Spatio-temporal patterns of IED usage by the Provisional Irish Republican Army

In this paper, a unique dataset of improvised explosive device attacks during “The Troubles” in Northern Ireland (NI) is analysed via a Hawkes process model. It is found that this past dependent model is a good fit to improvised explosive device attacks yielding key insights about the nature of terrorism in NI. We also present a novel approach to quantitatively investigate some of the sociological theory surrounding the Provisional Irish Republican Army which challenges previously held assumptions concerning changes seen in the organisation. Finally, we extend our use of the Hawkes process model by considering a multidimensional version which permits both self and mutual-excitations. This allows us to test how the Provisional Irish Republican Army responded to past improvised explosive device attacks on different geographical scales from which we find evidence for the autonomy of the organisation over the six counties of NI and Belfast. By incorporating a second dataset concerning British Security Force (BSF) interventions, the multidimensional model allows us to test counter-terrorism (CT) operations in NI where we find subsequent increases in violence

Smoking cessation and the reduction of disability progression in Multiple Sclerosis: a cohort study

Background: Smoking is associated with a more severe disease course in people with multiple sclerosis (MS). The magnitude of effect of smoking cessation on MS progression is unknown. The aim of this study was to quantify the impact of smoking cessation on reaching MS disability milestones. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study with retrospective reports. A comprehensive smoking questionnaire was sent to 1270 patients with MS registered between 1994 and 2013 in the Nottingham University Hospital MS Clinics database. Demographic and clinical data were extracted from the clinical database. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to estimate effects of smoke-free years on the time to Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores 4.0 and 6.0. MS Impact Scale 29 (MSIS-29) and Patient Determined Disease Steps (PDDS) were used to assess the physical and psychological impact of smoking. Results: Each ‘smoke-free year’ was associated with 0.96 (95% CI: 0.95 to 0.97) times decreased risk of reaching EDSS 4.0 and 0.97 (95%CI: 0.95 to 0.98) times decreased risk of reaching EDSS 6.0. Non-smokers showed a significantly lower level of disability in all the self-reported outcomes compared with current smokers. Conclusion: The reduction in the risk of disability progression after smoking cessation is significant and time-dependent. The earlier the patients quit, the stronger the reduction in the risk of reaching disability milestones. The quantitative estimates of the impact of smoking cessation on reaching disability milestones in MS can be used in interventional trials

Keystrokes: A practical exploration of semantic drift in timed word association tasks

This study investigates the phenomena of semantic drift through the lenses of language and situated simulation (LASS) and the word frequency effect (WFE) within a timed word association task. Our primary objectives were to determine whether semantic drift can be identified over the short time (25 seconds) of a free word association task (a predicted corollary of LASS), and whether more frequent terms are generated earlier in the process (as expected due to the WFE). Respondents were provided with five cue words (tree, dog, quality, plastic and love), and asked to write as many associations as they could. We hypothesized that terms generated later in the task (fourth time quartile, the last 19–25 seconds) would be semantically more distant (cosine similarity) from the cue word than those generated earlier (first quartile, the first 1–7 seconds), indicating semantic drift. Additionally, we explored the WFE by hypothesizing that earlier generated words would be more frequent and less diverse. Utilizing a dataset matched with GloVe 300B word embeddings, BERT and WordNet synsets, we analysed semantic distances among 1569 unique term pairs for all cue words across time. Our results supported the presence of semantic drift, with significant evidence of within-participant, semantic drift from the first to fourth time (LASS) and frequency (WFE) quartiles. In terms of the WFE, we observed a notable decrease in the diversity of terms generated earlier in the task, while more unique terms (greater diversity and relative uniqueness) were generated in the 4th time quartile, aligning with our hypothesis that more frequently used words dominate early stages of a word association task. We also found that the size of effects varied substantially across cues, suggesting that some cues might invoke stronger and more idiosyncratic situated simulations. Theoretically, our study contributes to the understanding of LASS and the WFE. It suggests that semantic drift might serve as a scalable indicator of the invocation of language versus simulation systems in LASS and might also be used to explore cognition within word association tasks more generally. The findings also add a temporal and relational dimension to the WFE. Practically, our research highlights the utility of word association tasks in understanding semantic drift and the diffusion of word usage over a sub-minute task, arguably the shortest practically feasible timeframe, offering a scalable method to explore group and individual changes in semantic relationships, whether via the targeted diffusion of influence in a marketing campaign, or seeking to understand differences in cognition more generally. Possible practical uses and opportunities for future research are discussed

Scanning Tunneling Microscope Images of Adenine and Thymine at Atomic Resolution

The scanning tunneling microscope has been used to obtain images of DNA that reveal its major and minor grooves and the direction of helical coiling, but sufficient resolution has not yet been achieved to identify its bases. To determine if this technology is capable of identifying individual DNA bases, we have examined the molecular arrangements of adenine and thymine attached to the basal plane of highly oriented pyrolytic graphite. Both molecules form highly organized lattices following deposition on heated graphite. Lattice dimensions, structural periodicities, and the epitaxy of adenine and thymine molecules with respect to the basal plane of graphite have been determined. Images of these molecules at atomic resolution reveal that the aromatic regions are strongly detected in both molecules while the various side-groups are not well-resolved. These studies provide the first evidence that tunneling microscopy can be used to discriminate between purines and pyrimidines

