Forecasting Intraday Time Series with Multiple Seasonal Cycles Using Parsimonious Seasonal Exponential Smoothing

This paper concerns the forecasting of seasonal intraday time series. An extension of Holt-Winters exponential smoothing has been proposed that smoothes an intraday cycle and an intraweek cycle. A recently proposed exponential smoothing method involves smoothing a different intraday cycle for each distinct type of day of the week. Similar days are allocated identical intraday cycles. A limitation is that the method allows only whole days to be treated as identical. We introduce an exponential smoothing formulation that allows parts of different days of the week to be treated as identical. The result is a method that involves the smoothing and initialisation of fewer terms than the other two exponential smoothing methods. We evaluate forecasting up to a day ahead using two empirical studies. For electricity load data, the new method compares well with a range of alternatives. The second study involves a series of arrivals at a call centre that is open for a shorter duration at the weekends than on weekdays. By contrast with the previously proposed exponential smoothing methods, our new method can model in a straightforward way this situation, where the number of periods on each day of the week is not the same.Exponential smoothing; Intraday data; Electricity load; Call centre arrivals.

Physiological Effects of Chronic Copper Exposure to Rainbow Trout (\u3cem\u3eOncorhynchus Mykiss\u3c/em\u3e) in Hard and Soft Water: Evaluation of Chronic Indicators

Effects of chronic copper exposure on a suite of indicators were examined: acute toxicity, acclimation, growth, sprint performance, whole-body electrolytes, tissue residues, and gill copper binding characteristics. Juvenile rainbow trout were exposed for 30 d to waterborne copper in hard water (hardness = 120 μg/L as CaCO3, pH = 8.0, Cu = 20 and 60 μg/L) and soft water (hardness = 20 μg/L as CaCO3, pH = 7.2, Cu = 1 and 2 μg/L). Significant acclimation to the metal occurred only in fish exposed to 60 mg/L, as seen by an approx. twofold increase in 96-h LC50 (153 vs 91 μg Cu/L). Chronic copper exposure had little or no effect on survival, growth, or swimming performance in either water hardness, nor was there any initial whole-body electrolyte loss (Na+ and Cl-). The present data suggest that the availability of food (3% wet body weight/day, distributed as three 1% meals) prevented growth inhibition and initial ion losses that usually result from Cu exposure. Elevated metal burdens in the gills and livers of exposed fish were measures of chronic copper exposure but not of effect. Initial gill binding experiments revealed the necessity of using radiolabeled Cu (64Cu) to detect newly accumulated Cu against gill background levels. Using this method, we verified the presence of saturable Cu-binding sites in the gills of juvenile rainbow trout and were able to make estimates of copperbinding affinity (log Kgill=Cu) and capacity (Bmax). Furthermore, we showed that both chronic exposure to Cu and to low water calcium had important effects on the Cu-binding characteristics of the gills

Cost effective combined axial fan and throttling valve control of ventilation rate

This paper is concerned with Proportional-Integral-Plus (PIP) control of ventilation rate in mechanically ventilated agricultural buildings. In particular, it develops a unique fan and throttling valve control system for a 22m3 test chamber, representing a section of a livestock building or glasshouse, at the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven. Here, the throttling valve is employed to restrict airflow at the outlet, so generating a higher static pressure difference over the control fan. In contrast with previous approaches, however, the throttling valve is directly employed as a second control actuator, utilising airflow from either the axial fan or natural ventilation. The new combined fan/valve configuration is compared with a commercially available PID-based controller and a previously developed scheduled PIP design, yielding a reduction in power consumption in both cases of up to 45%

Model evaluation of target product profiles of an infant vaccine against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in a developed country setting

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of lower respiratory tract disease in children worldwide and is a significant cause of hospital admissions in young children in England. No RSV vaccine has been licensed but a number are under development. In this work, we present two structurally distinct mathematical models, parameterized using RSV data from the UK, which have been used to explore the effect of introducing an RSV paediatric vaccine to the National programme. We have explored different vaccine properties, and dosing regimens combined with a range of implementation strategies for RSV control. The results suggest that vaccine properties that confer indirect protection have the greatest effect in reducing the burden of disease in children under 5 years. The findings are reinforced by the concurrence of predictions from the two models with very different epidemiological structure. The approach described has general application in evaluating vaccine target product profiles

Black Bear

The American black bear (Ursus americanus, Figure 1) is a challenging species for wildlife agencies to manage due to its size, intelligence, extensive range, food habits, and adaptability, as well as societal views. In North America alone, agencies receive more than 40,000 complaints about black bear annually. Black bears are known as ‘food-driven’ animals, meaning most conflicts result from a bear’s drive to meet its nutritional needs. Not surprisingly, an overwhelming proportion of conflicts are related to their use of anthropogenic (human) food sources, such as garbage, bird food, and crops. Understanding what drives human-bear conflict is the first part of good management. Methods to manage human-bear conflicts can be grouped into two general categories: proactive and reactive. Proactive management attempts to change human behavior and prevent conflict, or keep it from recurring. Examples of proactive management include removing attractants, education and awareness, and exclusion. Conversely, reactive management attempts to change bear behavior or results in the lethal removal of the bear. Prior to any management action, there are important factors that managers and homeowners should consider. First, many of the methods described herein are only permissible to licensed personnel, such as state and federal biologists and wildlife managers. It is up to the individual to know which strategies are legal by reviewing local laws and agency websites. Also, it is important to note that any action plan should consider the side effects of the action and include a system for monitoring efficacy (short and long-term reactions of the bear). Documenting the season, time of day, type of conflict, and any information about the bear(s) involved is important for monitoring results. Be aware that the removal of the offending bear may open up its territory to other bear and conflicts, if the cause of the conflict is not mitigated

