and the social cohesion. To give form to this aim the actions proposed in the Declaration of Glasgow (2005) indicate the need of that should exist " strong Universities for a strong Europe "; the Europe of the knowledge only is supported from the effective commitment of the universities. In this context the strategic planning is considered to be one of the instruments mas used to stir the development of the institutions into action at the time that rationalizes the processes of priorización and of sequence of the actions to execute

Los ferrocarriles y su impacto sobre la economía colombiana

Editada en la Fundación Empresa PúblicaRecientemente en Colombia ha surgido el interés por explicar los acontecimientos de la historia económica del país dentro del enfoque de la cliometría. Sin embargo, el análisis del transporte y su influencia sobre el desarrollo económico nacional no ha recibido suficiente atención. Este ensayo busca cubrir tal deficiencia; después de todo, éste es un tema central en el estudio de la historia económica de un país. El trabajo proporciona una nueva base de datos que contribuye al estudio del desarroUo del transporte terrestte en Colombia. El aporte principal del estudio consiste en demostrar que los ferrocarriles no jugarían un papel fundamental en el desarroUo de la economía colombiana.Recently in Colombia has emerged a new interest in explaining some facts in economic history within the context of cliometrics. However, the analysis of transportation infrastructure and its impact on the Colombian`s economic development has not received enough attention. The objective of this paper is to close this gap, after all transportation developments is a central topic in the study of country's economic history. This paper provides a new datábase that contribute to the study of transportation developments in Colombia. The main contribution is to demonstrate that railroads did not play an overwhelming role in Colombia's economy during the fírst half of the twentieth century.Publicad

Estrategias cognitivo-conductuales para el manejo del estrés en alumnos mexicanos de bachillerato internacional

El presente estudio se propuso probar la efectividad de las técnicas cognitivo conductuales en la disminución del estrés e identificar las más útiles para los estudiantes mexicanos de bachillerato internacional (bi). En la investigación participaron 16 alumnos en el grupo experimental y 11 en el grupo control. El programa constó de cinco sesiones en las que se aplicaron diferentes técnicas cognitivo-conductuales. En cada sesión se midió la percepción de efectividad en los participantes. Los resultados fueron los esperados. Se encontraron bajos puntajes de síntomas, estrés y pensamientos automáticos al finalizar el programa, lo que permite concluir que es necesario continuar con la aplicación de este tipo de intervenciones en estudiantes de bi en el mundo para mejorar su proceso de aprendizaje