Coordinate based random effect size meta-analysis of neuroimaging studies

Low power in neuroimaging studies can make them difficult to interpret, and Coordinate based meta-analysis (CBMA) may go some way to mitigating this issue. CBMA has been used in many analyses to detect where published functional MRI or voxel-based morphometry studies testing similar hypotheses report significant summary results (coordinates) consistently. Only the reported coordinates and possibly t statistics are analysed, and statistical significance of clusters is determined by coordinate density. Here a method of performing coordinate based random effect size meta-analysis and meta-regression is introduced. The algorithm (ClusterZ) analyses both coordinates and reported t statistic or Z score, standardised by the number of subjects. Statistical significance is determined not by coordinate density, but by a random effects meta-analyses of reported effects performed cluster-wise using standard statistical methods and taking account of censoring inherent in the published summary results. Type 1 error control is achieved using the false cluster discovery rate (FCDR), which is based on the false discovery rate. This controls both the family wise error rate under the null hypothesis that coordinates are randomly drawn from a standard stereotaxic space, and the proportion of significant clusters that are expected under the null. Such control is necessary to avoid propagating and even amplifying the very issues motivating the meta-analysis in the first place. ClusterZ is demonstrated on both numerically simulated data and on real data from reports of grey matter loss in multiple sclerosis (MS) and syndromes suggestive of MS, and of painful stimulus in healthy controls. The software implementation is available to download and use freely

Large-Mass Ultra-Low Noise Germanium Detectors: Performance and Applications in Neutrino and Astroparticle Physics

A new type of radiation detector, a p-type modified electrode germanium diode, is presented. The prototype displays, for the first time, a combination of features (mass, energy threshold and background expectation) required for a measurement of coherent neutrino-nucleus scattering in a nuclear reactor experiment. The device hybridizes the mass and energy resolution of a conventional HPGe coaxial gamma spectrometer with the low electronic noise and threshold of a small x-ray semiconductor detector, also displaying an intrinsic ability to distinguish multiple from single-site particle interactions. The present performance of the prototype and possible further improvements are discussed, as well as other applications for this new type of device in neutrino and astroparticle physics (double-beta decay, neutrino magnetic moment and WIMP searches).Comment: submitted to Phys. Rev.

COVID-19 communication management in Europe: A comparative analyses of the effect of information-seeking in the public’s sense making in Italy, Spain and the UK

Governments around the world have shown poor capabilities in responding effectively to the COVID-19 health emergency outbreaks. After the declaration of COVID-19 as an international pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on the 31st of January 2020, three countries experienced the greatest initial impact in Europe. Sequentially Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom (UK) were hit by the highest numbers of contagion and death in the first few months in Europe. The aim of this paper is to assess how information channels and sources influenced the public’s evaluation of the three government’s communication response strategies. An online survey was conducted between March 14 and April 14, 2020, during the first wave of lockdowns and declarations of States of Emergency in the three countries. Findings show particularities for the different countries, but also similarities in response and reactions of the public in the three scenarios. The response strategy of the UK Government was the most untrusted and criticized by citizens. In contrast the Italian and Spanish Governments, which both chose to respond with the severest restrictions, attracted more support from citizens, especially in Italy, which was the first to close borders and impose lockdowns for the population. Despite the national differences in the preference of information channels and sources, overall, an empirical relationship between government communication assessment and media use were found in all the scenarios. This empirical study has theoretical and practical implications. Theoretically, findings will add evidence of implications of the Channel Complementary Theory to the field of risk, crisis and emergency communication. The results also provide insights for communication practitioners in the public sector of how forms of information and trust in sources influence the public’s assessment of authorities’ communication. Implications for theory and empirical research about communication during a health pandemic are identified and discussed

Experimental constraints on a dark matter origin for the DAMA annual modulation effect

A claim for evidence of dark matter interactions in the DAMA experiment has been recently reinforced. We employ a new type of germanium detector to conclusively rule out a standard isothermal galactic halo of Weakly Interacting Massive Particles (WIMPs) as the explanation for the annual modulation effect leading to the claim. Bounds are similarly imposed on a suggestion that dark pseudoscalars mightlead to the effect. We describe the sensitivity to light dark matter particles achievable with our device, in particular to Next-to-Minimal Supersymmetric Model candidates.Comment: v4: introduces recent results from arXiv:0807.3279 and arXiv:0807.2926. Sensitivity to pseudoscalars is revised in light of the first. Discussion on the subject adde

Results from a Search for Light-Mass Dark Matter with a P-type Point Contact Germanium Detector

We report on several features present in the energy spectrum from an ultra low-noise germanium detector operated at 2,100 m.w.e. By implementing a new technique able to reject surface events, a number of cosmogenic peaks can be observed for the first time. We discuss several possible causes for an irreducible excess of bulk-like events below 3 keVee, including a dark matter candidate common to the DAMA/LIBRA annual modulation effect, the hint of a signal in CDMS, and phenomenological predictions. Improved constraints are placed on a cosmological origin for the DAMA/LIBRA effect.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures. v2: submitted version. Minimal changes in wording, one reference adde