Growth Ring Characteristics, Specific Gravity, and Fiber Length of Rapidly Grown Loblolly Pine

Intensive thinning, understory control, and green pruning of loblolly pine trees growing on a test area near Crossett, Arkansas, have produced trees with a diameter of 18.9 inches at breast heights in 35 years. Large increment borings extracted from experimental trees and control trees were examined for growth patterns and wood properties alternations related to growth rate differences.During some growth periods, radial growth of test trees was almost three times as great as radial growth of control trees. In the outer juvenile wood formed after the first thinning, growth rate differences were greatest between experimental trees. During the last 10 years of the study (mature wood zone), growth rate differences between treated and control trees were not as great, and there were no significant differences in latewood percentage or tracheid length. Specific gravity was not significantly influenced by growth rate differences in any growth zone. This result leads to the conclusion that trees can be rapidly grown without affecting specific gravity

The safety of electrical stimulation in patients with pacemakers and implantable cardioverter defibrillators: A systematic review

Introduction: A number of patients are excluded from electrical stimulation treatment because there is concern that electrical stimulation could cause electromagnetic interference with pacemakers and implanted cardioverter defibrillators. The decision to use electrical stimulation in these patients needs to be supported by an assessment of benefit and harm. Methods: We conducted a systematic review of the risk of electromagnetic interference between electrical stimulation and pacemakers or implanted cardioverter defibrillators. We included the electronic databases MEDLINE and EMBASE in the time period between 1966 and 26 August 2016. Results: 18 papers fulfilled the inclusion criteria (eight safety studies and ten case studies). Although we were unable to accurately estimate the risk of electromagnetic interference, the studies revealed that patients having electrical stimulation of the lower limb are less susceptible to electromagnetic interference. Conclusions: The results suggest that electrical stimulation could be used safely to help drop foot in patients with pacemakers or implanted cardioverter defibrillators. However, in order to obtain an accurate estimate of the risk of electromagnetic interference, a large, long-term, and intervention-specific safety study is required. Until such a study is undertaken, electrical stimulation should be used with caution in patients with pacemakers and implanted cardioverter defibrillators

Introduction to Special Issue of \u3ci\u3eJournal of Defense Modeling and Simulation\u3c/i\u3e: Novel Approaches to Defense and Military Modeling and Simulation

Developing solutions to complex problems in government and industry is a daunting task that often requires tremendous investment in time and resources to solve. Modeling and simulation (M&S) has incredible potential to streamline development and cut costs by conducting virtual experiments that give insight into performance under various test conditions. As many program managers in the federal acquisition process can attest, realistic testing of live equipment in an operational environment can be some of the most expensive parts of a development program. M&S can provide insight into mission success of yetto- bedesigned systems without the need to actually build and test the system in the real world. Similarly, M&S tools can evaluate human effectiveness under various scenarios while only risking the virtual lives of avatars. When properly applied, M&S capabilities provide critical insight that allows leaders to make smart decisions about how to accomplish the mission and increase human performance more quickly and at lower cost and risk than reliance on real-world testing. Throughout this special issue, we examine a variety of novel M&S concepts that promise to deliver simulation results to the defense and military community that positively impact system-level mission studies and human effectiveness research. These M&S tools not only affect the defense and military community, but can also have application to a wide variety of government and industry users with needs to solve similar problem sets. Whether the end goal is cost savings, operational analysis or refinement of sub-components, the M&S concepts described in this special issue testify to the power that these tools can provide to help decision makers efficiently allocate scarce resources and provide improved performance of humans and the systems that they operate in the long run

Systems Integration Processes for NASA Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle

NASA's Exploration Initiative will require development of many new elements to constitute a robust system of systems. New launch vehicles are needed to place cargo and crew in stable Low Earth Orbit (LEO). This paper examines the systems integration processes NASA is utilizing to ensure integration and control of propulsion and nonpropulsion elements within NASA's Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV), now known as the Ares I. The objective of the Ares I is to provide the transportation capabilities to meet the Constellation Program requirements for delivering a Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) or other payload to LEO in support of the lunar and Mars missions. The Ares I must successfully provide this capability within cost and schedule, and with an acceptable risk approach. This paper will describe the systems engineering management processes that will be applied to assure Ares I Project success through complete and efficient technical integration. Discussion of technical review and management processes for requirements development and verification, integrated design and analysis, integrated simulation and testing, and the integration of reliability, maintainability and supportability (RMS) into the design will also be included. The Ares I Project is logically divided into elements by the major hardware groupings, and associated management, system engineering, and integration functions. The processes to be described herein are designed to integrate within these Ares I elements and among the other Constellation projects. Also discussed is launch vehicle stack integration (Ares I to CEV, and Ground and Flight Operations integration) throughout the life cycle, including integrated vehicle performance through orbital insertion, recovery of the first stage, and reentry of the upper stage. The processes for decomposing requirements to the elements and ensuring that requirements have been correctly validated, decomposed, and allocated, and that the verification requirements are properly defined to ensure that the system design meets requirements, will be discussed