New Zealand bicycle helmet law - do the costs outweigh the benefits?

Objectives: This paper examines the cost effectiveness of the compulsory bicycle helmet wearing low (HWL) introduced in New Zealand on 1 January 1994. The societal perspective of costs is used for the purchase of helmets and the value of injuries averted. This is augmented with healthcare costs averted from reduced head injuries. Methods: Three age groups were examined: cyclists aged 5-12 years, 13-18 years, and greater than or equal to19 years. The number of head and non-head injuries averted were obtained from epidemiological studies. Estimates of the numbers of cyclists and the costs of helmets are used to derive the total spending on new bicycle helmets. Healthcare costs were obtained from national hospitalisation database, and the value of injuries averted was obtained directly from a willingness-to-pay survey undertaken by the Land Transport Safety Authority. Cost effectiveness ratios, benefit:cost ratios, and the value of net benefits were estimated. Results: The net benefit (benefit:cost ratios) of the HWL for the 5-12, 13-18, and greater than or equal to19 year age groups was $0.3m (2.6), -$0.2m (0.8), and -$1.5m (0.7) (in NZ$, 2000 prices; NZ $1.00 = US$0.47 = UK pound0.31 approx). These results were most sensitive to the cost and life of helmets, helmet wearing rates before the HWL, and the effectiveness of helmets in preventing head injuries. Conclusions: The HWL was cost saving in the youngest age group but large costs from the law were imposed on adult (greater than or equal to19 years) cyclists

Assimilation of MSG land-surface temperature into land-surface model simulations to constrain estimates of surface energy budget in West Africa

In the semi-arid regions of West Africa the surface energy partition is related closely to near surface moisture availability. Such moisture availability exhibits marked heterogeneity at scales of a few kilometres, related to the passage of storm systems during the previous one or two days. The associated variations in surface fluxes affect planetary boundary layer properties at the mesoscale, which may in turn affect rainfall and the seasonal development of the West African monsoon. Atmosphere models used to study this land-atmosphere coupling are sensitive to the soil moisture initial condition. There exists no observation network for soil moisture in West Africa, so models rely on data from atmosphere analyses, which are often unable to describe adequately surface variation at the mesoscale. Additionally, retrospective estimates of the seasonal surface energy and water budgets using land-surface models are biased by persistent model errors in soil moisture. Anomalies in near-surface (top few centimetres) soil moisture are anti-correlated with anomalies in land-surface brightness temperature, which is observed by the SEVIRI thermal infra-red sensors onboard the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites. Here, we present methods developed for assimilating the MSG land-surface temperature product from the Land SAF to constrain estimates of the surface energy and water budgets using the JULES land-surface model. This MSG temperature product has a pixel size of approximately 3 km in this region, and is known to provide information of surface wetness anomalies at the scales of interest. The results will provide, for a large region of West Africa, improved initial conditions for modelling studies and seasonal estimates of the surface energy and water budgets

The Purchasing Power Parity Debate

Originally propounded by the sixteenth-century scholars of the University of Salamanca, the concept of purchasing power parity (PPP) was revived in the interwar period in the context of the debate concerning the appropriate level at which to re-establish international exchange rate parities. Broadly accepted as a long-run equilibrium condition in the post-war period, it was first advocated as a short-run equilibrium by many international economists in the first few years following the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s and then increasingly came under attack on both theoretical and empirical grounds from the late 1970s to the mid 1990s. Accordingly, over the last three decades, a large literature has built up that examines how much the data deviated from theory, and the fruits of this research have provided a deeper understanding of how well PPP applies in both the short run and the long run. Since the mid 1990s, larger datasets and nonlinear econometric methods, in particular, have improved estimation. As deviations narrowed between real exchange rates and PPP, so did the gap narrow between theory and data, and some degree of confidence in long-run PPP began to emerge again. In this respect, the idea of long-run PPP now enjoys perhaps its strongest support in more than thirty years, a distinct reversion in economic thought.

Evaluating rammed earth aalls: a case study

The following research has been undertaken as a response to the recent controversy regarding the suitability of rammed earth wall construction as an effective building envelope. Empirical (in-situ) measurements of temperature and heat flux are taken on the walls of an existing rammed earth building in New South Wales, Australia. An analysis is performed which examines the influence of walls, floor, ceiling and windows on the recorded temperatures within the building. It appears that diffuse sky radiation transmitted by the windows is an important factor in the summer heat load, and that night time cooling coupled with thermal mass has a valuable conditioning effect.<br /

Interactive Management and Updating of Spatial Data Bases

The decision making process, whether for power plant siting, load forecasting or energy resource planning, invariably involves a blend of analytical methods and judgement. Management decisions can be improved by the implementation of techniques which permit an increased comprehension of results from analytical models. Even where analytical procedures are not required, decisions can be aided by improving the methods used to examine spatially and temporally variant data. How the use of computer aided planning (CAP) programs and the selection of a predominant data structure, can improve the decision making process is discussed

What determines self-employment? : a comparative study

This article consists of a comparative study of the incidence of self-employment (SE) between Greece, which has the highest rate of SE in the European Union and the United Kingdom, which has amongst the lowest. Data from the Greek and the UK Labour Force Surveys are used in order to assess how personal attributes of an individual have an impact on the incidence of SE. It is found that common patterns exist between these two countries. In particular, it is found that for both countries, males have greater odds of being self-employed than females, older people have greater odds than younger, individuals employed in the primary and tertiary sectors have greater odds than the ones employed in the secondary, and that individuals with primary or secondary education have greater odds of being self-employed than individuals holding higher degrees. The incidence of SE is also found to differ according to the occupation of the individual. On the other hand, the findings indicate that individuals, residing in London, have greater odds of being self-employed than individuals working outside UK's capital, whereas in Greece the pattern is reversed

Robust Inference on Seasonal Unit Roots via a Bootstrap Applied to OECD Macroeconomic Series

Recent experimental results presented in Burridge and Taylor (2001a,b, and 2003) show that, as usually implemented, the Hylleberg et al. (1990) seasonal unit root tests can be rather liberal, with true level often substantially higher than nominal level. This effect is due to the presence of any of three things: data-based lag selection in the implementation of the tests, and either or both periodic heteroscedasticity and serial correlation in the driving shocks. Burridge and Taylor (2003) demonstrate that under experimental conditions a carefully implemented bootstrap substantially corrects test level without loss of power. The present study applies their technique to a large number of publicly available series, and demonstrates conclusively that the bootstrap produces less liberal, and, given the experimental results cited above, more reliable inference. We report results for Sweden, the UK and the US, which are typical of the fifteen countries in our panel. Other results, the GAUSS code, and raw data are all available at: www.staff.city.ac.uk/p.burridge

Phase space polarization and the topological string: a case study

We review and elaborate on our discussion in hep-th/0606112 on the interplay between the target space and the worldsheet description of the open topological string partition function, for the example of the conifold. We discuss the appropriate phase space and canonical form for the system. We find a map between choices of polarization and the worldsheet description, based on which we study the behavior of the partition function under canonical transformations.Comment: 18 pages, invited review for MPL